From Anarchy to Confederacy: A Theory of International Politics

This dissertation advances a novel systemic theory of international politics. Today, the most salient feature of the international system is not the presence of multiple opposing great power poles, but rather, an enduring leading power commercial confederacy. The Western order develops out of a US led hegemonic subsystem following World War II and steadily deepens and expands. Chapter 2 of the dissertation argues that this Western order is a great deal more enduring than previously thought, precisely because cohesion rests on the interactive combination of multiple unifying bonds. This order is now a semi-permanent, path-dependent, and remarkably resilient feature of the international political landscape. The commercial confederacy is a leading power configuration that now conditions the behavior, to varying degrees, of every state in the system. Bonding, or commercial and institutional integration, is now the dominant behavior induced by the system. To be competitive, states are led to pursue distinct politico-economic strategies of integration. Chapter 3 develops a novel systemic theory of international politics. Chapter 4 discusses how systemic theory should be tested and outlines a preliminary research program. Chapter 5 is plausibility probe of China's grand-strategic behavior in the reform era. As an outsider, China has responded to the prevailing systemic pressures by pursuing a bonding strategy. That is, China has pursued political and economic strategies of integration

Material Realism: A Systems Theory of International Politics

Traditionally power has played a dominant role in all realist theories of international politics and little if any room was left for actor agency. Systemic outcomes were a function of system structure. System structure was the result of the positioning of states in the system according to their power. Conflict resulted from system structure. Actor agency was not a relevant consideration because system structure was deterministic. This paper presents a new theorization of realism that it calls material realism. Material realism hypothesizes globalization as a second independent variable alongside power. A longitudinal network model using all conflict events since 1992 is constructed that hypothesizes globalization as acting to mitigate the effect of power and reduce the probability of conflict initiation. Because globalization is at root a system of resource allocation, material realism theorizes that as resources are more adequately allocated globally, scarcity is reduced. As scarcity is reduced, man (and states) fear less for their survival. When survival is not at risk the probability of conflict abates because the cost-to-benefit ratio swings decisively against conflict initiation. By using a longitudinal network model, actor agency is accounted for because conflict events are not assumed to be independent as is the case with more traditional models like logit or OLS regression. Additionally, the use of a longitudinal network model allows for the isolation of the impact of system structure versus actor behavior, thus thwarting charges of reductionism. By using a longitudinal network model to characterize the system of international politics, a true systems theory of international politics is presented. Previous attempts at presenting a systems theory of international politics fell short because they did not account for the impact of actor behavior on system behavior and vice-a-versa. Material realism represents a paradigm shift for realist thinkers because it opens the door for explicit consideration of the effect of actor agency and the undeniable effects of globalization on international political outcomes, especially conflict initiation. Ultimately the conclusion is reached that technology and innovation must continue to advance in order to achieve continuing reductions in conflict initiation over the long term

Methodological perspectives and research implications

"#1994"--handwritten on coverOverall statement of responsibility for the multi-volume set reads: Hayward R. Alker, Jr., Lincoln P. Bloomfield and Nazli Choucri"November 1974."Includes bibliographical referencesSupported by the Dept. of State 1722-32008

Relative Gains Problem and Case Studies of Economic Cooperation in East Asia

Relative gains problem basically means unequal cooperative payoffs disproportionately favoring partners. With the relative gains problem widely accepted as a serious impediment to international cooperation, some scholars have theoretically argued or modeled several conditions that are most likely to foster a state\u27s sensitivity to relative gains and thus substantially affect the prospects for cooperation. But little empirical work has been done to date. The central objective of this dissertation is to test whether those theoretical propositions can be supported by empirical evidence. For this purpose, we have deducted three hypotheses: (1) If a state faces military threat and zero-sum political competition from another state, then it will be extremely sensitive to relative gains, thereby restricting economic interactions favoring the rival state; (2) If a state believes that its partner is a rising power in a changed system, then it will show increasing sensitivity to relative gains and seek for its bargaining power; and (3) If a cooperative arrangement is likely to put a state in a competitive disadvantage and hurt its long-term growth, then it will be acutely sensitive to such relative losses and will not cooperate. The hypothesized causal relationships are tested via three cases: Taiwan\u27s restriction of its economic interactions with China since 1979, Japan\u27s reduction of its ODA commitment to China in the fourth loan package, and China\u27s rejection of the flying geese model since the mid-1980s. The hypotheses in both Taiwan and ODA cases are strongly supported by the evidence, while the evidence for actual policy outcomes (i.e., non-cooperation) in the flying geese model is mixed. Therefore, the relative gains approach has a formal deductive logic and parsimonious power in analyzing cooperation barriers in East Asia. The study has also three policy implications. First, largely because of defensive cooperation, relative gains concerns do not always jeopardize or eliminate cooperation. Second, even high relative gains concerns may not be fully reflected in policy outcomes, since the extent to which they are ultimately translated into policy is constrained by many other factors. And third, due to strong relative gains concerns, no formal economic bloc in East Asia could be created in the near future, and the continuation of US military presence in the region is highly necessary

The New Silk Roads' Impact on the Persian Gulf Region. Contextualizing China's Economic Ties and Diplomatic Relations with the Gulf States.

China’s rise and Middle Eastern insecurity are two dominating themes in international relations today. Yet, their relevance for each other is less discussed. The most important connection is China’s and the Persian Gulf region’s new economic interdependence – a part of Asia’s so-called New Silk Roads. Energy and non-energy trade between the Gulf and China has grown fast and is increasingly accompanied by investment flows in both directions, as well as closer diplomatic relations. The same has happened with regards to the ties between the Gulf and other Asian countries, like India. Nevertheless, it is still the US that underwrites basic regional stability with its military presence. So far, Asian countries, China included, have thus benefited by fee-riding on it. However, as China’s power increases and US appetite for Middle Eastern engagement decreases, it needs to be asked whether China (or anyone else) will one day inherit the American mantle and geo-politically dominate the Gulf. This PhD thesis seeks to answer that question via the help of three types of contextualization: Firstly, the use of the two most influential, but antagonistic IR theories – neo-liberal institutionalism and neo-realism – tests which is the more accurate for China’s Gulf role. It ultimately argues in favour of a neo-neo synthesis around the concept of regional hegemonic stablity. Secondly, a brief recap of historical analogies regarding previous external powers and their rivalries in the Gulf is provided. These range from early-modern actors, over the British Raj and to the American hegemon. Thirdly, the inter-regional context is provided by briefly outlining the Gulf states' relations with China's Asian competitors, Japan, South Korea, and India. In the second part of the thesis, China's New Silk Roads across Eurasia and the Gulf are analysed via a regional overview and then via two case studies, on China-Saudi Arabia relations and China-United Arab Emirates relations. The conclusion brings all these various threads together in order to undertake a comparison between current American, Chinese (and partly Indian) capabilities, and their future opportunities and risks. This is done via theoretical assessments as well as historical contextualization and discussion of useful analogies. Why is this research question important? On the one hand, the world economy’s hydrocarbon-dependence continues to rely on the Gulf’s huge reserves. On the other, the region offers a long history of geo-strategic centrality to world affairs and will likely also help determine into which direction global power flows in the 21st century

Rights of Concrete Others: Ethics of Concrete Others, Social Individuality, and Social Multiculturalism

A globalizing world is replete with the vulnerable, who are experiencing economic poverty, medical maltreatment, political persecution, and/or cultural misrecognition. The vulnerable are under systematic oppression and domination. Although the wealth of humankind increases continuously, many are excluded from any benefit of this increased wealth. While human beings have achieved significant progress in medical technology, uncountable numbers of people are exposed to a shortage of appropriate medical care. Despite continued expansion of democracy around the globe, the powerless majority and minorities are experiencing ignorance of their differences, culturally and/or politically. This dissertation searches for a viable human rights scheme that will effectively address the systematic oppression and domination of the vulnerable. By addressing oppression and domination of the vulnerable, I focus on overcoming several dichotomies: a dichotomy between transcendence and immanence within human beings, a dichotomy between equality and difference among human beings, and a dichotomy between individual differences and group differences. Those dichotomies have been detrimental to addressing systematic oppression and domination of the vulnerable. With relation to the dichotomy between transcendence and immanence within human beings, I frame the vulnerable as concrete others who have both transcendental dimensions and immanent dimensions. In terms of the dichotomy between equality and difference, my proposal is equality that substantially promotes difference, that is, capability equality and least-gap equality. With regard to the dichotomy between individual difference and group difference, my proposal is multiculturalism based on social individuality. These proposals for overcoming aforementioned dichotomies converge on social multiculturalism. I have argued that equality between groups and equality within groups can best address oppression and domination of concrete others. Specifically, reconfigured basic income guarantee, which includes basic income, public education, public healthcare, and linguistic diversity, is a concrete form of equality within groups that is conducive to promoting equality between groups. Therefore, I think that social multiculturalism based on the reconfigured basic income guarantee is a new, viable version of addressing oppression and domination of the vulnerable