Data mining approach to predicting the performance of first year student in a university using the admission requirements

The academic performance of a student in a university is determined by a number of factors, both academic and non-academic. Student that previously excelled at the secondary school level may lose focus due to peer pressure and social lifestyle while those who previously struggled due to family distractions may be able to focus away from home, and as a result excel at the university. University admission in Nigeria is typically based on cognitive entry characteristics of a student which is mostly academic, and may not necessarily translate to excellence once in the university. In this study, the relationship between the cognitive admission entry requirements and the academic performance of students in their first year, using their CGPA and class of degree was examined using six data mining algorithms in KNIME and Orange platforms. Maximum accuracies of 50.23% and 51.9% respectively were observed, and the results were verified using regression models, with R2 values of 0.207 and 0.232 recorded which indicate that students’ performance in their first year is not fully explained by cognitive entry requirements

Predicting the academic success of architecture students by pre-enrolment requirement: using machine-learning techniques

In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of applicants seeking admission into architecture programmes. As expected, prior academic performance (also referred to as pre-enrolment requirement) is a major factor considered during the process of selecting applicants. In the present study, machine learning models were used to predict academic success of architecture students based on information provided in prior academic performance. Two modeling techniques, namely K-nearest neighbour (k-NN) and linear discriminant analysis were applied in the study. It was found that K-nearest neighbour (k-NN) outperforms the linear discriminant analysis model in terms of accuracy. In addition, grades obtained in mathematics (at ordinary level examinations) had a significant impact on the academic success of undergraduate architecture students. This paper makes a modest contribution to the ongoing discussion on the relationship between prior academic performance and academic success of undergraduate students by evaluating this proposition. One of the issues that emerges from these findings is that prior academic performance can be used as a predictor of academic success in undergraduate architecture programmes. Overall, the developed k-NN model can serve as a valuable tool during the process of selecting new intakes into undergraduate architecture programmes in Nigeria

The efficacy of using data mining techniques in predicting academic performance of architecture students.

In recent years, there has been a tremendous increase in the number of applicants seeking placement in the undergraduate architecture programme. It is important to identify new intakes who possess the capability to succeed during the selection phase of admission at universities. Admission variable (i.e. prior academic achievement) is one of the most important criteria considered during selection process. The present study investigates the efficacy of using data mining techniques to predict academic performance of architecture student based on information contained in prior academic achievement. The input variables, i.e. prior academic achievement, were extracted from students' academic records. Logistic regression and support vector machine (SVM) are the data mining techniques adopted in this study. The collected data was divided into two parts. The first part was used for training the model, while the other part was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the developed models. The results revealed that SVM model outperformed the logistic regression model in terms of accuracy. Taken together, it is evident that prior academic achievement are good predictors of academic performance of architecture students. Although the factors affecting academic performance of students are numerous, the present study focuses on the effect of prior academic achievement on academic performance of architecture students. The developed SVM model can be used a decision-making tool for selecting new intakes into the architecture program at Nigerian universities

Predictive Modelling of Student Academic Performance – the Case of Higher Education in Middle East

One of the main issues in higher education is student retention. Predicting students' performance is an important task for higher education institutions in reducing students' dropout rate and increasing students' success. Educational Data mining is an emerging field that focuses on dealing with data related to educational settings. It includes reading the data, extracting the information and acquiring hidden knowledge. This research used data from one of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) universities, as a case study of Higher Education in the Middle East. The concerned University has an enrolment of about 20,000 students of many different nationalities. The primary goal of this research is to investigate the ability of building predictive models to predict students' academic performance and identify the main factors that influence their performance and grade point average. The development of a generalized model (a model that could be applied on any institution that adopt the same grading system either on the Foundation level (that use binary response variable (Pass/ Fail) or count response variable which is the Grade Average Point for students enrol in the undergraduate academic programs) to identify students in jeopardy of dismissal will help to reduce the dropout rate by early identification of needed academic advising, and ultimately improve students' success. This research showed that data science algorithms could play a significant role in predicting students' Grade Point Average by adopting different regression algorithms. Different algorithms were carried out to investigate the ability of building predictive models to predict students' Grade Point Average after either 2, 4 or 6 terms. These methods are Linear/ Logistic Regression, Regression Trees and Random Forest. These predictive models are used to predict specific students' Grade Point Average based on other values in the dataset. In this type of model, explicit instruction is given about what the model needs to learn. An optimization function (the model) is formed to find the target output based on specific input values. This research opens the door for future comprehensive studies that apply a data science approach to higher-education systems and identifying the main factors that influence student performance

A Comparison of Classification Models in Predicting Graduate Admission Decision

While the decision process of graduate admissions remains elusive, specific criteria are decidedly significant in determining admission outcome. Prospective students applying to graduate programs experience a real predicament of selecting the right schools to invest limited resources for the application. This paper presents comparisons of various machine learning classification models, including Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Multilayer Perceptron and Decisions Tree models, in predicting the admission outcome of candidates with a set of known parameters using a dataset of 400 applicant records. By comparing the performance metrics of these methods, the study finds Naïve Bayes to be the most accurate model for this type of dataset. Predictive models such as the ones discussed in this paper can be a valuable tool for prospective students in shortlisting universities in their application process. The study also proposes a framework that incorporates machine learning-based classification into the admissions decision process. Implementing such methods may help support graduate admissions committees in streamlining large pools of applications or observing and understanding trends in their past admission decisions

Development of a system architecture for the prediction of student success using machine learning techniques

“ The goals of higher education have evolved through time based on the impact that technology development and industry have on productivity. Nowadays, jobs demand increased technical skills, and the supply of prepared personnel to assume those jobs is insufficient. The system of higher education needs to evaluate their practices to realize the potential of cultivating an educated and technically skilled workforce. Currently, completion rates at universities are too low to accomplish the aim of closing the workforce gap. Recent reports indicate that 40 percent of freshman at four-year public colleges will not graduate, and rates of completion are even lower for community colleges. Some efforts have been made to adjust admission requirements and develop systems of support for different segments of students; however, completion rates are still considered low. Therefore, new strategies need to consider student success as part of the institutional culture based on the information technology support. Also, it is key that the models that evaluate student success can be scalable to other higher education institutions. In recent years machine learning techniques have proven to be effective for such purpose. Then, the primary objective of this research is to develop an integrated system that allows for the application of machine learning for student success prediction. The proposed system was evaluated to determine the accuracy of student success predictions using several machine learning techniques such as decision trees, neural networks, support vector machines, and random forest. The research outcomes offer an important understanding about how to develop a more efficient and responsive system to support students to complete their educational goals”--Abstract, page iv

Unfolding the drivers for academic success: The case of ISCTE-IUL

Predicting the success of academic students is a major topic in the higher education research community. This study presents a data mining approach to predict academic success in a Portuguese University called ISCTE-IUL, unveiling the features that better explain failures. A dataset of 10 curricular years for bachelor’s degrees has been analysed. Features’ selection resulted in a characterising set of 68 features, encompassing socio-demographic, social origin, previous education, special statutes and educational path information. Understanding features’ collection timings, distinct predicting was conducted. Based on entrance date, end of the first and the second curricular semesters, three distinct data models were proposed and tested. An additional model was designed for outlier degrees (i.e., a 4-year Bachelor). Six algorithms were tested for modelling. A support vector machines (SVM) model achieved the best overall performance and was selected to conduct a data-based sensitivity analysis. Relevance and impact review allowed extracting meaningful knowledge. This approach unfolded that previous evaluation performance, study gaps and age-related features play a major role in explaining failures at entrance stage. For subsequent stages, current evaluation performance features unveil their predicting power. Also, it should be noted that most of the features’ groups are represented on each model’s most relevant features, revealing that academic success is a combination of a wide range of distinct factors. These and many other findings, such as, age-related features increasing impact at the end first curricular semester, set a baseline for success improvement recommendations, and for easier data mining adoption by Higher Education institutions. Suggested guidelines include to provide study support groups to risk profiles and to create monitoring frameworks. From a practical standpoint, a data-driven decision-making framework based on these models can be used to promote academic success.O sucesso académico é um dos tópicos mais explorados nos estudos sobre o ensino superior. Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem de data mining para a previsão do sucesso académico no ISCTE-IUL. Numa abordagem focada no insucesso, são estudados os fatores que explicam estes casos. Neste estudo foram utilizados dados de licenciatura de 10 anos curriculares. Foram analisadas 68 características sociodemográficas, origem social, percurso escolar anterior (ensino secundário), estatutos especiais e percurso académico. Foram adotados diferentes vetores de análise para o primeiro ano curricular (entrada e final dos primeiro e segundo semestres curriculares), dando origem a 3 modelos distintos. Um modelo suplementar foi projetado para cursos especiais. Entre os seis algoritmos de modelação testados, SVM obteve a melhor performance, sendo utilizado para a análise de sensibilidade. O processo de extração de conhecimento indicou que fatores como desempenho anterior, interrupções do percurso educacional e idade, demonstram grande impacto no (in)sucesso num estágio inicial. Nos estágios seguintes, fatores de performance atuais revelam um grande poder de previsão do (in)sucesso. A maior parte dos grupos de características faz-se representar, nas características mais relevantes de cada modelo. Estes e outros resultados, como o aumento do impacto dos fatores relacionadas com a idade no final do segundo semestre curricular, suportam a criação de recomendações institucionais. Por exemplo, criar grupos de apoio ao estudo para perfis de risco e criar ferramentas de monitorização são algumas das diretrizes sugeridas. Em suma, é possível criar uma ferramenta de apoio à decisão, baseada nos modelos apresentados, podendo ser utilizada pelo ISCTE-IUL para promover o sucesso académico

A data-driven approach to predict first-year students’ academic success in higher education institutions

This study presents a data mining approach to predict academic success of the first-year students. A dataset of 10 academic years for first-year bachelor’s degrees from a Portuguese Higher Institution (N = 9652) has been analysed. Features’ selection resulted in a characterising set of 68 features, encompassing socio-demographic, social origin, previous education, special statutes and educational path dimensions. We proposed and tested three distinct course stage data models based on entrance date, end of the first and second curricular semesters. A support vector machines (SVM) model achieved the best overall performance and was selected to conduct a data-based sensitivity analysis. The previous evaluation performance, study gaps and age-related features play a major role in explaining failures at entrance stage. For subsequent stages, current evaluation performance features unveil their predictive power. Suggested guidelines include to provide study support groups to risk profiles and to create monitoring frameworks. From a practical standpoint, a data-driven decision-making framework based on these models can be used to promote academic success.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio

Research Phases of University Data Mining Project Development

Educational Data Mining becomes one of the challenging new research fields where data mining methods and tools could help universities in taking timely and data analysis based management decisions, thus contributing to gaining competitive advantages in their successful policy introduction. This paper presents the research activities performed for the implementation of a data mining project initiated in one of the most prestigious Bulgarian universities. The project main goal is to reveal the high potential of data mining applications for university management, referring to the optimal usage of data mining methods and techniques to deeply analyze the collected historical data. That will lead to better understanding the student behavior and building well structured educational process that meets the university policy and supports the management decision making process