A Methodology for Assessing Dynamic Resilience of Coastal Cities to Climate Change Influenced Hydrometeorological Disasters

Confronted with rapid urbanization, intensified tourism, population densification, increased migration, and climate change impacts, coastal cities are facing more challenges now than ever before. Traditional disaster management approaches are no longer sufficient to address the increased pressures facing urban areas. A paradigm shift from disaster risk reduction to disaster resilience building strategies is required to provide holistic, integrated, and sustainable disaster management looking forward. To address some of the shortcomings in current disaster resilience assessment research, a mathematical and computational framework was developed to help quantify, compare, and visualize dynamic disaster resilience. The proposed methodological framework for disaster resilience combines physical, economic, engineering, health, and social spatio-temporal impacts and capacities of urban systems in order to provide a more holistic representation of disaster resilience. To capture the dynamic spatio-temporal characteristics of resilience and gauge the effectiveness of potential climate change adaptation options, a disaster resilience simulator tool (DRST) was developed to employ the mathematical framework. The DRST is applied to a case study in Metro Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The simulation model focuses on the impacts of climate change-influenced riverine flooding and sea level rise for three future climates based on the results of the CGCM3 global climate model and two (2) future emissions scenarios. The output of the analyses includes a dynamic set of resilience maps and graphs to demonstrate changes in disaster resilience in both space and time. The DRST demonstrates the value of a quantitative resilience assessment approach to disaster management. Simulation results suggest that various adaptation options such as access to emergency funding, provision of mobile hospital services, and managed retreat can all help to increase disaster resilience. Results also suggest that, at a regional scale, Metro Vancouver is relatively resilient to climate change influenced-hydrometeorological hazards, however it is not distributed proportionately across the region. Although a pioneering effort by nature, the methodological and computational framework behind the DRST could ultimately provide decision support to disaster management professionals, policy makers, and urban planners

Distributed simulation of city inundation by coupled surface and subsurface porous flow for urban flood decision support system

We present a decision support system for flood early warning and disaster management. It includes the models for data-driven meteorological predictions, for simulation of atmospheric pressure, wind, long sea waves and seiches; a module for optimization of flood barrier gates operation; models for stability assessment of levees and embankments, for simulation of city inundation dynamics and citizens evacuation scenarios. The novelty of this paper is a coupled distributed simulation of surface and subsurface flows that can predict inundation of low-lying inland zones far from the submerged waterfront areas, as observed in St. Petersburg city during the floods. All the models are wrapped as software services in the CLAVIRE platform for urgent computing, which provides workflow management and resource orchestration.Comment: Pre-print submitted to the 2013 International Conference on Computational Scienc

Quantifying the digital traces of Hurricane Sandy on Flickr

Society’s increasing interactions with technology are creating extensive “digital traces” of our collective human behavior. These new data sources are fuelling the rapid development of the new field of computational social science. To investigate user attention to the Hurricane Sandy disaster in 2012, we analyze data from Flickr, a popular website for sharing personal photographs. In this case study, we find that the number of photos taken and subsequently uploaded to Flickr with titles, descriptions or tags related to Hurricane Sandy bears a striking correlation to the atmospheric pressure in the US state New Jersey during this period. Appropriate leverage of such information could be useful to policy makers and others charged with emergency crisis management

Towards a Semantic Grid Computing Platform for Disaster Management in Built Environment

Current disaster management procedures rely primarily on heuristics which result in their strategies being very cautious and sub-optimum in terms of saving life, minimising damage and returning the building to its normal function. Also effective disaster management demands decentralized, dynamic, flexible, short term and across domain resource sharing, which is not well supported by existing distributing computing infrastructres. The paper proposes a conceptual framework for emergency management in the built environment, using Semantic Grid as an integrating platform for different technologies. The framework supports a distributed network of specialists in built environment, including structural engineers, building technologists, decision analysts etc. It brings together the necessary technology threads, including the Semantic Web (to provide a framework for shared definitions of terms, resources and relationships), Web Services (to provide dynamic discovery and integration) and Grid Computing (for enhanced computational power, high speed access, collaboration and security control) to support rapid formation of virtual teams for disaster management. The proposed framework also make an extensive use of modelling and simulation (both numerical and using visualisations), data mining (to find resources in legacy data sets) and visualisation. It also include a variety of hardware instruments with access to real time data. Furthermore the whole framework is centred on collaborative working by the virtual team. Although focus of this paper is on disaster management, many aspects of the discussed Grid and Visualisation technologies will be useful for any other forms of collaboration. Conclusions are drawn about the possible future impact on the built environment