Stigmergy-based modeling to discover urban activity patterns from positioning data

Positioning data offer a remarkable source of information to analyze crowds urban dynamics. However, discovering urban activity patterns from the emergent behavior of crowds involves complex system modeling. An alternative approach is to adopt computational techniques belonging to the emergent paradigm, which enables self-organization of data and allows adaptive analysis. Specifically, our approach is based on stigmergy. By using stigmergy each sample position is associated with a digital pheromone deposit, which progressively evaporates and aggregates with other deposits according to their spatiotemporal proximity. Based on this principle, we exploit positioning data to identify high density areas (hotspots) and characterize their activity over time. This characterization allows the comparison of dynamics occurring in different days, providing a similarity measure exploitable by clustering techniques. Thus, we cluster days according to their activity behavior, discovering unexpected urban activity patterns. As a case study, we analyze taxi traces in New York City during 2015

A stigmergy-based analysis of city hotspots to discover trends and anomalies in urban transportation usage

A key aspect of a sustainable urban transportation system is the effectiveness of transportation policies. To be effective, a policy has to consider a broad range of elements, such as pollution emission, traffic flow, and human mobility. Due to the complexity and variability of these elements in the urban area, to produce effective policies remains a very challenging task. With the introduction of the smart city paradigm, a widely available amount of data can be generated in the urban spaces. Such data can be a fundamental source of knowledge to improve policies because they can reflect the sustainability issues underlying the city. In this context, we propose an approach to exploit urban positioning data based on stigmergy, a bio-inspired mechanism providing scalar and temporal aggregation of samples. By employing stigmergy, samples in proximity with each other are aggregated into a functional structure called trail. The trail summarizes relevant dynamics in data and allows matching them, providing a measure of their similarity. Moreover, this mechanism can be specialized to unfold specific dynamics. Specifically, we identify high-density urban areas (i.e hotspots), analyze their activity over time, and unfold anomalies. Moreover, by matching activity patterns, a continuous measure of the dissimilarity with respect to the typical activity pattern is provided. This measure can be used by policy makers to evaluate the effect of policies and change them dynamically. As a case study, we analyze taxi trip data gathered in Manhattan from 2013 to 2015.Comment: Preprin

Adapted K-Nearest Neighbors for Detecting Anomalies on Spatio–Temporal Traffic Flow

Outlier detection is an extensive research area, which has been intensively studied in several domains such as biological sciences, medical diagnosis, surveillance, and traffic anomaly detection. This paper explores advances in the outlier detection area by finding anomalies in spatio-temporal urban traffic flow. It proposes a new approach by considering the distribution of the flows in a given time interval. The flow distribution probability (FDP) databases are first constructed from the traffic flows by considering both spatial and temporal information. The outlier detection mechanism is then applied to the coming flow distribution probabilities, the inliers are stored to enrich the FDP databases, while the outliers are excluded from the FDP databases. Moreover, a k-nearest neighbor for distance-based outlier detection is investigated and adopted for FDP outlier detection. To validate the proposed framework, real data from Odense traffic flow case are evaluated at ten locations. The results reveal that the proposed framework is able to detect the real distribution of flow outliers. Another experiment has been carried out on Beijing data, the results show that our approach outperforms the baseline algorithms for high-urban traffic flow

Simulation of urban system evolution in a synergetic modelling framework. The case of Attica, Greece

Spatial analysis and evolution simulation of such complex and dynamic systems as modern urban areas could greatly benefit from the synergy of methods and techniques that constitute the core of the fields of Information Technology and Artificial Intelligence. Additionally, if during the decision making process, a consistent methodology is applied and assisted by a user-friendly interface, premium and pragmatic solution strategies can be tested and evaluated. In such a framework, this paper presents both a prototype Decision Support System and a consorting spatio-temporal methodology, for modelling urban growth. Its main focus is on the analysis of current trends, the detection of the factors that mostly affect the evolution process and the examination of user-defined hypotheses regarding future states of the problem environment. According to the approach, a neural network model is formulated for a specific time intervals and each different group of spatial units, mainly based to the degree of their contiguity and spatial interaction. At this stage, fuzzy logic provides a precise image of spatial entities, further exploited in a twofold way. First, for the analysis and interpretation of up-to-date urban evolution and second, for the formulation of a robust spatial simulation model. It should be stressed, however, that the neural network model is not solely used to define future urban images, but also to evaluate the degree of influence that each variable as a significant of problem parameter, contributes to the final result. Thus, the formulation and the analysis of alternative planning scenarios are assisted. Both the proposed methodological framework and the prototype Decision Support System are utilized during the study of Attica, Greece?s principal prefecture and the definition of a twenty-year forecast. The variables considered and projected refer to population data derived from the 1961-1991 censuses and building uses aggregated in ten different categories. The final results are visualised through thematic maps in a GIS environment. Finally, the performance of the methodology is evaluated as well as directions for further improvements and enhancements are outlined. Keywords: Computational geography, Spatial modelling, Neural network models, Fuzzy logic.