Enhanced news sentiment analysis using deep learning methods

We explore the predictive power of historical news sentiments based on financial market performance to forecast financial news sentiments. We define news sentiments based on stock price returns averaged over one minute right after a news article has been released. If the stock price exhibits positive (negative) return, we classify the news article released just prior to the observed stock return as positive (negative). We use Wikipedia and Gigaword five corpus articles from 2014 and we apply the global vectors for word representation method to this corpus to create word vectors to use as inputs into the deep learning TensorFlow network. We analyze high-frequency (intraday) Thompson Reuters News Archive as well as the high-frequency price tick history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA 30) Index individual stocks for the period between 1/1/2003 and 12/30/2013. We apply a combination of deep learning methodologies of recurrent neural network with long short-term memory units to train the Thompson Reuters News Archive Data from 2003 to 2012, and we test the forecasting power of our method on 2013 News Archive data. We find that the forecasting accuracy of our methodology improves when we switch from random selection of positive and negative news to selecting the news with highest positive scores as positive news and news with highest negative scores as negative news to create our training data set.Published versio

Complex networks analysis in socioeconomic models

This chapter aims at reviewing complex networks models and methods that were either developed for or applied to socioeconomic issues, and pertinent to the theme of New Economic Geography. After an introduction to the foundations of the field of complex networks, the present summary adds insights on the statistical mechanical approach, and on the most relevant computational aspects for the treatment of these systems. As the most frequently used model for interacting agent-based systems, a brief description of the statistical mechanics of the classical Ising model on regular lattices, together with recent extensions of the same model on small-world Watts-Strogatz and scale-free Albert-Barabasi complex networks is included. Other sections of the chapter are devoted to applications of complex networks to economics, finance, spreading of innovations, and regional trade and developments. The chapter also reviews results involving applications of complex networks to other relevant socioeconomic issues, including results for opinion and citation networks. Finally, some avenues for future research are introduced before summarizing the main conclusions of the chapter.Comment: 39 pages, 185 references, (not final version of) a chapter prepared for Complexity and Geographical Economics - Topics and Tools, P. Commendatore, S.S. Kayam and I. Kubin Eds. (Springer, to be published

Recommendation domains for pond aquaculture

This publication introduces the methods and results of a research project that has developed a set of decision-support tools to identify places and sets of conditions for which a particular target aquaculture technology is considered feasible and therefore good to promote. The tools also identify the nature of constraints to aquaculture development and thereby shed light on appropriate interventions to realize the potential of the target areas. The project results will be useful for policy planners and decision makers in national, regional and local governments and development funding agencies, aquaculture extension workers in regional and local governments, and researchers in aquaculture systems and rural livelihoods. (Document contains 40 pages

Quality assurance of rectal cancer diagnosis and treatment - phase 3 : statistical methods to benchmark centres on a set of quality indicators

In 2004, the Belgian Section for Colorectal Surgery, a section of the Royal Belgian Society for Surgery, decided to start PROCARE (PROject on CAncer of the REctum), a multidisciplinary, profession-driven and decentralized project with as main objectives the reduction of diagnostic and therapeutic variability and improvement of outcome in patients with rectal cancer. All medical specialties involved in the care of rectal cancer established a multidisciplinary steering group in 2005. They agreed to approach the stated goal by means of treatment standardization through guidelines, implementation of these guidelines and quality assurance through registration and feedback. In 2007, the PROCARE guidelines were updated (Procare Phase I, KCE report 69). In 2008, a set of 40 process and outcome quality of care indicators (QCI) was developed and organized into 8 domains of care: general, diagnosis/staging, neoadjuvant treatment, surgery, adjuvant treatment, palliative treatment, follow-up and histopathologic examination. These QCIs were tested on the prospective PROCARE database and on an administrative (claims) database (Procare Phase II, KCE report 81). Afterwards, 4 QCIs were added by the PROCARE group. Centres have been receiving feedback from the PROCARE registry on these QCIs with a description of the distribution of the unadjusted centre-averaged observed measures and the centre’s position therein. To optimize this feedback, centres should ideally be informed of their risk-adjusted outcomes and be given some benchmarks. The PROCARE Phase III study is devoted to developing a methodology to achieve this feedback

Modeling hierarchical relationships in epidemiological studies: a Bayesian networks approach

Hierarchical relationships between risk factors are seldom taken into account in epidemiological studies though some authors stressed the importance of doing so, and proposed a conceptual framework in which each level of the hierarchy is modeled separately. The objective of this paper was to implement a simple version of their framework, and to propose an alternative procedure based on a Bayesian Network (BN). These approaches were illustrated in modeling the risk of diarrhea infection for 2740 children aged 0 to 59 months in Cameroon. The authors implemented a (naïve) logistic regression, a step-level logistic regression and also a BN. While the first approach is inadequate, the two others approaches both account for the hierarchical structure but to different estimates and interpretations. BN implementation showed that a child in a family in the poorest group has respectively 89%, 40% and 18% probabilities of having poor sanitation, being malnourished and having diarrhea. An advantage of the latter approach is that it enables one to determine the probability that a risk factor (and/or the outcome) is in a given state, given the states of the others. Although the BN considered here is very simple, the method can deal with more complicated models.Bayesian networks; hierarchical model; diarrhea infection; disease determinants; logistic regression

Urban quality of life in Istanbul: Priorities and segmentation

The purpose of this paper is to model the desires, expectations and priorities of the inhabitants of Istanbul, a city with a population of about 15 milion, from a multidimensional perspective. In this way, effective allocation of the city's resources can be achieved to improve the quality of life for such a large number of people, which is the primary concern of the local authorities as well as the urban planners. A survey is conducted in Istanbul so that the priorities of the inhabitants are revealed and the city where they would like to live is portrayed. The data obtained are used as input for hierarchical conjoint analysis, a decompositional multivariate data analysis technique frequently used in marketing. The survey is primarily based on the evaluation os hypothetical , orthogonally-designed city profiles for four different constructs and a bridging construcy on a 0-10 rating scale. The relative importance of the constructs and thier attributes are estimated at both the individual and the aggregate level. A segmentation is made on the demographic and social characteristics of the respondents to reflect different classes. The research is an interdisciplinary group work acting as a bridge between urban planning and multiattribute decision mak?ing, thus judgments of experts from different disciplines are used in every stage of the study.

Recommendation domains for pond aquaculture

This publication introduces the methods and results of a research project that has developed a set of decision-support tools to identify places and sets of conditions for which a particular target aquaculture technology is considered feasible and therefore good to promote. The tools also identify the nature of constraints to aquaculture development and thereby shed light on appropriate interventions to realize the potential of the target areas. The project results will be useful for policy planners and decision makers in national, regional and local governments and development funding agencies, aquaculture extension workers in regional and local governments, and researchers in aquaculture systems and rural livelihoods.Pond culture, Freshwater aquaculture, GIS

Beyond subjective and objective in statistics

We argue that the words "objectivity" and "subjectivity" in statistics discourse are used in a mostly unhelpful way, and we propose to replace each of them with broader collections of attributes, with objectivity replaced by transparency, consensus, impartiality, and correspondence to observable reality, and subjectivity replaced by awareness of multiple perspectives and context dependence. The advantage of these reformulations is that the replacement terms do not oppose each other. Instead of debating over whether a given statistical method is subjective or objective (or normatively debating the relative merits of subjectivity and objectivity in statistical practice), we can recognize desirable attributes such as transparency and acknowledgment of multiple perspectives as complementary goals. We demonstrate the implications of our proposal with recent applied examples from pharmacology, election polling, and socioeconomic stratification.Comment: 35 page