Risk Reduction and Deterrence: Two Sides of the Same Coin?

The article record as published may be found at https://www.hsaj.org/articles/16993Government documents and academic articles focus on risk reduction and deterrence, sometimes simultaneously. With limited resources, how should CIKR stakeholders invest?Sponsored the U. S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Preparedness Directorate, FEMA, CHDS is part of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

Critical networked infrastructure protection from adversaries

We use the adversarial risk analysis (ARA) framework to deal with the protection of a critical networked infrastructure from the attacks of intelligent adversaries. We deploy an ARA model for each relevant element (node, link, hotspot in link) in the network, using a Sequential Defend¿Attack¿Defend template as a reference. Such ARA models are related by resource constraints and result aggregation over various sites, for both the Defender and the Attacker. As a case study, we consider the protection of a section of the Spanish railway network from a potential terrorist attack.This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Innovation program MTM-2014-56949-C3-1-R, the ESF-COST Action IS1304 on Expert Judgement and the AXA-ICMAT Chair on Adversarial Risk Analysis. It also received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement no. 285223. Discussions with referees are gratefully acknowledged.Peer Reviewe