Self-Attentive hawkes process

Capturing the occurrence dynamics is crucial to predicting which type of events will happen next and when. A common method to do this is through Hawkes processes. To enhance their capacity, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been incorporated due to RNNs successes in processing sequential data such as languages. Recent evidence suggests that self-Attention is more competent than RNNs in dealing with languages. However, we are unaware of the effectiveness of self-Attention in the context of Hawkes processes. This study aims to fill the gap by designing a self-Attentive Hawkes process (SAHP). SAHP employs self-Attention to summarise the influence of history events and compute the probability of the next event. One deficit of the conventional selfattention, when applied to event sequences, is that its positional encoding only considers the order of a sequence ignoring the time intervals between events. To overcome this deficit, we modify its encoding by translating time intervals into phase shifts of sinusoidal functions. Experiments on goodness-of-fit and prediction tasks show the improved capability of SAHP. Furthermore, SAHP is more interpretable than RNN-based counterparts because the learnt attention weights reveal contributions of one event type to the happening of another type. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that studies the effectiveness of self-Attention in Hawkes processes

Scalable Bayesian inference for self-excitatory stochastic processes applied to big American gunfire data

The Hawkes process and its extensions effectively model self-excitatory phenomena including earthquakes, viral pandemics, financial transactions, neural spike trains and the spread of memes through social networks. The usefulness of these stochastic process models within a host of economic sectors and scientific disciplines is undercut by the processes' computational burden: complexity of likelihood evaluations grows quadratically in the number of observations for both the temporal and spatiotemporal Hawkes processes. We show that, with care, one may parallelize these calculations using both central and graphics processing unit implementations to achieve over 100-fold speedups over single-core processing. Using a simple adaptive Metropolis-Hastings scheme, we apply our high-performance computing framework to a Bayesian analysis of big gunshot data generated in Washington D.C. between the years of 2006 and 2019, thereby extending a past analysis of the same data from under 10,000 to over 85,000 observations. To encourage wide-spread use, we provide hpHawkes, an open-source R package, and discuss high-level implementation and program design for leveraging aspects of computational hardware that become necessary in a big data setting.Comment: Submitted to Statistics and Computin

Spatio-Temporal Wildfire Prediction using Multi-Modal Data

Due to severe societal and environmental impacts, wildfire prediction using multi-modal sensing data has become a highly sought-after data-analytical tool by various stakeholders (such as state governments and power utility companies) to achieve a more informed understanding of wildfire activities and plan preventive measures. A desirable algorithm should precisely predict fire risk and magnitude for a location in real time. In this paper, we develop a flexible spatio-temporal wildfire prediction framework using multi-modal time series data. We first predict the wildfire risk (the chance of a wildfire event) in real-time, considering the historical events using discrete mutually exciting point process models. Then we further develop a wildfire magnitude prediction set method based on the flexible distribution-free time-series conformal prediction (CP) approach. Theoretically, we prove a risk model parameter recovery guarantee, as well as coverage and set size guarantees for the CP sets. Through extensive real-data experiments with wildfire data in California, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods, as well as their flexibility and scalability in large regions