A Multi-Gene Genetic Programming Application for Predicting Students Failure at School

Several efforts to predict student failure rate (SFR) at school accurately still remains a core problem area faced by many in the educational sector. The procedure for forecasting SFR are rigid and most often times require data scaling or conversion into binary form such as is the case of the logistic model which may lead to lose of information and effect size attenuation. Also, the high number of factors, incomplete and unbalanced dataset, and black boxing issues as in Artificial Neural Networks and Fuzzy logic systems exposes the need for more efficient tools. Currently the application of Genetic Programming (GP) holds great promises and has produced tremendous positive results in different sectors. In this regard, this study developed GPSFARPS, a software application to provide a robust solution to the prediction of SFR using an evolutionary algorithm known as multi-gene genetic programming. The approach is validated by feeding a testing data set to the evolved GP models. Result obtained from GPSFARPS simulations show its unique ability to evolve a suitable failure rate expression with a fast convergence at 30 generations from a maximum specified generation of 500. The multi-gene system was also able to minimize the evolved model expression and accurately predict student failure rate using a subset of the original expressionComment: 14 pages, 9 figures, Journal paper. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1403.0623 by other author

An Efficient Mixed Integer Programming Algorithm for Minimizing the Training Sample Misclassification Cost in Two-group Classification

In this paper, we introduce the Divide and Conquer (D&C) algorithm, a computationally efficient algorithm for determining classification rules which minimize the training sample misclassification cost in two-group classification. This classification rule can be derived using mixed integer programming (MIP) techniques. However, it is well-documented that the complexity of MIP-based classification problems grows exponentially as a function of the size of the training sample and the number of attributes describing the observations, requiring special-purpose algorithms to solve even small size problems within a reasonable computational time. The D&C algorithm derives its name from the fact that it relies, a.o., on partitioning the problem in smaller, more easily handled subproblems, rendering it substantially faster than previously proposed algorithms. The D&C algorithm solves the problem to the exact optimal solution (i.e., it is not a heuristic that approximates the solution), and allows for the analysis of much larger training samples than previous methods. For instance, our computational experiments indicate that, on average, the D&C algorithm solves problems with 2 attributes and 500 observations more than 3 times faster, and problems with 5 attributes and 100 observations over 50 times faster than Soltysik and Yarnold's software, which may be the fastest existing algorithm. We believe that the D&C algorithm contributes significantly to the field of classification analysis, because it substantially widens the array of data sets that can be analyzed meaningfully using methods which require MIP techniques, in particular methods which seek to minimize the misclassification cost in the training sample. The programs implementing the D&C algorithm are available from the authors upon request

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

Origins of Modern Data Analysis Linked to the Beginnings and Early Development of Computer Science and Information Engineering

The history of data analysis that is addressed here is underpinned by two themes, -- those of tabular data analysis, and the analysis of collected heterogeneous data. "Exploratory data analysis" is taken as the heuristic approach that begins with data and information and seeks underlying explanation for what is observed or measured. I also cover some of the evolving context of research and applications, including scholarly publishing, technology transfer and the economic relationship of the university to society.Comment: 26 page

Developmental Robots - A New Paradigm

It has been proved to be extremely challenging for humans to program a robot to such a sufficient degree that it acts properly in a typical unknown human environment. This is especially true for a humanoid robot due to the very large number of redundant degrees of freedom and a large number of sensors that are required for a humanoid to work safely and effectively in the human environment. How can we address this fundamental problem? Motivated by human mental development from infancy to adulthood, we present a theory, an architecture, and some experimental results showing how to enable a robot to develop its mind automatically, through online, real time interactions with its environment. Humans mentally “raise” the robot through “robot sitting” and “robot schools” instead of task-specific robot programming

Nonparametric Two-Group Classification: Concepts and a SAS-Based Software Package

In this paper, we introduce BestClass, a set of SAS macros, available in the mainframe and workstation environment, designed for solving two-group classification problems using a class of recently developed nonparametric classification methods. The criteria used to estimate the classification function are based on either minimizing a function of the absolute deviations from the surface which separates the groups, or directly minimizing a function of the number of misclassified entities in the training sample. The solution techniques used by BestClass to estimate the classification rule utilize the mathematical programming routines of the SAS/OR@ software. Recently, a number of research studies have reported that under certain data conditions this class of classification methods can provide more accurate classification results than existing methods, such as Fisher's linear discriminant function and logistic regression. However, these robust classification methods have not yet been implemented in the major statistical packages, and hence are beyond the reach of those statistical analysts who are unfamiliar with mathematical programming techniques. We use a limited simulation experiment and an example to compare and contrast properties of the methods included in BestClass with existing parametric and nonparametric methods. We believe that BestClass contributes significantly to the field of nonparametric classification analysis, in that it provides the statistical community with convenient access to this recently developed class of methods. BestClass is available from the authors