A Proof-of-Concept of Integrating Machine Learning, Remote Sensing, and Survey Data in Evaluations: The Measurement of Disaster Resilience in the Philippines

Disaster resilience is a topic of increasing importance for policy makers in the context of climate change. However, measuring disaster resilience remains a challenge as it requires information on both the physical environment and socio-economic dimensions. In this study we developed and tested a method to use remote sensing (RS) data to construct proxy indicators of socio-economic change. We employed machine-learning algorithms to generate land-cover and land-use classifications from very high-resolution satellite imagery to appraise disaster damage and recovery processes in the Philippines following the devastation of typhoon Haiyan in November 2013. We constructed RS-based proxy indicators for N=20 barangays (villages) in the region surrounding Tacloban City in the central east of the Philippines. We then combined the RS-based proxy indicators with detailed socio-economic information collected during a rigorous-impact evaluation by DEval in 2016. Results from a statistical analysis demonstrated that fastest post-disaster recovery occurred in urban barangays that received sufficient government support (subsidies), and which had no prior disaster experience. In general, socio-demographic factors had stronger effects on the early recovery phase (0-2 years) compared to the late recovery phase (2-3 years). German development support was related to recovery performance only to some extent. Rather than providing an in-depth statistical analysis, this study is intended as a proof-of-concept. We have been able to demonstrate that high-resolution RS data and machine-learning techniques can be used within a mixed-methods design as an effective tool to evaluate disaster impacts and recovery processes. While RS data have distinct limitations (e.g., cost, labour intensity), they offer unique opportunities to objectively measure physical, and by extension socio-economic, changes over large areas and long time-scales.Zunehmende Wetterextreme und Naturkatastrophen sind Folgen des Klimawandels. Aufgrund dieser steigenden Risiken rückt die Resilienz der Bevölkerung im Katastrophenfall als zentrales Thema in den Vordergrund und hat zunehmende Bedeutung für politische Entscheidungstragende. Dennoch bleibt die Messung des mehrdimensionalen Konzepts der Katastrophenresilienz eine Herausforderung, da sie Informationen sowohl über die physische Umgebung als auch sozioökonomische Faktoren erfordert. In dieser Studie wird eine Methode entwickelt, um aus Fernerkundungsdaten (RS-Daten) Indikatoren zu entwickeln, die Aspekte des sozioökonomischen Wandels approximieren und somit messbar machen (Proxy-Indikatoren). Zu diesem Zweck wurden Algorithmen des maschinellen Lernens eingesetzt. Mit Hilfe dieser Algorithmen wurden aus hochauflösenden Satellitenbildern Klassifizierungen für Landstruktur und Landnutzung konstruiert, um Katastrophenschäden und iederaufbauprozesse auf den Philippinen nach der Zerstörung durch den Taifun Haiyan im November 2013 zu messen. Aus den RS-Daten wurden die Indikatoren für N=20 Barangays (Dörfer) in der Region um die Stadt Tacloban im zentralen Osten der Philippinen berechnet. Diese auf RS-Daten basierenden Indikatoren wurden mit detaillierten sozioökonomischen Informationen kombiniert, die für eine DEval-Evaluierung im Jahr 2016 erhoben wurden. Die Ergebnisse der statistischen Analyse zeigen, dass der schnellste Wiederaufbau nach der Katastrophe in städtischen Barangays zu beobachten war, die ausreichend staatliche Unterstützung (Subventionen) erhielten und über keine Katastrophenerfahrung verfügten. Im Vergleich hatten soziodemografische Faktoren allgemein stärkere Auswirkungen auf die frühe (0-2 Jahre) als auf die spätere (2-3 Jahre) Wiederaufbauphase. Es konnte nur ein bedingter Bezug zwischen der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit und den Wiederaufbauerfolgen festgestellt werden. Diese Studie versteht sich als Nachweis der Machbarkeit, weniger als detaillierte statistische Analyse. Sie belegt, dass hochauflösende RS-Daten und Techniken des maschinellen Lernens innerhalb eines integrierten Methodendesigns als effektives Werkzeug zur Bewertung von Katastrophenauswirkungen und Wiederherstellungsprozessen eingesetzt werden können. Trotz spezifischer Einschränkungen (hohe Kosten, Arbeitsintensität etc.) bieten RS-Daten einzigartige Möglichkeiten sowohl Umweltbedingungen als auch sozioökonomische Veränderungen über große Gebiete und lange Zeiträume hinweg objektiv messen zu können

Damage pattern mining in hurricane image databases

We present a damage pattern mining framework for hurricane data on residential houses using aerial photographs with 1:3000 based scale. The vertical photographs are normally collected for an overview of a disaster area or for more detailed assessment. Damage on roof.. especially for shingles torn off, is expected to be discovered in a more efficient and automatic way instead of going through the high-resolution aerial photograph for numerous details. The discovered damage patterns can then be used for hurricane damage assessment and impacts on different geographical areas. Our methodology is: (1) applying a novel and effective segmentation method on each residential house on the aerial photograph of one community, (2) using the segmentation results to obtain a set of indexing parameters for each house representing the damage level of roof cladding as well as the patterns of damage, (3) using these parameters to select several templates representing the damage patterns so that users can issue query-by-example (QBE) queries. The proposed segmentation method is an unsupervised simultaneous partition and class parameter estimation algorithm that considers the problem of segmentation as a joint estimation of the partition and class parameter variables. By utilizing this segmentation method; the indexing parameters can be obtained automatically. The QBE capability can assist in finding similar damage patterns on the roof of the residential houses in different locations in the image databases. Experiments based on the aerial photographs of Hurricane Andrew in 1992 are conducted and analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed Hurricane damage pattern mining framework

Damage Pattern Mining in Hurricane Image Databases ∗

Abstract – We present a damage pattern mining framework for hurricane data on residential houses using aerial photographs with 1:3000 based scale. The vertical photographs are normally collected for an overview of a disaster area or for more detailed assessment. Damage on roof, especially for shingles torn off, is expected to be discovered in a more efficient and automatic way instead of going through the high-resolution aerial photograph for numerous details. The discovered damage patterns can then be used for hurricane damage assessment and impacts on different geographical areas. Our methodology is: (1) applying a novel and effective segmentation method on each residential house on the aerial photograph of one community, (2) using the segmentation results to obtain a set of indexing parameters for each house representing the damage level of roof cladding as well as the patterns of damage, (3) using these parameters to select several templates representing the damage patterns so that users can issue queryby-example (QBE) queries. The proposed segmentation method is an unsupervised simultaneous partition and class parameter estimation algorithm that considers the problem of segmentation as a joint estimation of the partition and class parameter variables. By utilizing this segmentation method, the indexing parameters can be obtained automatically. The QBE capability can assist in finding similar damage patterns on the roof of the residential houses in different locations in the image databases. Experiments based on the aerial photographs of Hurricane Andrew in 1992 are conducted and analyzed to show the effectiveness of the proposed Hurricane damage pattern mining framework