A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models

Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants

Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation. One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent outputs for the di erent techniques

Neuro-fuzzy resource forecast in site suitability assessment for wind and solar energy: a mini review

Abstract:Site suitability problems in renewable energy studies have taken a new turn since the advent of geographical information system (GIS). GIS has been used for site suitability analysis for renewable energy due to its prowess in processing and analyzing attributes with geospatial components. Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) tools are further used for criteria ranking in the order of influence on the study. Upon location of most appropriate sites, the need for intelligent resource forecast to aid in strategic and operational planning becomes necessary if viability of the investment will be enhanced and resource variability will be better understood. One of such intelligent models is the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and its variants. This study presents a mini-review of GIS-based MCDM facility location problems in wind and solar resource site suitability analysis and resource forecast using ANFIS-based models. We further present a framework for the integration of the two concepts in wind and solar energy studies. Various MCDM techniques for decision making with their strengths and weaknesses were presented. Country specific studies which apply GIS-based method in site suitability were presented with criteria considered. Similarly, country-specific studies in ANFIS-based resource forecasts for wind and solar energy were also presented. From our findings, there has been no technically valid range of values for spatial criteria and the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) has been commonly used for criteria ranking leaving other techniques less explored. Also, hybrid ANFIS models are more effective compared to standalone ANFIS models in resource forecast, and ANFIS optimized with population-based models has been mostly used. Finally, we present a roadmap for integrating GIS-MCDM site suitability studies with ANFIS-based modeling for improved strategic and operational planning

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

Modeling of electricity demand forecast for power system

© 2019, Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature. The emerging complex circumstances caused by economy, technology, and government policy and the requirement of low-carbon development of power grid lead to many challenges in the power system coordination and operation. However, the real-time scheduling of electricity generation needs accurate modeling of electricity demand forecasting for a range of lead times. In order to better capture the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics and the seasonal cycles of future electricity demand data, a new concept of the integrated model is developed and successfully applied to research the forecast of electricity demand in this paper. The proposed model combines adaptive Fourier decomposition method, a new signal preprocessing technology, for extracting useful element from the original electricity demand series through filtering the noise factors. Considering the seasonal term existing in the decomposed series, it should be eliminated through the seasonal adjustment method, in which the seasonal indexes are calculated and should multiply the forecasts back to restore the final forecast. Besides, a newly proposed moth-flame optimization algorithm is used to ensure the suitable parameters of the least square support vector machine which can generate the forecasts. Finally, the case studies of Australia demonstrated the efficacy and feasibility of the proposed integrated model. Simultaneously, it can provide a better concept of modeling for electricity demand prediction over different forecasting horizons