IMPUTING OR SMOOTHING? MODELLING THE MISSING ONLINE CUSTOMER JOURNEY TRANSITIONS FOR PURCHASE PREDICTION

Online customer journeys are at the core of e-commerce systems and it is therefore important to model and understand this online customer behaviour. Clickstream data from online journeys can be modelled using Markov Chains. This study investigates two different approaches to handle missing transition probabilities in constructing Markov Chain models for purchase prediction. Imputing the transition probabilities by using Chapman-Kolmogorov (CK) equation addresses this issue and achieves high prediction accuracy by approximating them with one step ahead probability. However, it comes with the problem of a high computational burden and some probabilities remaining zero after imputation. An alternative approach is to smooth the transition probabilities using Bayesian techniques. This ensures non-zero probabilities but this approach has been criticized for not being as accurate as the CK method, though this has not been fully evaluated in the literature using realistic, commercial data. We compare the accuracy of the purchase prediction of the CK and Bayesian methods, and evaluate them based on commercial web server data from a major European airline

Predicting Sequences of Traversed Nodes in Graphs using Network Models with Multiple Higher Orders

We propose a novel sequence prediction method for sequential data capturing node traversals in graphs. Our method builds on a statistical modelling framework that combines multiple higher-order network models into a single multi-order model. We develop a technique to fit such multi-order models in empirical sequential data and to select the optimal maximum order. Our framework facilitates both next-element and full sequence prediction given a sequence-prefix of any length. We evaluate our model based on six empirical data sets containing sequences from website navigation as well as public transport systems. The results show that our method out-performs state-of-the-art algorithms for next-element prediction. We further demonstrate the accuracy of our method during out-of-sample sequence prediction and validate that our method can scale to data sets with millions of sequences.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 2 table

Improving e-commerce product recommendation using semantic context and sequential historical purchases

Collaborative Filtering (CF)-based recommendation methods suffer from (i) sparsity (have low user–item interactions) and (ii) cold start (an item cannot be recommended if no ratings exist). Systems using clustering and pattern mining (frequent and sequential) with similarity measures between clicks and purchases for next-item recommendation cannot perform well when the matrix is sparse, due to rapid increase in number of items. Additionally, they suffer from: (i) lack of personalization: patterns are not targeted for a specific customer and (ii) lack of semantics among recommended items: they can only recommend items that exist as a result of a matching rule generated from frequent sequential purchase pattern(s). To better understand users’ preferences and to infer the inherent meaning of items, this paper proposes a method to explore semantic associations between items obtained by utilizing item (products’) metadata such as title, description and brand based on their semantic context (co-purchased and co-reviewed products). The semantics of these interactions will be obtained through distributional hypothesis, which learns an item’s representation by analyzing the context (neighborhood) in which it is used. The idea is that items co-occurring in a context are likely to be semantically similar to each other (e.g., items in a user purchase sequence). The semantics are then integrated into different phases of recommendation process such as (i) preprocessing, to learn associations between items, (ii) candidate generation, while mining sequential patterns and in collaborative filtering to select top-N neighbors and (iii) output (recommendation). Experiments performed on publically available E-commerce data set show that the proposed model performed well and reflected user preferences by recommending semantically similar and sequential products

IDEAS-1997-2021-Final-Programs

This document records the final program for each of the 26 meetings of the International Database and Engineering Application Symposium from 1997 through 2021. These meetings were organized in various locations on three continents. Most of the papers published during these years are in the digital libraries of IEEE(1997-2007) or ACM(2008-2021)