Sensitive Dependence on Parameters of Continuous-time Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

We would like to thank the partial support of this work by the Brazilian agencies FAPESP (processes: 2011/19296-1 and 2013/26598-0, CNPq and CAPES. MSB acknowledges EPSRC Ref. EP/I032606/1.Peer reviewedPostprin

A posteriori error analysis and adaptive non-intrusive numerical schemes for systems of random conservation laws

In this article we consider one-dimensional random systems of hyperbolic conservation laws. We first establish existence and uniqueness of random entropy admissible solutions for initial value problems of conservation laws which involve random initial data and random flux functions. Based on these results we present an a posteriori error analysis for a numerical approximation of the random entropy admissible solution. For the stochastic discretization, we consider a non-intrusive approach, the Stochastic Collocation method. The spatio-temporal discretization relies on the Runge--Kutta Discontinuous Galerkin method. We derive the a posteriori estimator using continuous reconstructions of the discrete solution. Combined with the relative entropy stability framework this yields computable error bounds for the entire space-stochastic discretization error. The estimator admits a splitting into a stochastic and a deterministic (space-time) part, allowing for a novel residual-based space-stochastic adaptive mesh refinement algorithm. We conclude with various numerical examples investigating the scaling properties of the residuals and illustrating the efficiency of the proposed adaptive algorithm

Stochastic Nonlinear Model Predictive Control with Efficient Sample Approximation of Chance Constraints

This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost function in terms of expected values and higher moments of the states, and chance constraints that ensure probabilistic constraint satisfaction. The generalized polynomial chaos framework is used to propagate the time-invariant stochastic uncertainties through the nonlinear system dynamics, and to efficiently sample from the probability densities of the states to approximate the satisfaction probability of the chance constraints. To increase computational efficiency by avoiding excessive sampling, a statistical analysis is proposed to systematically determine a-priori the least conservative constraint tightening required at a given sample size to guarantee a desired feasibility probability of the sample-approximated chance constraint optimization problem. In addition, a method is presented for sample-based approximation of the analytic gradients of the chance constraints, which increases the optimization efficiency significantly. The proposed stochastic nonlinear model predictive control approach is applicable to a broad class of nonlinear systems with the sufficient condition that each term is analytic with respect to the states, and separable with respect to the inputs, states and parameters. The closed-loop performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using the Williams-Otto reactor with seven states, and ten uncertain parameters and initial conditions. The results demonstrate the efficiency of the approach for real-time stochastic model predictive control and its capability to systematically account for probabilistic uncertainties in contrast to a nonlinear model predictive control approaches.Comment: Submitted to Journal of Process Contro

Indifference Pricing and Hedging in a Multiple-Priors Model with Trading Constraints

This paper considers utility indifference valuation of derivatives under model uncertainty and trading constraints, where the utility is formulated as an additive stochastic differential utility of both intertemporal consumption and terminal wealth, and the uncertain prospects are ranked according to a multiple-priors model of Chen and Epstein (2002). The price is determined by two optimal stochastic control problems (mixed with optimal stopping time in the case of American option) of forward-backward stochastic differential equations. By means of backward stochastic differential equation and partial differential equation methods, we show that both bid and ask prices are closely related to the Black-Scholes risk-neutral price with modified dividend rates. The two prices will actually coincide with each other if there is no trading constraint or the model uncertainty disappears. Finally, two applications to European option and American option are discussed.Comment: 28 pages in Science China Mathematics, 201