Data Mining in Electronic Commerce

Modern business is rushing toward e-commerce. If the transition is done properly, it enables better management, new services, lower transaction costs and better customer relations. Success depends on skilled information technologists, among whom are statisticians. This paper focuses on some of the contributions that statisticians are making to help change the business world, especially through the development and application of data mining methods. This is a very large area, and the topics we cover are chosen to avoid overlap with other papers in this special issue, as well as to respect the limitations of our expertise. Inevitably, electronic commerce has raised and is raising fresh research problems in a very wide range of statistical areas, and we try to emphasize those challenges.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000204 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Data driven wireless network design : a multi-level modeling approach

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Bid Optimization by Multivariable Control in Display Advertising

Real-Time Bidding (RTB) is an important paradigm in display advertising, where advertisers utilize extended information and algorithms served by Demand Side Platforms (DSPs) to improve advertising performance. A common problem for DSPs is to help advertisers gain as much value as possible with budget constraints. However, advertisers would routinely add certain key performance indicator (KPI) constraints that the advertising campaign must meet due to practical reasons. In this paper, we study the common case where advertisers aim to maximize the quantity of conversions, and set cost-per-click (CPC) as a KPI constraint. We convert such a problem into a linear programming problem and leverage the primal-dual method to derive the optimal bidding strategy. To address the applicability issue, we propose a feedback control-based solution and devise the multivariable control system. The empirical study based on real-word data from Taobao.com verifies the effectiveness and superiority of our approach compared with the state of the art in the industry practices

From Social Data Mining to Forecasting Socio-Economic Crisis

Socio-economic data mining has a great potential in terms of gaining a better understanding of problems that our economy and society are facing, such as financial instability, shortages of resources, or conflicts. Without large-scale data mining, progress in these areas seems hard or impossible. Therefore, a suitable, distributed data mining infrastructure and research centers should be built in Europe. It also appears appropriate to build a network of Crisis Observatories. They can be imagined as laboratories devoted to the gathering and processing of enormous volumes of data on both natural systems such as the Earth and its ecosystem, as well as on human techno-socio-economic systems, so as to gain early warnings of impending events. Reality mining provides the chance to adapt more quickly and more accurately to changing situations. Further opportunities arise by individually customized services, which however should be provided in a privacy-respecting way. This requires the development of novel ICT (such as a self- organizing Web), but most likely new legal regulations and suitable institutions as well. As long as such regulations are lacking on a world-wide scale, it is in the public interest that scientists explore what can be done with the huge data available. Big data do have the potential to change or even threaten democratic societies. The same applies to sudden and large-scale failures of ICT systems. Therefore, dealing with data must be done with a large degree of responsibility and care. Self-interests of individuals, companies or institutions have limits, where the public interest is affected, and public interest is not a sufficient justification to violate human rights of individuals. Privacy is a high good, as confidentiality is, and damaging it would have serious side effects for society.Comment: 65 pages, 1 figure, Visioneer White Paper, see http://www.visioneer.ethz.c

A Decision Technology System To Advance the Diagnosis and Treatment of Breast Cancer

Geographical variations in cancer rates have been observed for decades. Described spatial patterns and trends have provided clues for generating hypotheses about the etiology of cancer. For breast cancer, investigators have demonstrated that some variation can be explained by differences in the population distribution of known breast cancer risk factors such as menstrual and reproductive variables (Laden, Spiegelman, and Neas, 1997; Robbins, Bescianini, and Kelsey, 1997; Sturgeon, Schairer, and Gail, 1995). However, regional patterns also may reflect the effects of Workshop on Hormones, Hormone Metabolism, Environment, and Breast Cancer (1995): (a) environmental hazards (such as air and water pollution), (b) demographics and the lifestyle of a mobile population, (c) subgroup susceptibility, (d) changes and advances in medical practice and healthcare management, and (e) other factors. To accurately measure breast cancer risk in individuals and population groups, it is necessary to singly and jointly assess the association between such risk and the hypothesized factors. Various statistical models will be needed to determine the potential relationships between breast cancer development and estimated exposures to environmental contamination. To apply the models, data must be assembled from a variety of sources, converted into the statistical models’ parameters, and delivered effectively to researchers and policy makers. A Web-enabled decision technology system can be developed to provide the needed functionality. This chapter will present a conceptual architecture for such a decision technology system. First, there will be a brief overview of a typical geographical analysis. Next, the chapter will present the conceptual Web-based decision technology system and illustrate how the system can assist users in diagnosing and treating breast cancer. The chapter will conclude with an examination of the potential benefits from system use and the implications for breast cancer research and practice