A Neural Network for Collaborative Forecasting

As the supply chain activities’ backbone, demand forecasting must be accurate. This paper proposes an artificial neural network forecasting model, which integrates and synchronizes shared information, such as sales or consumption rate among different partners, to improve the forecasting’s accuracy. This information sharing is part of the collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (CPFR) model, which is a supply chain model aiming to enhance the supply chain’s efficiency by jointly planning and forecasting between two or more supply chain partners that will be used as the base for production and replenishment activities. The model is validated using a tuna product sales data, and the combination of individual forecasts resulted in better demand forecasting accuracy for the supply chain. This improvement will lead to reduced costs associated with the forecast’s overestimation or underestimation

Probabilistic solar wind forecasting using large ensembles of near-Sun conditions with a simple one-dimensional “upwind” scheme

Long lead-time space-weather forecasting requires accurate prediction of the near-Earth solar wind. The current state-of-the-art uses a coronal model to extrapolate the observed photospheric magnetic field to the upper corona, where it is related to solar wind speed through empirical relations. These near-Sun solar wind and magnetic field conditions provide the inner boundary condition to three-dimensional numerical magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere out to 1 AU. This physics-based approach can capture dynamic processes within the solar wind, which affect the resulting conditions in near-Earth space. However, this deterministic approach lacks a quantification of forecast uncertainty. Here, we describe a complementary method to exploit the near-Sun solar-wind information produced by coronal models and provide a quantitative estimate of forecast uncertainty. By sampling the near-Sun solar wind speed at a range of latitudes about the sub-Earth point, we produce a large ensemble (N = 576) of time series at the base of the Sun-Earth line. Propagating these conditions to Earth by a three-dimensional MHD model would be computationally prohibitive, thus a computationally-efficient one-dimensional “upwind” scheme is used. The variance in the resulting near-Earth solar wind speed ensemble is shown to provide an accurate measure of the forecast uncertainty. Applying this technique over 1996-2016, the upwind ensemble is found to provide a more “actionable” forecast than a single deterministic forecast; potential economic value is increased for all operational scenarios, but particularly when false alarms are important (i.e., where the cost of taking mitigating action is relatively large)