2,543 research outputs found
Mean-Payoff Optimization in Continuous-Time Markov Chains with Parametric Alarms
Continuous-time Markov chains with alarms (ACTMCs) allow for alarm events
that can be non-exponentially distributed. Within parametric ACTMCs, the
parameters of alarm-event distributions are not given explicitly and can be
subject of parameter synthesis. An algorithm solving the -optimal
parameter synthesis problem for parametric ACTMCs with long-run average
optimization objectives is presented. Our approach is based on reduction of the
problem to finding long-run average optimal strategies in semi-Markov decision
processes (semi-MDPs) and sufficient discretization of parameter (i.e., action)
space. Since the set of actions in the discretized semi-MDP can be very large,
a straightforward approach based on explicit action-space construction fails to
solve even simple instances of the problem. The presented algorithm uses an
enhanced policy iteration on symbolic representations of the action space. The
soundness of the algorithm is established for parametric ACTMCs with
alarm-event distributions satisfying four mild assumptions that are shown to
hold for uniform, Dirac and Weibull distributions in particular, but are
satisfied for many other distributions as well. An experimental implementation
shows that the symbolic technique substantially improves the efficiency of the
synthesis algorithm and allows to solve instances of realistic size.Comment: This article is a full version of a paper accepted to the Conference
on Quantitative Evaluation of SysTems (QEST) 201
Approximations of countably-infinite linear programs over bounded measure spaces
We study a class of countably-infinite-dimensional linear programs (CILPs)
whose feasible sets are bounded subsets of appropriately defined weighted
spaces of measures. We show how to approximate the optimal value, optimal
points, and minimal points of these CILPs by solving finite-dimensional linear
programs. The errors of our approximations converge to zero as the size of the
finite-dimensional program approaches that of the original problem and are easy
to bound in practice. We discuss the use of our methods in the computation of
the stationary distributions, occupation measures, and exit distributions of
Markov~chains
Quantitative Approximation of the Probability Distribution of a Markov Process by Formal Abstractions
The goal of this work is to formally abstract a Markov process evolving in
discrete time over a general state space as a finite-state Markov chain, with
the objective of precisely approximating its state probability distribution in
time, which allows for its approximate, faster computation by that of the
Markov chain. The approach is based on formal abstractions and employs an
arbitrary finite partition of the state space of the Markov process, and the
computation of average transition probabilities between partition sets. The
abstraction technique is formal, in that it comes with guarantees on the
introduced approximation that depend on the diameters of the partitions: as
such, they can be tuned at will. Further in the case of Markov processes with
unbounded state spaces, a procedure for precisely truncating the state space
within a compact set is provided, together with an error bound that depends on
the asymptotic properties of the transition kernel of the original process. The
overall abstraction algorithm, which practically hinges on piecewise constant
approximations of the density functions of the Markov process, is extended to
higher-order function approximations: these can lead to improved error bounds
and associated lower computational requirements. The approach is practically
tested to compute probabilistic invariance of the Markov process under study,
and is compared to a known alternative approach from the literature.Comment: 29 pages, Journal of Logical Methods in Computer Scienc
On Universal Prediction and Bayesian Confirmation
The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for
inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation,
parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But
standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not
always available or fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff
completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and
universal choice for the model class and the prior. We discuss in breadth how
and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various
(philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. We show
that Solomonoff's model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and
weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior
densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal
hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the
old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well (actually better) in
non-computable environments.Comment: 24 page
Solving Factored MDPs with Hybrid State and Action Variables
Efficient representations and solutions for large decision problems with
continuous and discrete variables are among the most important challenges faced
by the designers of automated decision support systems. In this paper, we
describe a novel hybrid factored Markov decision process (MDP) model that
allows for a compact representation of these problems, and a new hybrid
approximate linear programming (HALP) framework that permits their efficient
solutions. The central idea of HALP is to approximate the optimal value
function by a linear combination of basis functions and optimize its weights by
linear programming. We analyze both theoretical and computational aspects of
this approach, and demonstrate its scale-up potential on several hybrid
optimization problems
Sampling-based Approximations with Quantitative Performance for the Probabilistic Reach-Avoid Problem over General Markov Processes
This article deals with stochastic processes endowed with the Markov
(memoryless) property and evolving over general (uncountable) state spaces. The
models further depend on a non-deterministic quantity in the form of a control
input, which can be selected to affect the probabilistic dynamics. We address
the computation of maximal reach-avoid specifications, together with the
synthesis of the corresponding optimal controllers. The reach-avoid
specification deals with assessing the likelihood that any finite-horizon
trajectory of the model enters a given goal set, while avoiding a given set of
undesired states. This article newly provides an approximate computational
scheme for the reach-avoid specification based on the Fitted Value Iteration
algorithm, which hinges on random sample extractions, and gives a-priori
computable formal probabilistic bounds on the error made by the approximation
algorithm: as such, the output of the numerical scheme is quantitatively
assessed and thus meaningful for safety-critical applications. Furthermore, we
provide tighter probabilistic error bounds that are sample-based. The overall
computational scheme is put in relationship with alternative approximation
algorithms in the literature, and finally its performance is practically
assessed over a benchmark case study
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