Impact of network assortativity on epidemic and vaccination behaviour

The resurgence of measles is largely attributed to the decline in vaccine adoption and the increase in mobility. Although the vaccine for measles is readily available and highly successful, its current adoption is not adequate to prevent epidemics. Vaccine adoption is directly affected by individual vaccination decisions, and has a complex interplay with the spatial spread of disease shaped by an underlying mobility (travelling) network. In this paper, we model the travelling connectivity as a scale-free network, and investigate dependencies between the network's assortativity and the resultant epidemic and vaccination dynamics. In doing so we extend an SIR-network model with game-theoretic components, capturing the imitation dynamics under a voluntary vaccination scheme. Our results show a correlation between the epidemic dynamics and the network's assortativity, highlighting that networks with high assortativity tend to suppress epidemics under certain conditions. In highly assortative networks, the suppression is sustained producing an early convergence to equilibrium. In highly disassortative networks, however, the suppression effect diminishes over time due to scattering of non-vaccinating nodes, and frequent switching between the predominantly vaccinating and non-vaccinating phases of the dynamics.Comment: 17 pages, 13 figure

Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia

There is a continuing debate on relative benefits of various mitigation and suppression strategies aimed to control the spread of COVID-19. Here we report the results of agent-based modelling using a fine-grained computational simulation of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in Australia. This model is calibrated to match key characteristics of COVID-19 transmission. An important calibration outcome is the age-dependent fraction of symptomatic cases, with this fraction for children found to be one-fifth of such fraction for adults. We apply the model to compare several intervention strategies, including restrictions on international air travel, case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing with varying levels of compliance, and school closures. School closures are not found to bring decisive benefits, unless coupled with high level of social distancing compliance. We report several trade-offs, and an important transition across the levels of social distancing compliance, in the range between 70% and 80% levels, with compliance at the 90% level found to control the disease within 13--14 weeks, when coupled with effective case isolation and international travel restrictions.Comment: 45 pages, 19 figure

How will mass-vaccination change COVID-19 lockdown requirements in Australia?

To prevent future outbreaks of COVID-19, Australia is pursuing a mass-vaccination approach in which a targeted group of the population comprising healthcare workers, aged-care residents and other individuals at increased risk of exposure will receive a highly effective priority vaccine. The rest of the population will instead have access to a less effective vaccine. We apply a large-scale agent-based model of COVID-19 in Australia to investigate the possible implications of this hybrid approach to mass-vaccination. The model is calibrated to recent epidemiological and demographic data available in Australia, and accounts for several components of vaccine efficacy. Within a feasible range of vaccine efficacy values, our model supports the assertion that complete herd immunity due to vaccination is not likely in the Australian context. For realistic scenarios in which herd immunity is not achieved, we simulate the effects of mass-vaccination on epidemic growth rate, and investigate the requirements of lockdown measures applied to curb subsequent outbreaks. In our simulations, Australia's vaccination strategy can feasibly reduce required lockdown intensity and initial epidemic growth rate by 43\% and 52\%, respectively. The severity of epidemics, as measured by the peak number of daily new cases, decreases by up to two orders of magnitude under plausible mass-vaccination and lockdown strategies. The study presents a strong argument for a large-scale vaccination campaign, which would significantly reduce the intensity of non-pharmaceutical interventions in Australia and curb future outbreaks

Creating a surrogate commuter network from Australian Bureau of Statistics census data

Between the 2011 and 2016 national censuses, the Australian Bureau of Statistics changed its anonymity policy compliance system for the distribution of census data. The new method has resulted in dramatic inconsistencies when comparing low-resolution data to aggregated high-resolution data. Hence, aggregated totals do not match true totals, and the mismatch gets worse as the data resolution gets finer. Here, we address several aspects of this inconsistency with respect to the 2016 usual-residence to place-of-work travel data. We introduce a re-sampling system that rectifies many of the artifacts introduced by the new ABS protocol, ensuring a higher level of consistency across partition sizes. We offer a surrogate high-resolution 2016 commuter dataset that reduces the difference between the aggregated and true commuter totals from ~34% to only ~7%, which is on the order of the discrepancy across partition resolutions in data from earlier years