Competing with Gaussian linear experts

We study the problem of online regression. We prove a theoretical bound on the square loss of Ridge Regression. We do not make any assumptions about input vectors or outcomes. We also show that Bayesian Ridge Regression can be thought of as an online algorithm competing with all the Gaussian linear experts

String and Membrane Gaussian Processes

In this paper we introduce a novel framework for making exact nonparametric Bayesian inference on latent functions, that is particularly suitable for Big Data tasks. Firstly, we introduce a class of stochastic processes we refer to as string Gaussian processes (string GPs), which are not to be mistaken for Gaussian processes operating on text. We construct string GPs so that their finite-dimensional marginals exhibit suitable local conditional independence structures, which allow for scalable, distributed, and flexible nonparametric Bayesian inference, without resorting to approximations, and while ensuring some mild global regularity constraints. Furthermore, string GP priors naturally cope with heterogeneous input data, and the gradient of the learned latent function is readily available for explanatory analysis. Secondly, we provide some theoretical results relating our approach to the standard GP paradigm. In particular, we prove that some string GPs are Gaussian processes, which provides a complementary global perspective on our framework. Finally, we derive a scalable and distributed MCMC scheme for supervised learning tasks under string GP priors. The proposed MCMC scheme has computational time complexity $\mathcal{O}(N)$ and memory requirement $\mathcal{O}(dN)$, where $N$ is the data size and $d$ the dimension of the input space. We illustrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on several synthetic and real-world datasets, including a dataset with $6$ millions input points and $8$ attributes.Comment: To appear in the Journal of Machine Learning Research (JMLR), Volume 1

Competing With Strategies

We study the problem of online learning with a notion of regret defined with respect to a set of strategies. We develop tools for analyzing the minimax rates and for deriving regret-minimization algorithms in this scenario. While the standard methods for minimizing the usual notion of regret fail, through our analysis we demonstrate existence of regret-minimization methods that compete with such sets of strategies as: autoregressive algorithms, strategies based on statistical models, regularized least squares, and follow the regularized leader strategies. In several cases we also derive efficient learning algorithms

Using graphical models and multi-attribute utility theory for probabilistic uncertainty handling in large systems, with application to nuclear emergency management

Although many decision-making problems involve uncertainty, uncertainty handling within large decision support systems (DSSs) is challenging. One domain where uncertainty handling is critical is emergency response management, in particular nuclear emergency response, where decision making takes place in an uncertain, dynamically changing environment. Assimilation and analysis of data can help to reduce these uncertainties, but it is critical to do this in an efficient and defensible way. After briefly introducing the structure of a typical DSS for nuclear emergencies, the paper sets up a theoretical structure that enables a formal Bayesian decision analysis to be performed for environments like this within a DSS architecture. In such probabilistic DSSs many input conditional probability distributions are provided by different sets of experts overseeing different aspects of the emergency. These probabilities are then used by the decision maker (DM) to find her optimal decision. We demonstrate in this paper that unless due care is taken in such a composite framework, coherence and rationality may be compromised in a sense made explicit below. The technology we describe here builds a framework around which Bayesian data updating can be performed in a modular way, ensuring both coherence and efficiency, and provides sufficient unambiguous information to enable the DM to discover her expected utility maximizing policy

Random Feature-based Online Multi-kernel Learning in Environments with Unknown Dynamics

Kernel-based methods exhibit well-documented performance in various nonlinear learning tasks. Most of them rely on a preselected kernel, whose prudent choice presumes task-specific prior information. Especially when the latter is not available, multi-kernel learning has gained popularity thanks to its flexibility in choosing kernels from a prescribed kernel dictionary. Leveraging the random feature approximation and its recent orthogonality-promoting variant, the present contribution develops a scalable multi-kernel learning scheme (termed Raker) to obtain the sought nonlinear learning function `on the fly,' first for static environments. To further boost performance in dynamic environments, an adaptive multi-kernel learning scheme (termed AdaRaker) is developed. AdaRaker accounts not only for data-driven learning of kernel combination, but also for the unknown dynamics. Performance is analyzed in terms of both static and dynamic regrets. AdaRaker is uniquely capable of tracking nonlinear learning functions in environments with unknown dynamics, and with with analytic performance guarantees. Tests with synthetic and real datasets are carried out to showcase the effectiveness of the novel algorithms.Comment: 36 page

OBOE: Collaborative Filtering for AutoML Model Selection

Algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning remain two of the most challenging tasks in machine learning. Automated machine learning (AutoML) seeks to automate these tasks to enable widespread use of machine learning by non-experts. This paper introduces OBOE, a collaborative filtering method for time-constrained model selection and hyperparameter tuning. OBOE forms a matrix of the cross-validated errors of a large number of supervised learning models (algorithms together with hyperparameters) on a large number of datasets, and fits a low rank model to learn the low-dimensional feature vectors for the models and datasets that best predict the cross-validated errors. To find promising models for a new dataset, OBOE runs a set of fast but informative algorithms on the new dataset and uses their cross-validated errors to infer the feature vector for the new dataset. OBOE can find good models under constraints on the number of models fit or the total time budget. To this end, this paper develops a new heuristic for active learning in time-constrained matrix completion based on optimal experiment design. Our experiments demonstrate that OBOE delivers state-of-the-art performance faster than competing approaches on a test bed of supervised learning problems. Moreover, the success of the bilinear model used by OBOE suggests that AutoML may be simpler than was previously understood