Prediction of skiing time by structured regression algorithm

In this paper, the application of Gaussian conditional random fields (GCRF) in the case of prediction skiing time between ski gates in ski center Kopaonik, is presented. Gaussian conditional random fields is well-known structured regression method that exploits advantages of unstructured predictors and combines them with the information concerning correlation between outputs. Four different unstructured predictors were used: ridge regression, LASSO regression, Random forest regression and support vector machine regression. Even thought, only 18 features are used for prediction of skiing time, GCRF achieved better results, concerning R2 and mean absolute error, compared to unstructured predictors

A Method for Developing Qualitative Security Risk Assessment Algorithms

We present a method for developing qualitative security risk assessment algorithms where the input captures the dynamic state of the target of analysis. This facilitates continuous monitoring. The intended users of the method are security and risk practitioners interested in developing assessment algorithms for their own or their client’s organization. Managers and decision makers will typically be end users of the assessments provided by the algorithms. To promote stakeholder involvement, the method is designed to ensure that the algorithm and the underlying risk model are simple to understand. We have employed the method to create assessment algorithms for 10 common cyber attacks, and use one of these to demonstrate the approach.acceptedVersio

Proceedings of Mathsport international 2017 conference

Proceedings of MathSport International 2017 Conference, held in the Botanical Garden of the University of Padua, June 26-28, 2017. MathSport International organizes biennial conferences dedicated to all topics where mathematics and sport meet. Topics include: performance measures, optimization of sports performance, statistics and probability models, mathematical and physical models in sports, competitive strategies, statistics and probability match outcome models, optimal tournament design and scheduling, decision support systems, analysis of rules and adjudication, econometrics in sport, analysis of sporting technologies, financial valuation in sport, e-sports (gaming), betting and sports

Risk-Based Decision Support Model for Offshore Installations

Background: During major maintenance projects on offshore installations, flotels are often used to accommodate the personnel. A gangway connects the flotel to the installation. If the offshore conditions are unfavorable, the responsible operatives need to decide whether to lift (disconnect) the gangway from the installation. If this is not done, there is a risk that an uncontrolled autolift (disconnection) occurs, causing harm to personnel and equipment. Objectives: We present a decision support model, developed using the DEXi tool for multi-criteria decision making, which produces advice on whether to disconnect/connect the gangway from/to the installation. Moreover, we report on our development method and experiences from the process, including the efforts invested. An evaluation of the resulting model is also offered, primarily based on feedback from a small group of offshore operatives and domain experts representing the end user target group. Methods/Approach: The decision support model was developed systematically in four steps: establish context, develop the model, tune the model, and collect feedback on the model. Results: The results indicate that the decision support model provides advice that corresponds with expert expectations, captures all aspects that are important for the assessment, is comprehensible to domain experts, and that the expected benefit justifies the effort for developing the model. Conclusions: We find the results promising, and believe that the approach can be fruitful in a wider range of risk-based decision support scenarios. Moreover, this paper can help other decision support developers decide whether a similar approach can suit them

Place, recreation and local development

Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Monitoring and Management of Visitors in Recreational and Protected Areas (MMV9), Bordeaux, FRA, 29-/08/2018 - 31/08/2018It is our pleasure to welcome you to the 9th international Conference on Monitoring and Management of Visitors in Recreational and Protected Areas (MMV9) with a program including keynote speeches, organized and poster sessions, a half-day field trip, social events and post conference trips. This is the first time that France has hosted an MMV Conference. Our country is ranked as the world's top tourist destination, thanks largely to its culture, art, and gastronomy, as well as popular cities such as Paris and Bordeaux. On the other hand, France's potential as a destination for outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism is not hugely publicized, despite its many unique features in this respect: varied climate and natural assets (shoreline, mountains, lakes, and forests), large expanses of countryside, and a network of protected natural areas, to name but a few. France's protected areas are often free to access for the general public. However, in contrast with other countries, nature conservation in specific areas is much less widespread. Where it does take place, it is often centered on territories that are perceived to be "attractive", and where many conflicting activities are practiced. This may be one of the reasons why contractual tools and regional park systems are quite popular in France. The MMV Conference offers an excellent opportunity to discuss the situation in France in greater depth. The theme proposed for the conference was "recreation, place and local development". This reflects our assumption that recreational areas are not just physical assets designed to receive visitors for the purpose of leisure - which in itself would already be something of great importance - but that they reflect deeper social phenomena, as demonstrated through the range of organized sessions dedicated to discussing questions such as environmental education and economic development, but also emerging themes such as social integration, community resilience, environmental justice, and health. The traditional topics covered by MMV Conference reflect an evolving society: with innovations in monitoring techniques (both on people and nature), focus on new populations (Y generation, ethnic minority) and a larger concern for individual engagement and participative management. The 9th Edition of MMV is co-hosted by Irstea and BSA. This would not have been possible without significant contributions from a large number of additional partners and sponsors as well as our national scientific and organizing committee. We would like to take this opportunity to thank everyone for their help. After two years of planning, we are proud to announce that we have more than 160 presentations from 30 countries, meaning that the conference will host over 200 participants from across the globe. We are honored that the International Steering Committee has given us the opportunity to be part of this great MMV community, which organized its first meeting in 2002. We hope you will enjoy the conference as much as we enjoyed organizing it. If you can't be with us in person, we hope that you will enjoy reading our publications