Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty

Enriched property ontology for knowledge systems : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Information Systems in Information Systems, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

"It is obvious that every individual thing or event has an indefinite number of properties or attributes observable in it and might therefore be considered as belonging to an indefinite number of different classes of things" [Venn 1876]. The world in which we try to mimic in Knowledge Based (KB) Systems is essentially extremely complex especially when we attempt to develop systems that cover a domain of discourse with an almost infinite number of possible properties. Thus if we are to develop such systems how do we know what properties we wish to extract to make a decision and how do we ensure the value of our findings are the most relevant in our decision making. Equally how do we have tractable computations, considering the potential computation complexity of systems required for decision making within a very large domain. In this thesis we consider this problem in terms of medical decision making. Medical KB systems have the potential to be very useful aids for diagnosis, medical guidance and patient data monitoring. For example in a diagnostic process in certain scenarios patients may provide various potential symptoms of a disease and have defining characteristics. Although considerable information could be obtained, there may be difficulty in correlating a patient's data to known diseases in an economic and efficient manner. This would occur where a practitioner lacks a specific specialised knowledge. Considering the vastness of knowledge in the domain of medicine this could occur frequently. For example a Physician with considerable experience in a specialised domain such as breast cancer may easily be able to diagnose patients and decide on the value of appropriate symptoms given an abstraction process however an inexperienced Physician or Generalist may not have this facility.[FROM INTRODUCTION

Unthinkable Syndromes.\ud Paradoxa of Relevance and Constraints on Diagnostic Categories

Bodies of collective knowledge evolve through individual\ud action, like all products that have a use. They also can be\ud evaluated from the engineer's optimizing design perspective.\ud But can individual participants in their making\ud recognize local optimality? Can they work to realize it? Are\ud they unable to act seriosly in a way that would ensure\ud acquisition of a certain suboptimal design feature?\ud One might hope for a simple answer: appeal to innate\ud constraints on the form of categorization. But such constraints\ud cannot wholly pre-empt the need for individual\ud checks and thus for agency. The use of categorial\ud schemes engages facts about the world that do not leap to\ud the eye. They are unlike syntactic or phonological constraints\ud of language, or edge-and orientation-detection\ud algorithms of visual perception.\ud What we should thus be looking for will be modest:\ud constraints, innate or otherwise, that rule out the choice of\ud categorial schemes which are clearly suboptimal and that\ud are, in principle, open to agents' instant observation. We\ud look to a limited if important domain of systematic knowledge:\ud medical diagnostic knowledge

Deep Gaussian Processes

In this paper we introduce deep Gaussian process (GP) models. Deep GPs are a deep belief network based on Gaussian process mappings. The data is modeled as the output of a multivariate GP. The inputs to that Gaussian process are then governed by another GP. A single layer model is equivalent to a standard GP or the GP latent variable model (GP-LVM). We perform inference in the model by approximate variational marginalization. This results in a strict lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the model which we use for model selection (number of layers and nodes per layer). Deep belief networks are typically applied to relatively large data sets using stochastic gradient descent for optimization. Our fully Bayesian treatment allows for the application of deep models even when data is scarce. Model selection by our variational bound shows that a five layer hierarchy is justified even when modelling a digit data set containing only 150 examples.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures. Appearing in Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 201