Semiparametric Point Process and Time Series Models for Series of Events

We are dealing with series of events occurring at random times tau_n and carrying further quantitive information xi_n . Examples are sequences of extrasystoles in ECG­records. We will present two approaches for analyzing such (typically long) sequences (tau_n, xi_n ), n = 1, 2, ... . (i) A point process model is based on an intensity of the form alpha(t) * b_t(theta), t >= 0, with b_t a stochastic intensity of the self­exciting type. (ii) A time series approach is based on a transitional GLM. The conditional expectation of the waiting time sigma_{n+1} = tau_{n+1} - tau_n is set to be v(tau_n) * h(eta_n(theta)), with h a response function and eta_n a regression term. The deterministic functions alpha and v, respectively, describe the long-term trend of the process

A Managerial Perspective on the Logic of Increasing Returns

The focus of this study is on the challenges faced by managers in effectively dealing with the new management logic of increasing returns as the information and knowledge intensity of their transformation processes rises. Dealing with these challenges is especially relevant for companies currently making the transition from capital and physical labor intensive transformation processes (old economy) to information and knowledge intensive transformation processes (new economy). For these companies, this study provides a definition of increasing returns, explains the sources of increasing returns and develops tools for monitoring the realization of increasing returns. These tools are applied at the Randstad Group, a leading temporary employment agency based in the Netherlands, currently making the transition from the old to the new economy. The study concludes with a discussion of the management implications of the new logic of increasing returns and suggestions for further research.management;economics;interaction effects;increasing returns;network effects

The Long-Run Relationship Between Commerce And Sustainable Development In Baltic And Central And Eastern European Countries

The paper investigates the long-run relationship between commerce intensity and a measure of sustainable development for ten ex-communist countries that have recently joined the EU. The originality of this paper consists in applying the co-integration testing techniques for panel data regarding commerce and the “authentic” savings rate, an indicator of sustainable development, which determines the productive base that will be inherited by future generations. Econometric tests suggest a negative long-run relationship between commerce intensity and sustainable development. This result is in agreement with conclusions of other studies that have documented, in the region, an economic growth fueled by the adoption of unsustainable western consumption ideals, a low public consciousness about ecological values and weak institutions dealing with environmental issues at both government and civil society level. The negative correlation that was found could be a symptom for an evolution stage towards an economic and social maturity where commerce expansion is synchronized with accumulation of wealth that will be inherited by future generations.sustainable development, commerce, Central and Eastern Europe, genuine savings, co-integration, panel data

Can declining energy intensity mitigate climate change? Decomposition and meta-regression results

Drawing on the Kaya identity, we assess the role of the main driver of the decline in carbon intensity, namely the (economic) energy intensity. Using meta-significance testing for a sample of 44 studies, dealing with the causality between energy and GDP, we find that both variables are strongly coupled. Hence, after having exhausted energy savings from nonrecurring structural changes, the economic energy intensity may soon converge than being arbitrarily reducible. We suggest, therefore, not to rely on further reductions of economic energy intensity but rather to invest in the reduction of the carbon intensity of energy to mitigate climate change

Satellite magnetic modeling of north African hot spots

The primary objectives of the MAGSAT mission was to measure the intensity and direction of magnetization of the Earth's crust. A significant effort was directed to the large crustal anomalies first delineated by the POGO mission. The MAGSAT data are capable of spatial resolution of the crustal field to 250 km wavelength with reliability limits to less than 1 nT in the mean. The difficulties of dealing with less than the most robust of the MAGSAT anomalies is that often there is no more than the magnetic fields themselves to constrain geophysical models of the interior, and no independent means of assessing the quality of the crustal anomaly data in interpreting the subsurface are available

The Employment Potential of Site Remediation Policies: A Micro-Economic Simulation

This paper deals with the impact on employment of a particular environmental protection policy: contaminated site remediation. We provide quantitative results on the employment level and also on qualifications in the case of France, by making different assumptions regarding the number of sites to be cleaned up and the decontamination level. We use a composite methodology: the engineering estimation method to obtain costs and direct jobs and a reversed input-output matrix to assess indirect employment, i.e., jobs incurred by the production of inputs. Given the high diversity of contaminated sites, we have selected two case studies, the first gathering gasworks and coke ovens and the other dealing with petrol filling stations. As regards the level of decontamination for each site, labour intensity follows a 'bell curve' with the highest labour intensity for intermediate levels of decontamination. By contrast, an increase in the number of sites to be treated has an important positive net effect on employment. Hence, a programme of site remediation of a large number of sites, preferably with an intermediate level of decontamination, would lead to a significant increase in employment, even when we take into account the jobs destroyed elsewhere in the economy by the funding of the clean-up.

Identification and control of spacecraft radiation sources of interference to X-ray and gamma-ray experiments

Apollo 15 and 16 will carry instruments for the purpose of measuring X-ray and gamma ray fluxes from the lunar surface and in cis-lunar space. The intensity levels expected are low over most of the energy range of interest, requiring that background contributions be minimized. The radiation sources on Apollo determined and their interference with these instruments evaluated. The results were used as a basis for dealing with this problem and for recommendations applicable to future manned and unmanned missions