Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio

Diffusion-annihilation processes in complex networks

We present a detailed analytical study of the $A+A\to\emptyset$ diffusion-annihilation process in complex networks. By means of microscopic arguments, we derive a set of rate equations for the density of $A$ particles in vertices of a given degree, valid for any generic degree distribution, and which we solve for uncorrelated networks. For homogeneous networks (with bounded fluctuations), we recover the standard mean-field solution, i.e. a particle density decreasing as the inverse of time. For heterogeneous (scale-free networks) in the infinite network size limit, we obtain instead a density decreasing as a power-law, with an exponent depending on the degree distribution. We also analyze the role of finite size effects, showing that any finite scale-free network leads to the mean-field behavior, with a prefactor depending on the network size. We check our analytical predictions with extensive numerical simulations on homogeneous networks with Poisson degree distribution and scale-free networks with different degree exponents.Comment: 9 pages, 5 EPS figure

Complex determinantal processes and H1 noise

For the plane, sphere, and hyperbolic plane we consider the canonical invariant determinantal point processes with intensity rho dnu, where nu is the corresponding invariant measure. We show that as rho converges to infinity, after centering, these processes converge to invariant H1 noise. More precisely, for all functions f in the interesection of H1(nu) and L1(nu) the distribution of sum f(z) - rho/pi integral f dnu converges to Gaussian with mean 0 and variance given by ||f||_H1^2 / (4 pi).Comment: 22 pages, 1 figur

Intrinsic Gaussian processes on complex constrained domains

We propose a class of intrinsic Gaussian processes (in-GPs) for interpolation, regression and classification on manifolds with a primary focus on complex constrained domains or irregular shaped spaces arising as subsets or submanifolds of R, R2, R3 and beyond. For example, in-GPs can accommodate spatial domains arising as complex subsets of Euclidean space. in-GPs respect the potentially complex boundary or interior conditions as well as the intrinsic geometry of the spaces. The key novelty of the proposed approach is to utilise the relationship between heat kernels and the transition density of Brownian motion on manifolds for constructing and approximating valid and computationally feasible covariance kernels. This enables in-GPs to be practically applied in great generality, while existing approaches for smoothing on constrained domains are limited to simple special cases. The broad utilities of the in-GP approach is illustrated through simulation studies and data examples

Multi-state epidemic processes on complex networks

Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks underlying infection events are often much more complex than described by meanfield equations or regular lattices. In models with simple transition rules such as the SIS and SIR models, heterogeneous contact rates are known to decrease epidemic thresholds. We analyze steady states of various multi-state disease propagation models with heterogeneous contact rates. In many models, heterogeneity simply decreases epidemic thresholds. However, in models with competing pathogens and mutation, coexistence of different pathogens for small infection rates requires network-independent conditions in addition to heterogeneity in contact rates. Furthermore, models without spontaneous neighbor-independent state transitions, such as cyclically competing species, do not show heterogeneity effects.Comment: 7 figures, 1 tabl

Multicomponent reaction-diffusion processes on complex networks

We study the reaction-diffusion process $A + B \to \emptyset$ on uncorrelated scale-free networks analytically. By a mean-field ansatz we derive analytical expressions for the particle pair-correlations and the particle density. Expressing the time evolution of the particle density in terms of the instantaneous particle pair-correlations, we determine analytically the `jamming' effect which arises in the case of multicomponent, pair-wise reactions. Comparing the relevant terms within the differential equation for the particle density, we find that the `jamming' effect diminishes in the long-time, low-density limit. This even holds true for the hubs of the network, despite that the hubs dynamically attract the particles.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Modeling spatial social complex networks for dynamical processes

The study of social networks --- where people are located, geographically, and how they might be connected to one another --- is a current hot topic of interest, because of its immediate relevance to important applications, from devising efficient immunization techniques for the arrest of epidemics, to the design of better transportation and city planning paradigms, to the understanding of how rumors and opinions spread and take shape over time. We develop a spatial social complex network (SSCN) model that captures not only essential connectivity features of real-life social networks, including a heavy-tailed degree distribution and high clustering, but also the spatial location of individuals, reproducing Zipf's law for the distribution of city populations as well as other observed hallmarks. We then simulate Milgram's Small-World experiment on our SSCN model, obtaining good qualitative agreement with the known results and shedding light on the role played by various network attributes and the strategies used by the players in the game. This demonstrates the potential of the SSCN model for the simulation and study of the many social processes mentioned above, where both connectivity and geography play a role in the dynamics.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure