Can We Measure a COVID-19-Related Slowdown in Atmospheric CO₂ Growth? Sensitivity of Total Carbon Column Observations

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing projected annual CO2 emission reductions up to −8% for 2020. This approximately matches the reductions required year on year to fulfill the Paris agreement. We pursue the question whether related atmospheric concentration changes may be detected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and brought into agreement with bottom-up emission-reduction estimates. We present a mathematical framework to derive annual growth rates from observed column-averaged carbon dioxide (XCO2) including uncertainties. The min–max range of TCCON growth rates for 2012–2019 was [2.00, 3.27] ppm/yr with a largest one-year increase of 1.07 ppm/yr for 2015/16 caused by El Niño. Uncertainties are 0.38 [0.28, 0.44] ppm/yr limited by synoptic variability, including a 0.05 ppm/yr contribution from single-measurement precision. TCCON growth rates are linked to a UK Met Office forecast of a COVID-19-related reduction of −0.32 ppm yr−2 in 2020 for Mauna Loa. The separation of TCCON-measured growth rates vs. the reference forecast (without COVID-19) is discussed in terms of detection delay. A 0.6 [0.4, 0.7]-yr delay is caused by the impact of synoptic variability on XCO2, including a ≈1-month contribution from single-measurement precision. A hindrance for the detection of the COVID-19-related growth rate reduction in 2020 is the ±0.57 ppm/yr uncertainty for the forecasted reference case (without COVID-19). Only assuming the ongoing growth rate reductions increasing year-on-year by −0.32 ppm yr−2 would allow a discrimination of TCCON measurements vs. the unperturbed forecast and its uncertainty—with a 2.4 [2.2, 2.5]-yr delay. Using no forecast but the max–min range of the TCCON-observed growth rates for discrimination only leads to a factor ≈2 longer delay. Therefore, the forecast uncertainties for annual growth rates must be reduced. This requires improved terrestrial ecosystem models and ocean observations to better quantify the land and ocean sinks dominating interannual variability

Comparison of Continuous In-Situ CO2 Measurements with Co-Located Column-Averaged XCO2 TCCON/Satellite Observations and CarbonTracker Model Over the Zugspitze Region

Atmospheric CO2 measurements are important in understanding the global carbon cycle and in studying local sources and sinks. Ground and satellite-based measurements provide information on different temporal and spatial scales. However, the compatibility of such measurements at single sites is still underexplored, and the applicability of consistent data processing routines remains a challenge. In this study, we present an inter-comparison among representative surface and column-averaged CO2 records derived from continuous in-situ measurements, ground-based Fourier transform infrared measurements, satellite measurements, and modeled results over the Mount Zugspitze region of Germany. The mean annual growth rates agree well with around 2.2 ppm yr−1 over a 17-year period (2002–2018), while the mean seasonal amplitudes show distinct differences (surface: 11.7 ppm/column-averaged: 6.6 ppm) due to differing air masses. We were able to demonstrate that, by using consistent data processing routines with proper data retrieval and gap interpolation algorithms, the trend and seasonality can be well extracted from all measurement data sets