Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes and human parturition (birth).Comment: Latex document of 22 pages including 6 ps figures, in press in PNA

The extension and exploitation of the inventory and order based production control system archetype from 1982 to 2015

In 1994, through classic control theory, John, Naim and Towill developed the ‘Automatic Pipeline, Inventory and Order-based Production Control System’ (APIOBPCS) which extended the original IOBPCS archetype developed by Towill in 1982 ─ well-recognised as a base framework for a production planning and control system. Due to the prevalence of the two original models in the last three decades in the academic and industrial communities, this paper aims to systematically review how the IOBPCS archetypes have been adopted, exploited and adapted to study the dynamics of individual production planning and control systems and whole supply chains. Using various databases such as Scopus, Web of Science, Google Scholar (111 papers), we found that the IOBPCS archetypes have been studied regarding the a) modification of four inherent policies related to forecasting, inventory, lead-time and pipeline to create a ‘family’ of models, b) adoption of the IOBPCS ‘family’ to reduce supply chain dynamics, and in particular bullwhip, c) extension of the IOBPCS family to represent different supply chain scenarios such as order-book based production control and closed-loop processes. Simulation is the most popular method adopted by researchers and the number of works based on discrete time based methods is greater than those utilising continuous time approaches. Most studies are conceptual with limited practical applications described. Future research needs to focus on cost, flexibility and sustainability in the context of supply chain dynamics and, although there are a few existing studies, more analytical approaches are required to gain robust insights into the influence of nonlinear elements on supply chain behaviour. Also, empirical exploitation of the existing models is recommended

Actualización de semaforización en Santa Marta Magdalena

En el presente informe estará desarrollado bajo la modalidad de auxiliar de investigación el cual consta del proyecto de investigación. ACTIALIZACION DE LOS SISTEMAS DE SEMAFORIZACION DE LA CIUDAD DE SANTA MARTA EMPLEANDO NUEVAS TECNOLOGIAS. llevado a cabo por el semillero de investigación de la universidad cooperativa de Colombia seccional Santa Marta, donde presentaremos los análisis y estudios necesarios para cumplir con el objetivo general que se ha planteado dentro de este, el cual consta de la caracterización de sistemas tecnológicos implementados en redes de semaforización en países seleccionados a nivel mundial. Con fin de estudiar y analizar cada una de las opciones escogidas y poder implementarlas en la actualización de las redes de semaforización de la ciudad de Santa Marta en pro a mejorar la fluidez y garantizar una seguridad optima en el tráfico principalmente enhoras picos. Este proyecto está compuesto por la introducción donde se establecerá la importancia de este tipo de investigaciones y los beneficios que han tenido en forma general. Tendremos un planteamiento del problema donde se identifica el problema y se delimita el espacio geográfico, así como su espacio temporal a través de la investigación del problema para una posterior formulación de este. Lo que nos lleva a plantar un objetivo general descrito anteriormente y unos objetivos específicos que nos brindan la posibilidad de llegar a una solución óptima. Dentro del informe se establecerá los métodos de investigación utilizados, marco conceptual, métodos de análisis de literatura. Registro de dichos análisis, análisis de resultados, conclusiones.This report will be developed under the modality of research assistant which consists of the research project. UPDATE OF THE SEMPHORIZATION SYSTEMS OF THE CITY OF SANTA MARTA USING NEW TECHNOLOGIES. carried out by the research seedbed of the Santa Marta sectional cooperative university of Colombia, where we will present the analyzes and studies necessary to fulfill the general objective that has been proposed within this, which consists of the characterization of technological systems implemented in traffic light networks in selected countries worldwide. In order to study and analyze each of the chosen options and to be able to implement them in updating the traffic light networks of the city of Santa Marta in order to improve fluidity and guarantee optimal traffic safety, mainly during peak hours. This project consists of the introduction where the importance of this type of research and the benefits they have had in general will be established. We will have an approach to the problem where the problem is identified and the geographical space is delimited, as well as its temporal space through the investigation of the problem for a later formulation of it. Which leads us to plant a general objective described above and specificobjectives that give us the possibility of reaching an optimal solution. The report will establish the research methods used, the conceptual framework, and the literature analysis methods. Record of said analyzes, analysis of results, conclusions.Resumen. -- Abstract. -- Introduccion. -- Planteamiento del problema. -- Formulación del problema. -- Objetivos. -- Objetivo general. -- Objetivos específicos. -- Justificación. -- Marco conceptual. -- De-limitación de la investigación. -- Linea de investigación. -- Delimitaciòn espacial. -- Delimitaciòn temporal. -- Metodología. -- Tipo de investigación. -- Diseño de la investigación. -- Técnica para la recolección de información. -- Análisis de literatura. -- Resultados. -- Conclusiones. -- Recomendaciones. -- Bibliográfica. -

A Comprehensive Survey on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm and Its Applications

Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is a heuristic global optimization method, proposed originally by Kennedy and Eberhart in 1995. It is now one of the most commonly used optimization techniques. This survey presented a comprehensive investigation of PSO. On one hand, we provided advances with PSO, including its modifications (including quantum-behaved PSO, bare-bones PSO, chaotic PSO, and fuzzy PSO), population topology (as fully connected, von Neumann, ring, star, random, etc.), hybridization (with genetic algorithm, simulated annealing, Tabu search, artificial immune system, ant colony algorithm, artificial bee colony, differential evolution, harmonic search, and biogeography-based optimization), extensions (to multiobjective, constrained, discrete, and binary optimization), theoretical analysis (parameter selection and tuning, and convergence analysis), and parallel implementation (in multicore, multiprocessor, GPU, and cloud computing forms). On the other hand, we offered a survey on applications of PSO to the following eight fields: electrical and electronic engineering, automation control systems, communication theory, operations research, mechanical engineering, fuel and energy, medicine, chemistry, and biology. It is hoped that this survey would be beneficial for the researchers studying PSO algorithms

Emerging opportunities and challenges for the future of reservoir computing

Reservoir computing originates in the early 2000s, the core idea being to utilize dynamical systems as reservoirs (nonlinear generalizations of standard bases) to adaptively learn spatiotemporal features and hidden patterns in complex time series. Shown to have the potential of achieving higher-precision prediction in chaotic systems, those pioneering works led to a great amount of interest and follow-ups in the community of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems. To unlock the full capabilities of reservoir computing towards a fast, lightweight, and significantly more interpretable learning framework for temporal dynamical systems, substantially more research is needed. This Perspective intends to elucidate the parallel progress of mathematical theory, algorithm design and experimental realizations of reservoir computing, and identify emerging opportunities as well as existing challenges for large-scale industrial adoption of reservoir computing, together with a few ideas and viewpoints on how some of those challenges might be resolved with joint efforts by academic and industrial researchers across multiple disciplines

Emerging opportunities and challenges for the future of reservoir computing

Reservoir computing originates in the early 2000s, the core idea being to utilize dynamical systems as reservoirs (nonlinear generalizations of standard bases) to adaptively learn spatiotemporal features and hidden patterns in complex time series. Shown to have the potential of achieving higher-precision prediction in chaotic systems, those pioneering works led to a great amount of interest and follow-ups in the community of nonlinear dynamics and complex systems. To unlock the full capabilities of reservoir computing towards a fast, lightweight, and significantly more interpretable learning framework for temporal dynamical systems, substantially more research is needed. This Perspective intends to elucidate the parallel progress of mathematical theory, algorithm design and experimental realizations of reservoir computing, and identify emerging opportunities as well as existing challenges for large-scale industrial adoption of reservoir computing, together with a few ideas and viewpoints on how some of those challenges might be resolved with joint efforts by academic and industrial researchers across multiple disciplines