817 research outputs found
Use of a controlled experiment and computational models to measure the impact of sequential peer exposures on decision making
It is widely believed that one's peers influence product adoption behaviors.
This relationship has been linked to the number of signals a decision-maker
receives in a social network. But it is unclear if these same principles hold
when the pattern by which it receives these signals vary and when peer
influence is directed towards choices which are not optimal. To investigate
that, we manipulate social signal exposure in an online controlled experiment
using a game with human participants. Each participant in the game makes a
decision among choices with differing utilities. We observe the following: (1)
even in the presence of monetary risks and previously acquired knowledge of the
choices, decision-makers tend to deviate from the obvious optimal decision when
their peers make similar decision which we call the influence decision, (2)
when the quantity of social signals vary over time, the forwarding probability
of the influence decision and therefore being responsive to social influence
does not necessarily correlate proportionally to the absolute quantity of
signals. To better understand how these rules of peer influence could be used
in modeling applications of real world diffusion and in networked environments,
we use our behavioral findings to simulate spreading dynamics in real world
case studies. We specifically try to see how cumulative influence plays out in
the presence of user uncertainty and measure its outcome on rumor diffusion,
which we model as an example of sub-optimal choice diffusion. Together, our
simulation results indicate that sequential peer effects from the influence
decision overcomes individual uncertainty to guide faster rumor diffusion over
time. However, when the rate of diffusion is slow in the beginning, user
uncertainty can have a substantial role compared to peer influence in deciding
the adoption trajectory of a piece of questionable information
Analysis of complex contagions in random multiplex networks
We study the diffusion of influence in random multiplex networks where links
can be of different types, and for a given content (e.g., rumor, product,
political view), each link type is associated with a content dependent
parameter in that measures the relative bias type- links
have in spreading this content. In this setting, we propose a linear threshold
model of contagion where nodes switch state if their "perceived" proportion of
active neighbors exceeds a threshold \tau. Namely, a node connected to
active neighbors and inactive neighbors via type- links will turn
active if exceeds its threshold \tau. Under this
model, we obtain the condition, probability and expected size of global
spreading events. Our results extend the existing work on complex contagions in
several directions by i) providing solutions for coupled random networks whose
vertices are neither identical nor disjoint, (ii) highlighting the effect of
content on the dynamics of complex contagions, and (iii) showing that
content-dependent propagation over a multiplex network leads to a subtle
relation between the giant vulnerable component of the graph and the global
cascade condition that is not seen in the existing models in the literature.Comment: Revised 06/08/12. 11 Pages, 3 figure
A Kernel of Truth: Determining Rumor Veracity on Twitter by Diffusion Pattern Alone
Recent work in the domain of misinformation detection has leveraged rich
signals in the text and user identities associated with content on social
media. But text can be strategically manipulated and accounts reopened under
different aliases, suggesting that these approaches are inherently brittle. In
this work, we investigate an alternative modality that is naturally robust: the
pattern in which information propagates. Can the veracity of an unverified
rumor spreading online be discerned solely on the basis of its pattern of
diffusion through the social network?
Using graph kernels to extract complex topological information from Twitter
cascade structures, we train accurate predictive models that are blind to
language, user identities, and time, demonstrating for the first time that such
"sanitized" diffusion patterns are highly informative of veracity. Our results
indicate that, with proper aggregation, the collective sharing pattern of the
crowd may reveal powerful signals of rumor truth or falsehood, even in the
early stages of propagation.Comment: Published at The Web Conference (WWW) 202
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