Learning Algorithms for Stochastic Dynamic Pricing and Inventory Control.

This dissertation considers joint pricing and inventory control problems in which the customer's response to selling price and the demand distribution are not known a priori, and the only available information for decision-making is the past sales data. Data-driven algorithms are developed and proved to converge to the true clairvoyant optimal policy had decision maker known the demand processes a priori, and, for the first time in literature, this dissertation provides theoretical results on the convergence rate of these data-driven algorithms. Under this general framework, several problems are studied in different settings. Chapter 2 studies the classical joint pricing and inventory control problem with backlogged demand, and proposes a nonparametric data-driven algorithm that learns about the demand on the fly while making pricing and ordering decisions. The performance of the algorithm is measured by regret, which is the average profit loss compared with that of the clairvoyant optimal policy. It is proved that the regret vanishes at the fastest possible rate as the planning horizon increases. Chapter 3 studies the classical joint pricing and inventory control problem with lost-sales and censored demand. Major challenges in this study include the following: First, due to demand censoring, the firm cannot observe either the realized demand or realized profit in case of a stockout, therefore only biased data is accessible; second, the data-driven objective function is always multimodal, which is hard to solve and establish convergence for. Chapter 3 presents a data-driven algorithm that actively explores in the inventory space to collect more demand data, and designs a sparse discretization scheme to jointly learn and optimize the multimodal data-driven objective. The algorithm is shown to be very computationally efficient. Chapter 4 considers a constraint that only allows the firm to change prices no more than a certain number of times, and explores the impact of number of price changes on the quality of demand learning. In the data-driven algorithm, we extend the traditional maximum likelihood estimation method to work with censored demand data, and prove that the algorithm converges at the best possible rate for any data-driven algorithms.PhDIndustrial and Operations EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/120721/1/boxchen_1.pd

The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area: new survey evidence

This study investigates the pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area on the basis of surveys conducted by nine Eurosystem national central banks, covering more than 11,000 firms. The results, robust across countries, show that firms operate in monopolistically competitive markets, where prices are mostly set following markup rules and where price discrimination is common. Around one-third of firms follow mainly time-dependent pricing rules while twothirds allow for elements of state-dependence. The majority of firms take into account past and expected economic developments in their pricing decisions. Price stickiness is mainly driven by customer relationships – explicit and implicit contracts – and coordination failure. Firms adjust prices asymmetrically in response to shocks: while cost shocks have a greater impact when prices have to be raised than when they have to be reduced, reductions in demand are more likely to induce a price change than increases in demand. JEL Classification: E30, D40Inflation persistence, nominal rigidity, price setting, real rigidity, survey data

Sometimes, Money Does Grow On Trees: Data-Driven Demand Response with DR-Advisor

Real-time electricity pricing and demand response has become a clean, reliable and cost-effective way of mitigating peak demand on the electricity grid. We consider the problem of end-user demand response (DR) for large commercial buildings which involves predicting the demand response baseline, evaluating fixed DR strategies and synthesizing DR control actions for load curtailment in return for a financial reward. Using historical data from the building, we build a family of regression trees and learn data-driven models for predicting the power consumption of the building in real-time. We present a method called DR-Advisor called DR-Advisor, which acts as a recommender system for the building\u27s facilities manager and provides suitable control actions to meet the desired load curtailment while maintaining operations and maximizing the economic reward. We evaluate the performance of DR-Advisor for demand response using data from a real office building and a virtual test-bed

The rise of the sharing economy: estimating the impact of Airbnb on the hotel industry

Peer-to-peer markets, collectively known as the sharing economy, have emerged as alternative suppliers of goods and services traditionally provided by long-established industries. We explore the economic impact of the sharing economy on incumbent firms by studying the case of Airbnb, a prominent platform for short-term accommodations. We analyze Airbnb's entry into the state of Texas, and quantify its impact on the Texas hotel industry over the subsequent decade. We estimate that in Austin, where Airbnb supply is highest, the causal impact on hotel revenue is in the 8-10% range; moreover, the impact is non-uniform, with lower-priced hotels and those hotels not catering to business travelers being the most affected. The impact manifests itself primarily through less aggressive hotel room pricing, an impact that benefits all consumers, not just participants in the sharing economy. The price response is especially pronounced during periods of peak demand, such as SXSW, and is due to a differentiating feature of peer-to-peer platforms -- enabling instantaneous supply to scale to meet demand.Accepted manuscrip