63,096 research outputs found
Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series
© 2015 American Physical Society.Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques, such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal preselection step which drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than commonly used suboptimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a climatological index of El Niño Southern Oscillation
Optimal model-free prediction from multivariate time series
Forecasting a time series from multivariate predictors constitutes a
challenging problem, especially using model-free approaches. Most techniques,
such as nearest-neighbor prediction, quickly suffer from the curse of
dimensionality and overfitting for more than a few predictors which has limited
their application mostly to the univariate case. Therefore, selection
strategies are needed that harness the available information as efficiently as
possible. Since often the right combination of predictors matters, ideally all
subsets of possible predictors should be tested for their predictive power, but
the exponentially growing number of combinations makes such an approach
computationally prohibitive. Here a prediction scheme that overcomes this
strong limitation is introduced utilizing a causal pre-selection step which
drastically reduces the number of possible predictors to the most predictive
set of causal drivers making a globally optimal search scheme tractable. The
information-theoretic optimality is derived and practical selection criteria
are discussed. As demonstrated for multivariate nonlinear stochastic delay
processes, the optimal scheme can even be less computationally expensive than
commonly used sub-optimal schemes like forward selection. The method suggests a
general framework to apply the optimal model-free approach to select variables
and subsequently fit a model to further improve a prediction or learn
statistical dependencies. The performance of this framework is illustrated on a
climatological index of El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figure
Session-based Recommendation with Graph Neural Networks
The problem of session-based recommendation aims to predict user actions
based on anonymous sessions. Previous methods model a session as a sequence and
estimate user representations besides item representations to make
recommendations. Though achieved promising results, they are insufficient to
obtain accurate user vectors in sessions and neglect complex transitions of
items. To obtain accurate item embedding and take complex transitions of items
into account, we propose a novel method, i.e. Session-based Recommendation with
Graph Neural Networks, SR-GNN for brevity. In the proposed method, session
sequences are modeled as graph-structured data. Based on the session graph, GNN
can capture complex transitions of items, which are difficult to be revealed by
previous conventional sequential methods. Each session is then represented as
the composition of the global preference and the current interest of that
session using an attention network. Extensive experiments conducted on two real
datasets show that SR-GNN evidently outperforms the state-of-the-art
session-based recommendation methods consistently.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted by AAAI Conference on Artificial
Intelligence (AAAI-19
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