Choice f micro-mobility: Case studies of ta public bicycle sharing system in New Zealand

This study considers how to improve understanding of sustainable urban transport planning from the perspective of the Central Business District (CBD) redevelopment process for two cities, Hamilton and Christchurch in New Zealand (NZ). The most proportion of ‘Public Bicycle Share Schemes’ operate in densely populated cities as these are characterized by limited modal accessibility but high population density in the urban CBD. This situation is similar to NZ’s two medium-sized cities, in each of which the city’s population density is constantly increasing in the past years. In this study, Multinomial and Mixed Logistic regression models were used to determine the model specification, and subsequently, to test the mode choice cross-elasticities for promoting greater use of the bicycle sharing system in conjunction with public transport service. The data were gathered using stated preference surveys from 486 New Zealanders, and the modeling results indicate that the potential improvement in a modal shift towards micro-mobility, which can be enhanced by applying different policy options

National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project

National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project

CALIBRATING THE INTERCITY HIGH SPEED RAIL (HSR) CHOICE MODEL FOR THE RICHMOND-WASHINGTON, D.C. CORRIDOR

This study aims to quantitatively investigate how the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) influences traveler’s choice behavior. The study focuses on recalibrating the Florida-based HSR choice model to fit the intercity travel northward from Richmond, Virginia to Washington, D.C. The model takes a nested logit formulation and includes a binary marginal choice submodel to project travel behavior between aggregate ground and individual air transportation modes, and a trinomial conditional mode choice model to examine the travel behavior patterns within three ground transportation submodes: auto, bus, and rail. The data collected is based upon the base year 2008 market conditions, and the recalibrated model is used to forecast the year 2014 HSR levels of service. Empirical results show that reduced travel cost and other impedance factors stand to increase utility for HSR, even though the auto will continue to be the dominant travel mode.high speed rail, nested logit model, mode choice, Richmond, Washington D.C.

Bounds on willingness-to-pay in a pure-characteristics model of the demand for automobile variants

I estimate a pure-characteristics discrete choice model of the demand for automobile engine and body style variants, using market-level data. Revealed preference bounds and imposed bounds on the willingness to pay for characteristics as a percentage of product price are sufficient to identify nonparametric taste distributions. Substitution patterns as determined by closest substitutes appear very realistic. The model can be estimated on a single cross-section of data.

Modelling passenger demand for parkway rail stations

Interest in Parkway stations emerged in the 1980s. These act as convenient out-of-town stations for inter-urban rail journeys. There were 13 so-called Parkway stations in Great Britain in 1999 and two have subsequently been opened. This paper reports the development and application of a new Parkway forecasting model which was conducted for the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC), undertaken as part of an extensive update to the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook, which recommends demand forecasting frameworks and associated parameters that are widely used in the railway industry in Great Britain. The objective was to develop a model that had more desirable properties and was more straightforward to apply than the previously recommended procedure. The focus is entirely upon inter-urban journeys of over 80 km.The model forecasts the demand for Parkway stations based solely on rail ticket sales data and its properties are illustrated with two case study applications. The nature of Parkway stations forces consideration of competition, and it is demonstrated that the inclusion of a station choice component leads to a somewhat improved explanatory power and a more plausible generalised cost elasticity.In addition to the methodological developments, the model has provided generally reasonable elasticities and forecasts and shown that Parkway users have different preferences to rail travellers in general. In a test based around a newly opened Parkway station, its forecasts are more accurate than the procedure it replaces

Travel mode substitution in Sao Paulo : estimates and implications for air pollution control

How would travel demand in Sao Paulo respond to demand management instruments? Could higher gasoline prices or lower metro fares (or changes in travel time) help reduce congestion or pollution? The authors use cross-sectional variation from an urban travel survey to study the substitutability in demand between travel modes. The method assumes that the set of trips is given (that is, origin-destination pairs do not change). Choice of mode was found to be quite insensitive to changes; all elasticities were lower than 0.5 in absolute value, and most were close to zero. While the sensitivity of mode choice to relative travel times (that is, speeds) was somewhat greater than that to costs, the general finding is that mode choice is quite inflexible. So, subsidies to less polluting (less congesting) travel modes would not help much in attracting travelers from more polluting (more congesting) modes. (The same holds for subsidized means of making them run faster.) But there are important limitations in the scope of the study. First, the study does not discuss optimal pricing. It merely examines the likely sign and magnitude of the links between pollution and policy parameters such as prices and travel speeds. Second, aggregate demand by mode could also depend on the city's shape and its travel intensity (the number, direction, and length of trips). For example, if a"city"stretches along a constructed metro line, the study would not capture such a phenomenon, since sensitive trip generation is excluded. These issues are not examined in the study.Roads&Highways,Consumption,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Roads&Highways,Economic Theory&Research,Urban Transport,Environmental Economics&Policies,Transport and Environment

National and international freight transport models: overview and ideas for further development

This paper contains a review of the literature on freight transport models, focussing on the types of models that have been developed since the nineties for forecasting, policy simulation and project evaluation at the national and international level. Models for production, attraction, distribution, modal split and assignment are discussed in the paper. Furthermore, the paper also includes a number of ideas for future development, especially for the regional and urban components within national freight transport models