Regional variation in perceptions about climate change.

A 2007 survey covering rural areas in nine US states provides data on perceived local impacts of climate change. Perceptions vary from region to region, with a pattern suggesting links to real climate specifically to winter warming in snow country. A multivariate analysis using mixed-effects ordered logit regression confirms a significant perception-temperature relationship, net of individual background and ideological characteristics, and of regional variations. These findings invite more detailed research

Variation of Oriental Oak (Quercus variabilis) Leaf δ13C across Temperate and Subtropical China: Spatial Patterns and Sensitivity to Precipitation

The concentration of the carbon-13 isotope (leaf δ13C) in leaves is negatively correlated with the mean annual precipitation (MAP) atlarge geographical scales. In this paper, we explain the spatial pattern of leaf δ13C variation for deciduous oriental oak (Quercus variabilis Bl.) across temperate and subtropical biomes and its sensitivity to climate factors such as MAP. There was a 6‰ variation in the leaf δ13C values of oak with a significant positive correlation with latitude and negative correlations with the mean annual temperature (MAT) and MAP. There was no correlation between leaf δ13C and altitude or longitude. Stepwise multiple regression analyses showed that leaf δ13C decreased 0.3‰ per 100 mm increase in MAP. MAP alone could account for 68% of the observed variation in leaf δ13C. These results can be used to improve predictions for plant responses to climate change and particularly lower rainfall

Adaptation to climate in widespread eucalypt species

AbstractThe long term success of revegetation efforts will depend upon the planted species’ resilience to climate change. Many widespread species grow across a range of climatic conditions and, thus, may possess adaptations that could be utilised to improve climate resilience of restored ecosystems. Species can achieve a widespread distribution via two main mechanisms; (1) by diverging into a series of specialised populations, or (2) through high phenotypic plasticity. The extent to which populations are specialised or plastic in response to climate will determine the seed-sourcing strategy required for optimal restoration outcomes under a changing climate. We examined genetic divergence and phenotypic plasticity in two widespread Eucalyptus species (E. tricarpa in southeastern Australia, E. salubris in southwestern Australia), to determine the nature of adaptation to climate in these species, and whether genomic screening might be a useful tool to assess climate adaptation.We examined nine populations of each species across climate gradients and, for E. tricarpa, trees originating from the same populations were also studied in two common garden field trials. We characterised responses in functional traits relevant to climate adaptation, including leaf size, thickness, tissue density, and carbon isotope ratio (δ13C). Genetic variation was assessed with genome scans using DArTseq markers, and ‘outlier markers’ were identified as being linked to regions of the genome that are potentially under selection.Evidence of both plastic response and genetic specialisation for climate was found in both species, indicating that widespread eucalypts utilise a combination of both mechanisms for adaptation to spatial variation in climate. The E. tricarpa common garden data suggested high plasticity in most of the measured functional traits, and the extent of plasticity in some traits (e.g. leaf size and thickness) varied among provenances, suggesting genetic variation for plasticity itself. In E. salubris, most functional traits showed little variation across the gradient. However, water use efficiency appeared highly plastic, as determined from the strong correlation between δ13C and recent precipitation (R2 = 0.83). Both species showed spatial partitioning of genetic variation across the gradient, and data for E. salubris revealed two distinct lineages. The genome scans yielded 16,122 DArTseq markers for “Lineage 1” of E. salubris, of which 0.1% were potentially adaptive ‘outlier loci’, and 6,544 markers for E. tricarpa, of which 2.6% were outliers. Canonical Analysis of Principal Coordinates (CAP) analysis showed that the outlier markers were correlated with climatic variables, and some were also strongly correlated with functional traits. An ‘Aridity Index’ was also developed from the CAP analysis that has potential as a tool for environmental planners to use for matching seed sources to target climates.Widespread eucalypts are likely to possess a capacity to respond plastically to a changing climate to some extent, but selection of seed sources to match projected climate changes may confer even greater climate resilience. Further study of the mechanisms of plasticity in response to climate may improve our ability to assess climate adaptation in other species, and to determine optimal strategies for ecosystem restoration and management under climate change

Modeling agricultural production risk and the adaptation to climate change

A model that integrates biophysical simulations in an economic model is used to analyze the impact of climate change on crop production. The biophysical model simulates future plant-management-climate relationships and the economic model simulates farmers' adaptation actions to climate change using a nonlinear programming approach. Beyond the development of average yields, special attention is devoted to the impact of climate change on crop yield variability. This study analyzes corn and winter wheat production on the Swiss Plateau with respect to climate change scenarios that cover the period of 2030-2050. In our model, adaptation options such as changes in seeding dates, changes in production intensity and the adoption of irrigation farming are considered. Different scenarios of climate change, output prices and farmers' risk aversion are applied in order to show the sensitivity of adaptation strategies and crop yields, respectively, on these factors. Our results show that adaptation actions, yields and yield variation highly depend on both climate change and output prices. The sensitivity of adaptation options and yields, respectively, to prices and risk aversion for winter wheat is much lower than for corn because of different growing periods. In general, our results show that both corn and winter wheat yields increase in the next decades. In contrast to other studies, we find the coefficient of variation of corn and winter wheat yields to decrease. We therefore conclude that simple adaptation measures are sufficient to take advantage of climate change in Swiss crop farming.climate change, robust estimation, yield variation, corn, winter wheat, market liberalization, Environmental Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

Translational regulation contributes to the elevated CO2 response in two Solanum species.

Understanding the impact of elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) in global agriculture is important given climate change projections. Breeding climate-resilient crops depends on genetic variation within naturally varying populations. The effect of genetic variation in response to eCO2 is poorly understood, especially in crop species. We describe the different ways in which Solanum lycopersicum and its wild relative S. pennellii respond to eCO2 , from cell anatomy, to the transcriptome, and metabolome. We further validate the importance of translational regulation as a potential mechanism for plants to adaptively respond to rising levels of atmospheric CO2

Multi-physics ensemble snow modelling in the western Himalaya

Combining multiple data sources with multi-physics simulation frameworks offers new potential to extend snow model inter-comparison efforts to the Himalaya. As such, this study evaluates the sensitivity of simulated regional snow cover and runoff dynamics to different snowpack process representations. The evaluation is based on a spatially distributed version of the Factorial Snowpack Model (FSM) set up for the Astore catchment in the upper Indus basin. The FSM multi-physics model was driven by climate fields from the High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR) dynamical downscaling product. Ensemble performance was evaluated primarily using MODIS remote sensing of snow-covered area, albedo and land surface temperature. In line with previous snow model inter-comparisons, no single FSM configuration performs best in all of the years simulated. However, the results demonstrate that performance variation in this case is at least partly related to inaccuracies in the sequencing of inter-annual variation in HAR climate inputs, not just FSM model limitations. Ensemble spread is dominated by interactions between parameterisations of albedo, snowpack hydrology and atmospheric stability effects on turbulent heat fluxes. The resulting ensemble structure is similar in different years, which leads to systematic divergence in ablation and mass balance at high elevations. While ensemble spread and errors are notably lower when viewed as anomalies, FSM configurations show important differences in their absolute sensitivity to climate variation. Comparison with observations suggests that a subset of the ensemble should be retained for climate change projections, namely those members including prognostic albedo and liquid water retention, refreezing and drainage processes

Climate tolerances and trait choices shape continental patterns of urban tree biodiversity

Aim: We propose and test a climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis of urban macroecological variation in which strong filtering associated with low winter temperatures restricts urban biodiversity while weak filtering associated with warmer temperatures and irrigation allows dispersal of species from a global source pool, thereby increasing urban biodiversity. Location: Twenty cities across the USA and Canada. Methods: We examined variation in tree community taxonomic diversity, origins and production of an aesthetic ecosystem service trait in a cross-section of urban field surveys. We correlated urban tree community composition indicators with a key climate restriction, namely mean minimum winter temperature, and evaluated alternative possible drivers: precipitation, summer maximum temperature, population size and the percentage of adults with a college education. Results: Species accumulation curves differed substantially among cities, with observed richness varying from 22 to 122 species. Similarities in tree communities decreased exponentially with increases in climatic differences. Ordination of tree communities showed strong separation among cities with component axes correlated with minimum winter temperature and annual precipitation. Variation among urban tree communities in richness, origins and the provisioning of an aesthetic ecosystem service were all correlated with minimum winter temperature. Main conclusions: The urban climate tolerance and trait choice hypothesis provides a coherent mechanism to explain the large variation among urban tree communities resulting from an interacting environment, species and human decisions. Reconciling the feedbacks between human decision making and biophysical limitations provides a foundation for an urban ecological theory that can better understand and predict the dynamics of other linked biotic communities, associated ecosystem dynamics and resulting services provided to urban residents

Uncertainty Quantification of Future Design Rainfall Depths in Korea

One of the most common ways to investigate changes in future rainfall extremes is to use future rainfall data simulated by climate models with climate change scenarios. However, the projected future design rainfall intensity varies greatly depending on which climate model is applied. In this study, future rainfall Intensity???Duration???Frequency (IDF) curves are projected using various combinations of climate models. Future Ensemble Average (FEA) is calculated using a total of 16 design rainfall intensity ensembles, and uncertainty of FEA is quantified using the coefficient of variation of ensembles. The FEA and its uncertainty vary widely depending on how the climate model combination is constructed, and the uncertainty of the FEA depends heavily on the inclusion of specific climate model combinations at each site. In other words, we found that unconditionally using many ensemble members did not help to reduce the uncertainty of future IDF curves. Finally, a method for constructing ensemble members that reduces the uncertainty of future IDF curves is proposed, which will contribute to minimizing confusion among policy makers in developing climate change adaptation policies

Natural variation in abiotic stress responsive gene expression and local adaptation to climate in Arabidopsis thaliana.

Gene expression varies widely in natural populations, yet the proximate and ultimate causes of this variation are poorly known. Understanding how variation in gene expression affects abiotic stress tolerance, fitness, and adaptation is central to the field of evolutionary genetics. We tested the hypothesis that genes with natural genetic variation in their expression responses to abiotic stress are likely to be involved in local adaptation to climate in Arabidopsis thaliana. Specifically, we compared genes with consistent expression responses to environmental stress (expression stress responsive, "eSR") to genes with genetically variable responses to abiotic stress (expression genotype-by-environment interaction, "eGEI"). We found that on average genes that exhibited eGEI in response to drought or cold had greater polymorphism in promoter regions and stronger associations with climate than those of eSR genes or genomic controls. We also found that transcription factor binding sites known to respond to environmental stressors, especially abscisic acid responsive elements, showed significantly higher polymorphism in drought eGEI genes in comparison to eSR genes. By contrast, eSR genes tended to exhibit relatively greater pairwise haplotype sharing, lower promoter diversity, and fewer nonsynonymous polymorphisms, suggesting purifying selection or selective sweeps. Our results indicate that cis-regulatory evolution and genetic variation in stress responsive gene expression may be important mechanisms of local adaptation to climatic selective gradients