Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

A Review of Fault Diagnosing Methods in Power Transmission Systems

Transient stability is important in power systems. Disturbances like faults need to be segregated to restore transient stability. A comprehensive review of fault diagnosing methods in the power transmission system is presented in this paper. Typically, voltage and current samples are deployed for analysis. Three tasks/topics; fault detection, classification, and location are presented separately to convey a more logical and comprehensive understanding of the concepts. Feature extractions, transformations with dimensionality reduction methods are discussed. Fault classification and location techniques largely use artificial intelligence (AI) and signal processing methods. After the discussion of overall methods and concepts, advancements and future aspects are discussed. Generalized strengths and weaknesses of different AI and machine learning-based algorithms are assessed. A comparison of different fault detection, classification, and location methods is also presented considering features, inputs, complexity, system used and results. This paper may serve as a guideline for the researchers to understand different methods and techniques in this field

Comparative performance of some popular ANN algorithms on benchmark and function approximation problems

We report an inter-comparison of some popular algorithms within the artificial neural network domain (viz., Local search algorithms, global search algorithms, higher order algorithms and the hybrid algorithms) by applying them to the standard benchmarking problems like the IRIS data, XOR/N-Bit parity and Two Spiral. Apart from giving a brief description of these algorithms, the results obtained for the above benchmark problems are presented in the paper. The results suggest that while Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm yields the lowest RMS error for the N-bit Parity and the Two Spiral problems, Higher Order Neurons algorithm gives the best results for the IRIS data problem. The best results for the XOR problem are obtained with the Neuro Fuzzy algorithm. The above algorithms were also applied for solving several regression problems such as cos(x) and a few special functions like the Gamma function, the complimentary Error function and the upper tail cumulative $\chi^2$-distribution function. The results of these regression problems indicate that, among all the ANN algorithms used in the present study, Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm yields the best results. Keeping in view the highly non-linear behaviour and the wide dynamic range of these functions, it is suggested that these functions can be also considered as standard benchmark problems for function approximation using artificial neural networks.Comment: 18 pages 5 figures. Accepted in Pramana- Journal of Physic

Bacteria classification using Cyranose 320 electronic nose

Background An electronic nose (e-nose), the Cyrano Sciences' Cyranose 320, comprising an array of thirty-two polymer carbon black composite sensors has been used to identify six species of bacteria responsible for eye infections when present at a range of concentrations in saline solutions. Readings were taken from the headspace of the samples by manually introducing the portable e-nose system into a sterile glass containing a fixed volume of bacteria in suspension. Gathered data were a very complex mixture of different chemical compounds. Method Linear Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method was able to classify four classes of bacteria out of six classes though in reality other two classes were not better evident from PCA analysis and we got 74% classification accuracy from PCA. An innovative data clustering approach was investigated for these bacteria data by combining the 3-dimensional scatter plot, Fuzzy C Means (FCM) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) network. Using these three data clustering algorithms simultaneously better 'classification' of six eye bacteria classes were represented. Then three supervised classifiers, namely Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Probabilistic Neural network (PNN) and Radial basis function network (RBF), were used to classify the six bacteria classes. Results A [6 × 1] SOM network gave 96% accuracy for bacteria classification which was best accuracy. A comparative evaluation of the classifiers was conducted for this application. The best results suggest that we are able to predict six classes of bacteria with up to 98% accuracy with the application of the RBF network. Conclusion This type of bacteria data analysis and feature extraction is very difficult. But we can conclude that this combined use of three nonlinear methods can solve the feature extraction problem with very complex data and enhance the performance of Cyranose 320

SELECTING NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURE FOR INVESTMENT PROFITABILITY PREDICTIONS

After production and operations, finance and investments are one of the most frequent areas of neural network applications in business. The lack of standardized paradigms that can determine the efficiency of certain NN architectures in a particular problem domain is still present. The selection of NN architecture needs to take into consideration the type of the problem, the nature of the data in the model, as well as some strategies based on result comparison. The paper describes previous research in that area and suggests a forward strategy for selecting best NN algorithm and structure. Since the strategy includes both parameter-based and variable-based testings, it can be used for selecting NN architectures as well as for extracting models. The backpropagation, radialbasis, modular, LVQ and probabilistic neural network algorithms were used on two independent sets: stock market and credit scoring data. The results show that neural networks give better accuracy comparing to multiple regression and logistic regression models. Since it is model-independant, the strategy can be used by researchers and professionals in other areas of application

Radial Basis Function Neural Networks : A Review

Radial Basis Function neural networks (RBFNNs) represent an attractive alternative to other neural network models. One reason is that they form a unifying link between function approximation, regularization, noisy interpolation, classification and density estimation. It is also the case that training RBF neural networks is faster than training multi-layer perceptron networks. RBFNN learning is usually split into an unsupervised part, where center and widths of the Gaussian basis functions are set, and a linear supervised part for weight computation. This paper reviews various learning methods for determining centers, widths, and synaptic weights of RBFNN. In addition, we will point to some applications of RBFNN in various fields. In the end, we name software that can be used for implementing RBFNNs