2,269 research outputs found
Bivariate modelling of precipitation and temperature using a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model
Aiming to generate realistic synthetic times series of the bivariate process
of daily mean temperature and precipitations, we introduce a non-homogeneous
hidden Markov model. The non-homogeneity lies in periodic transition
probabilities between the hidden states, and time-dependent emission
distributions. This enables the model to account for the non-stationary
behaviour of weather variables. By carefully choosing the emission
distributions, it is also possible to model the dependance structure between
the two variables. The model is applied to several weather stations in Europe
with various climates, and we show that it is able to simulate realistic
bivariate time series
Identifiability and consistent estimation of nonparametric translation hidden Markov models with general state space
This paper considers hidden Markov models where the observations are given as
the sum of a latent state which lies in a general state space and some
independent noise with unknown distribution. It is shown that these fully
nonparametric translation models are identifiable with respect to both the
distribution of the latent variables and the distribution of the noise, under
mostly a light tail assumption on the latent variables. Two nonparametric
estimation methods are proposed and we prove that the corresponding estimators
are consistent for the weak convergence topology. These results are illustrated
with numerical experiments
Switching Regression Models and Causal Inference in the Presence of Discrete Latent Variables
Given a response and a vector of predictors,
we investigate the problem of inferring direct causes of among the vector
. Models for that use all of its causal covariates as predictors enjoy
the property of being invariant across different environments or interventional
settings. Given data from such environments, this property has been exploited
for causal discovery. Here, we extend this inference principle to situations in
which some (discrete-valued) direct causes of are unobserved. Such cases
naturally give rise to switching regression models. We provide sufficient
conditions for the existence, consistency and asymptotic normality of the MLE
in linear switching regression models with Gaussian noise, and construct a test
for the equality of such models. These results allow us to prove that the
proposed causal discovery method obtains asymptotic false discovery control
under mild conditions. We provide an algorithm, make available code, and test
our method on simulated data. It is robust against model violations and
outperforms state-of-the-art approaches. We further apply our method to a real
data set, where we show that it does not only output causal predictors, but
also a process-based clustering of data points, which could be of additional
interest to practitioners.Comment: 46 pages, 14 figures; real-world application added in Section 5.2;
additional numerical experiments added in the Appendix
Time Series Analysis
We provide a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains, with lots of references for further reading.time series analysis, time domain, frequency domain
Time Series Analysis
We provide a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains, with lots of references for further reading.time series analysis, time domain, frequency domain, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
Modeling and forecasting persistent financial durations
This paper introduces the Markov-Switching Multifractal Duration (MSMD) model by adapting the MSM stochastic volatility model of Calvet and Fisher (2004) to the duration setting. Although the MSMD process is exponential \udf-mixing as we show in the paper, it is capable of generating highly persistent autocorrelation. We study analytically and by simulation how this feature of durations generated by the MSMD process propagates to counts and realized volatility. We employ a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the MSMD parameters based on the Whittle approximation and establish its strong consistency and asymptotic normality for general MSMD specifications. We show that the Whittle estimation is a computationally simple and fast alternative to maximum likelihood. Finally, we compare the performance of the MSMD model with competing short- and long-memory duration models in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise based on price durations of three major foreign exchange futures contracts. The results of the comparison show that the MSMD and the Long Memory Stochastic Duration model perform similarly and are superior to the short-memory Autoregressive Conditional Duration models
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