Cooperative coevolution of Elman recurrent neural networks for chaotic time series prediction

Cooperative coevolution decomposes a problem into subcomponents and employs evolutionary algorithms for solving them. Cooperative coevolution has been effective for evolving neural networks. Different problem decomposition methods in cooperative coevolution determine how a neural network is decomposed and encoded which affects its performance. A good problem decomposition method should provide enough diversity and also group interacting variables which are the synapses in the neural network. Neural networks have shown promising results in chaotic time series prediction. This work employs two problem decomposition methods for training Elman recurrent neural networks on chaotic time series problems. The Mackey-Glass, Lorenz and Sunspot time series are used to demonstrate the performance of the cooperative neuro-evolutionary methods. The results show improvement in performance in terms of accuracy when compared to some of the methods from literature

Modeling The Intensity Function Of Point Process Via Recurrent Neural Networks

Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time interval. One expressive mathematical tool for modeling event is point process. The intensity functions of many point processes involve two components: the background and the effect by the history. Due to its inherent spontaneousness, the background can be treated as a time series while the other need to handle the history events. In this paper, we model the background by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with its units aligned with time series indexes while the history effect is modeled by another RNN whose units are aligned with asynchronous events to capture the long-range dynamics. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end. Our approach takes an RNN perspective to point process, and models its background and history effect. For utility, our method allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity which is often a pre-defined parametric form in point processes. Meanwhile end-to-end training opens the venue for reusing existing rich techniques in deep network for point process modeling. We apply our model to the predictive maintenance problem using a log dataset by more than 1000 ATMs from a global bank headquartered in North America.Comment: Accepted at Thirty-First AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI17

Utilization Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) And Machine Learning (ML) in the Field of Energy Research

Many governments have committed to becoming carbon neutral by 2050. The main argument is that renewable resources are more eco-friendly than fossil fuels. However, the unpredictable nature of solar and wind power results in either excess or lack of energy generation. This article will evaluate the current machine-learning-based solutions for forecasting renewable energy demand and capacity. Many researchers have used machine learning (ML) to anticipate the amount of generated wind or solar energy. SVM, RNN, NN, and ELM are the most utilized algorithms. Prediction accuracy is improved through optimization (metaheuristics and evolution). These methods can forecast renewable energy for periods ranging from seconds to months. This article compares several ML methodologies and metaheuristic strategies and reviews the current state of research. The hybrid MLS outperforms the standalone optimizers. A more extensive data set for ANN, the introduction of NWP, and a shorter prediction timeframe are suggested as alternatives to Bayesian and random grid tuning. Further research on probabilistic predictions and mathematical relationships between inputs and outputs is needed to close the research gap

Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network Models for Forecasting and Quantifying Uncertainty in Spatial-Temporal Data

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep learning models have become more common, RNNs have been used to forecast increasingly complicated systems. Dynamical spatio-temporal processes represent a class of complex systems that can potentially benefit from these types of models. Although the RNN literature is expansive and highly developed, uncertainty quantification is often ignored. Even when considered, the uncertainty is generally quantified without the use of a rigorous framework, such as a fully Bayesian setting. Here we attempt to quantify uncertainty in a more formal framework while maintaining the forecast accuracy that makes these models appealing, by presenting a Bayesian RNN model for nonlinear spatio-temporal forecasting. Additionally, we make simple modifications to the basic RNN to help accommodate the unique nature of nonlinear spatio-temporal data. The proposed model is applied to a Lorenz simulation and two real-world nonlinear spatio-temporal forecasting applications