QALYs, Person Trade-Offs, and the Pareto Principle.

A considerable literature seems to argue the use of person trade-offs to estimate the quality-adjustment factor in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALY) models. A similar practise is followed by the WHO to estimate the disability weights used in calculation of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) for assessment of region- and disease-specific burden of disease. In this note we show that QALY (and DALY) models based on person trade-off scores generally violate the Pareto principle.person trade-off; QALY; DALY; Pareto principle; social welfare

The Masterwork of the Cheese Orpheus

500 word story commissioned by Jeremy Akerman and Eileen Daly for their 'Flash500' online project of 32 artists' stories

We’re So Bored With London, Wayne Daly in conversation with Russell Bestley, Parts 1 & 2

Interview discussion with Wayne Daly on the subject of UK punk singles

The Relationship Between Beam Power and Radio Power for Classical Double Radio Sources

Beam power is a fundamental parameter that describes, in part, the state of a supermassive black hole system. Determining the beam powers of powerful classical double radio sources requires substantial observing time, so it would be useful to determine the relationship between beam power and radio power so that radio power could be used as a proxy for beam power. A sample of 31 powerful classical double radio sources with previously determined beam and radio powers are studied; the sources have redshifts between about 0.056 and 1.8. It is found that the relationship between beam power, Lj, and radio power, P, is well described by Log(Lj) = 0.84 Log(P) + 2.15, where both L_j and P are in units of 10^(44) erg/s. This indicates that beam power is converted to radio power with an efficiency of about 0.7%. The ratio of beam power to radio power is studied as a function of redshift; there is no significant evidence for redshift evolution of this ratio over the redshift range studied. The relationship is consistent with empirical results obtained by Cavagnolo et al. (2010) for radio sources in gas rich environments, which are primarily FRI sources, and with the theoretical predictions of Willott et al. (1999).Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in MNRA

Cost-effectiveness of voluntary HIV-1 counseling and testing in reducing sexual transmission of HIV-1 in Kenya and Tanzania.

Background Access to HIV-1 voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) is severely limited in less-developed countries. We undertook a multisite trial of HIV-1 VCT to assess its impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness in less-developed country settings.\ud Methods\ud The cost-effectiveness of HIV-1 VCT was estimated for a hypothetical cohort of 10 000 people seeking VCT in urban east Africa. Outcomes were modelled based on results from a randomised controlled trial of HIV-1 VCT in Tanzania and Kenya. Our main outcome measures included programme cost, number of HIV-1 infections averted, cost per HIV-1 infection averted, and cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) saved. We also modelled the impact of targeting VCT by HIV-1 prevalence of the client population, and the proportion of clients who receive VCT as a couple compared with as individuals. Sensitivity analysis was done on all model parameters.\ud Findings\ud HIV-1 VCT was estimated to avert 1104 HIV-1 infections in Kenya and 895 in Tanzania during the subsequent year. The cost per HIV-1 infection averted was US$249 and$346, respectively, and the cost per DALY saved was $12·77 and$17·78. The intervention was most cost-effective for HIV-1-infected people and those who received VCT as a couple. The cost-effectiveness of VCT was robust, with a range for the average cost per DALY saved of $5·16-27·36 in Kenya, and$6·58-45·03 in Tanzania. Analysis of targeting showed that increasing the proportion of couples to 70% reduces the cost per DALY saved to $10·71 in Kenya and$13·39 in Tanzania, and that targeting a population with HIV-1 prevalence of 45% decreased the cost per DALY saved to $8·36 in Kenya and$11·74 in Tanzania.\ud Interpretation\ud HIV-1 VCT is highly cost-effective in urban east African settings, but slightly less so than interventions such as improvement of sexually transmitted disease services and universal provision of nevirapine to pregnant women in high-prevalence settings. With the targeting of VCT to populations with high HIV-1 prevalence and couples the cost-effectiveness of VCT is improved significantly

Incorporating scale dependence in disease burden estimates:the case of human African trypanosomiasis in Uganda

The WHO has established the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) as a metric for measuring the burden of human disease and injury globally. However, most DALY estimates have been calculated as national totals. We mapped spatial variation in the burden of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) in Uganda for the years 2000-2009. This represents the first geographically delimited estimation of HAT disease burden at the sub-country scale.Disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) totals for HAT were estimated based on modelled age and mortality distributions, mapped using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software, and summarised by parish and district. While the national total burden of HAT is low relative to other conditions, high-impact districts in Uganda had DALY rates comparable to the national burden rates for major infectious diseases. The calculated average national DALY rate for 2000-2009 was 486.3 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, whereas three districts afflicted by rhodesiense HAT in southeastern Uganda had burden rates above 5000 DALYs/100 000 persons/year, comparable to national GBD 2004 average burden rates for malaria and HIV/AIDS.These results provide updated and improved estimates of HAT burden across Uganda, taking into account sensitivity to under-reporting. Our results highlight the critical importance of spatial scale in disease burden analyses. National aggregations of disease burden have resulted in an implied bias against highly focal diseases for which geographically targeted interventions may be feasible and cost-effective. This has significant implications for the use of DALY estimates to prioritize disease interventions and inform cost-benefit analyses

Species Profiles: Life Histories and Environmental Requirements of Coastal Fishes and Invertebrates (Mid-Atlantic): Bay anchovy

The bay anchovy occurs along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts, from Cape Cod, Massachusetts, to Yucatan, Mexico (Hildebrand 1963), except for the Florida Keys where it is apparently absent (Daly 1970). (PDF contains 22 pages

Enumeration of nilpotent loops up to isotopy

We modify tools introduced by Daniel Daly and Petr Vojtechovsky in order to count, for any odd prime q, the number of nilpotent loops of order 2q up to isotopy, instead of isomorphy.Comment: 20 pages; important typos corrected (section 6

There's no contest: Human sex differences are sexually selected

The official published version can be accessed from the link below - Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2009An evolutionary psychological perspective drawing on sexual selection theory can better explain sex differences in aggression and violence than can social constructionist theories. Moreover, there is accumulating evidence that, in accordance with predictions derived from sexual selection theory, men modulate their willingness to engage in risky and violent confrontations in response to cues to fitness variance and future prospects