Forecasting Project's evolution. A step forward from the EVMS.

The goal of this work is to define a framework for project forecasting activities as well as to set up proposals regarding improvement for some of the tools involved in these processes. In particular attention will be payed to Earned Value Management System (EVMS) tool as it is a well known instrument for project monitoring and, in some cases, for project forecasting too. Main inn ovation in this work is the proposal for estimation SPI and CPI indexes on the next future of the project in accordance to their previous values as well as to the impact in the project of non technical factor slike team construction, common vision for the project and other managerial aspects related to it. Anew model is provided in this paper allowing to process surveys based information from the project team in order to adjust the estimation for next values of already mentioned EVMS indexes, in order to produce a more consistent forecasting for the project evolution

Earned Value Management (EVM) Implementation Handbook

The purpose of this handbook is to provide Earned Value Management (EVM) guidance for the effective application, implementation, and utilization of EVM on NASA programs, projects, major contracts and subcontracts in a consolidated reference document. EVM is a project management process that effectively integrates a project?s scope of work with schedule and cost elements for optimum project planning and control. The goal is to achieve timely and accurate quantification of progress that will facilitate management by exception and enable early visibility into the nature and the magnitude of technical problems as well as the intended course and success of corrective actions

Meta-Heuristics Analysis for Technologically Complex Programs: Understanding the Impact of Total Constraints for Schedule, Quality and Cost

Program management data associated with a technically complex radio frequency electronics base communication system has been collected and analyzed to identify heuristics which may be utilized in addition to existing processes and procedures to provide indicators that a program is trending to failure. Analysis of the collected data includes detailed schedule analysis, detailed earned value management analysis and defect analysis within the framework of a Firm Fixed Price (FFP) incentive fee contract. This project develops heuristics and provides recommendations for analysis of complex project management efforts such as those discussed herein. The analysis of the effects of the constraints on management of the program indicate that, unless unambiguous program management controls are applied very early to milestone execution and risk management, then plans, schedules, tasks, and resource allocation will not be successful in controlling the constraints of schedule, quality or cost

Risk-Based Decision Model for Determining the Applicability of an Earned Value Management System in Construction

New policy mandated by the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics has lowered the dollar thresholds of contracts requiring earned value management (EVM). This policy directed that a risk-based decision be made to determine if EVM should be used on firm-fixed price contracts under $20 million. Although not previously applicable to Military Construction (MILCON) building projects or other Air Force Civil Engineer (CE) managed contracts, the new threshold requires that CE projects be evaluated for risk. Therefore, the focus of this research was to analyze the risk factors associated with construction contracts in an attempt to build a decision model to determine if EVM is warranted on the project. Due to the cost of implementing EVM, this model should probably be used only on Air Force construction projects with cost estimates over$5 million. If the cost growth predicted by the model is greater than 5%, the use of EVM is recommended to monitor the risk factors. However, this recommendation should be tempered with the overall risk associated with a given project. In other words, if the calculated cost growth is high but the probability of occurrence is low, the decision-maker may want to forego the use of EVM and the associated costs. The questions addressed by this research are as follows: (1) What risk factors affect the cost or schedule of Air Force construction projects?; (2) What is the probability of occurrence of the identified risk factors?; (3) What is the subsequent cost growth due to the occurrence of the risk factors?; and (4) How many Air Force construction projects accomplished in the last 5 years and those programmed through FY12 exceed the $20M threshold or fall into a range that must be evaluated

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earned Value Management System Criteria

In December 1996, the Cost/Schedule Control Systems Criteria (C/SCSC) was officially replaced by the Earned Value Management Systems (EVMS) criteria. The switch to EVMS, coupled with current acquisition reform changes, have left many wondering what the effects of these changes will be. This thesis defines the costs and benefits of the old C/SCSC, and then compares them. Additionally, this thesis discusses the changes accompanying the switch to EVMS and the effect on the costs and benefits. The marginal costs of C/SCSC are defined as the difference between the costs of a C/SCSC compliant system and a contractors normal management control system. The marginal system compliance costs are 334-481 person days, while the marginal operating costs are 50% of the C/SCSC compliant operating costs. Fourteen benefits of C/SCSC are detailed in this thesis. The most important benefit discovered was the data reliability that comes with a criteria compliant management control system. The main difference between C/SCSC and EVMS is the system certification process. Under C/SCSC, DoD teams would have to certify a contractor\u27s system. Under EVMS, contractors have the ability to self-certify their system (with final government approval). Cost savings may result through self-certification without reductions in the benefits

Systemic Risk Analysis of Human Factors in Phishing

The scope of this study is the systemic risk of the role of humans in the risk of phishing. The relevance to engineering managers and systems engineers of the risks of phishing attacks is the theft of data which has significantly increased in the past couple of years. Phishing has become a systemic persistent threat to all internet users. Understanding the role of humans in phishing from a systemic perspective is a critical objective towards creating a strong defense against complex and manipulative phishing attacks. The systemic view of phishing concentrates on how phishing affects the entire organizational system, not just parts or individual components of a system. This study will address the systemic view of phishing which puts focus on how the entire organizational system performs and the purposeful tasks and goals to minimize phishing. This study will use a grounded theory approach to the following questions. First, how can the interaction between the human and the phishing lure be adjusted to mitigate the risk of phishing (i.e., from a systemic perspective)? Second, how can developing a systematic method help in mitigating the risk of phishing by reducing the likelihood of a successful attack? With the advanced persistent threat of phishing, this study anticipates assisting organizations in measuring how proficiently they are presently handling the risk of phishing and to suggest how the organizations can increase their proficiency and mitigate the risk of phishing

Earned Value Management (EVM) System Description

The purpose of this Earned Value Management (EVM) System Description is to provide guidance in NASAs Earned Value Management Capability for the effective application, implementation, and utilization of EVM on NASA programs, projects, major contracts and subcontracts. EVM is a project management process that effectively integrates a projects scope of work with schedule and cost elements for optimum project planning and control. The goal is to achieve timely and accurate quantification of progress that will facilitate management by exception and enable early visibility into the nature and the magnitude of technical problems as well as the intended course and success of corrective actions. This system description contains detailed information on implementation of EVM processes, procedures, roles and responsibilities

Superpath: A Non-Computerized Probabilistic Scheduling Methodology Using First Principles of the U. S. Navy's Program Evaluation Review Technique

The Superpath method, a non-computerized probabilistic scheduling methodology relying upon first principles of the Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) and a summary level, event-centric network is presented. Like PERT, a network scheduling methodology developed by the United States Navy during the development of the Polaris submarine launched ballistic missile program of the 1950s, Superpath employs probabilistic techniques within a network-based time management platform allowing for the assessment of program or project performance against calendar dates certain. The proposed methodology relies upon the identification of easily identifiable, distinguishable, unambiguous and measureable events along with either short term probabilistic or deterministic time estimates for the single summary paths, or Superpaths, that lie between. A fundamental tenet of the Superpath approach is that the topology of several key events or reference points in time, vice hundreds or thousands of activities, forms a valid basis from which to perform a schedule analysis. Once this simplified network is constructed, conventional deterministic calculations are performed to determine the slack along each Superpath affording the capability of evaluating the probability of the project's on-time completion. Superpath also accommodates the nearness of non-critical superpaths, a limitation of PERT and modern-day CPM. Superpath differs from the Critical Path Method (CPM), perhaps the most common network scheduling methodology as of 2008 and widely employed within the projects and programs of public and private industry. CPM is a network based methodology that relies upon a relatively large number of work activities and multiple types of network relationships as the basic network. CPM is task focused whereas Superpath focuses on discrete events and considers the interstitial space between events in far less detail. Complex relationships, sequential activities, "logic lags," constraints, calendars and the daily unit of measure are also aspects of CPM not found in Superpath. Generally, probabilistic analysis of time is not part of a CPM methodology, which relies upon a deterministic treatment of time using a single estimated durations for each activity

COMPARATIVE CASE STUDY: EXPEDITIONARY FIGHTING VEHICLE AND AMPHIBIOUS COMBAT VEHICLE

The Marine Corps Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) program cost taxpayers over $3 billion from inception to cancellation. The Amphibious Combat Vehicle (ACV) attempts to replace the Amphibious Assault Vehicle (AAV) and pick up where the EFV left off. A program comparison can be used to learn from previous management mistakes and prevent failures of this magnitude. By analyzing the two amphibious vehicle programs, I assess pertinent successes and failures against the model with available program management tools, including decision science principles. This report compares key junctures in both programs' life cycles and offers recommendations for future amphibious combat vehicle acquisition. The conclusion reveals that unbalanced cost and schedule increases overpowered the EFV performance goal, leading to cancellation. As a result, the ACV shows less performance but at a lower cost in comparison. Through research, acquisition professionals can better understand the importance of oversight, find solutions, and effectively equip themselves to manage major defense weapon systems.ARPMajor, United States Marine CorpsApproved for public release. Distribution is unlimited

Earned Value Management (EVM): Reference Guide for Project-Control Account Managers

The purpose of this guide is intended to be a quick reference for a Project-Control Account Manager (P CAM) or technical manager empowered with a projects cost, schedule, and technical responsibilities of a control account(s) when Earned Value Management (EVM) is required. The overall objective is to support the P CAM in performing their responsibilities as they relate to EVM. In addition, the reference guide describes at a summary level how the scope, schedule, and budget of a project integrate for optimal planning and control of prime contracts and in-house projects