The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Global Risks 2014, Ninth Edition.

The Global Risks 2014 report highlights how global risks are not only interconnected but also have systemic impacts. To manage global risks effectively and build resilience to their impacts, better efforts are needed to understand, measure and foresee the evolution of interdependencies between risks, supplementing traditional risk-management tools with new concepts designed for uncertain environments. If global risks are not effectively addressed, their social, economic and political fallouts could be far-reaching, as exemplified by the continuing impacts of the financial crisis of 2007-2008

Global Cyber Intermediary Liability: A Legal & Cultural Strategy

This Article fills the gap in the debate on fighting cybercrime. It considers the role of intermediaries and the legal and cultural strategies that countries may adopt. Part II.A of this Article examines the critical role of intermediaries in cybercrime. It shows that the intermediaries’ active participation by facilitating the transmission of cybercrime traffic removes a significant barrier for individual perpetrators. Part II.B offers a brief overview of legal efforts to combat cybercrime, and examines the legal liability of intermediaries in both the civil and criminal context and in varying legal regimes with an emphasis on ISPs. Aside from some level of injunctive relief, intermediaries operate in a largely unregulated environment. Part III looks at what we can learn from other countries. The cleanest intermediary country, Finland, and the worst country, Lithuania, were selected in order to explore the causes for the differences between country performances. The section examines the remarkable distinctions between national cultures to explain differences in national cybercrime rates. Part III.A of this Article argues that the criminal code laws do not account for the difference in host and ISP performances between Finland and Lithuania. There are few differences in the codified laws pertaining to cybercrime between these countries. Instead, it is Finland’s cultural and business environments that appear to drive its cybercrime ranking. Part IV suggests reforms to shift a country’s culture to make it less prone to corruption. However, changing a culture takes time so Part IV also proposes a private law scheme in which intermediaries are unable to wave the “flag of immunity,” as they do now. The guiding philosophy for this proposal is that harmed parties should be permitted to recover damages directly from “bad” intermediaries

Cybersecurity: mapping the ethical terrain

This edited collection examines the ethical trade-offs involved in cybersecurity: between security and privacy; individual rights and the good of a society; and between the types of burdens placed on particular groups in order to protect others. Foreword Governments and society are increasingly reliant on cyber systems. Yet the more reliant we are upon cyber systems, the more vulnerable we are to serious harm should these systems be attacked or used in an attack. This problem of reliance and vulnerability is driving a concern with securing cyberspace. For example, a ‘cybersecurity’ team now forms part of the US Secret Service. Its job is to respond to cyber-attacks in specific environments such as elevators in a building that hosts politically vulnerable individuals, for example, state representatives. Cybersecurity aims to protect cyberinfrastructure from cyber-attacks; the concerning aspect of the threat from cyber-attack is the potential for serious harm that damage to cyber-infrastructure presents to resources and people. These types of threats to cybersecurity might simply target information and communication systems: a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack on a government website does not harm a website in any direct way, but prevents its normal use by stifling the ability of users to connect to the site. Alternatively, cyber-attacks might disrupt physical devices or resources, such as the Stuxnet virus, which caused the malfunction and destruction of Iranian nuclear centrifuges. Cyber-attacks might also enhance activities that are enabled through cyberspace, such as the use of online media by extremists to recruit members and promote radicalisation. Cyber-attacks are diverse: as a result, cybersecurity requires a comparable diversity of approaches. Cyber-attacks can have powerful impacts on people’s lives, and so—in liberal democratic societies at least—governments have a duty to ensure cybersecurity in order to protect the inhabitants within their own jurisdiction and, arguably, the people of other nations. But, as recent events following the revelations of Edward Snowden have demonstrated, there is a risk that the governmental pursuit of cybersecurity might overstep the mark and subvert fundamental privacy rights. Popular comment on these episodes advocates transparency of government processes, yet given that cybersecurity risks represent major challenges to national security, it is unlikely that simple transparency will suffice. Managing the risks of cybersecurity involves trade-offs: between security and privacy; individual rights and the good of a society; and types of burdens placed on particular groups in order to protect others. These trade-offs are often ethical trade-offs, involving questions of how we act, what values we should aim to promote, and what means of anticipating and responding to the risks are reasonably—and publicly—justifiable. This Occasional Paper (prepared for the National Security College) provides a brief conceptual analysis of cybersecurity, demonstrates the relevance of ethics to cybersecurity and outlines various ways in which to approach ethical decision-making when responding to cyber-attacks

Global Risks 2015, 10th Edition.

The 2015 edition of the Global Risks report completes a decade of highlighting the most significant long-term risks worldwide, drawing on the perspectives of experts and global decision-makers. Over that time, analysis has moved from risk identification to thinking through risk interconnections and the potentially cascading effects that result. Taking this effort one step further, this year's report underscores potential causes as well as solutions to global risks. Not only do we set out a view on 28 global risks in the report's traditional categories (economic, environmental, societal, geopolitical and technological) but also we consider the drivers of those risks in the form of 13 trends. In addition, we have selected initiatives for addressing significant challenges, which we hope will inspire collaboration among business, government and civil society communitie

Securing Critical Infrastructures

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South American Expert Roundtable : increasing adaptive governance capacity for coping with unintended side effects of digital transformation

This paper presents the main messages of a South American expert roundtable (ERT) on the unintended side effects (unseens) of digital transformation. The input of the ERT comprised 39 propositions from 20 experts representing 11 different perspectives. The two-day ERT discussed the main drivers and challenges as well as vulnerabilities or unseens and provided suggestions for: (i) the mechanisms underlying major unseens; (ii) understanding possible ways in which rebound effects of digital transformation may become the subject of overarching research in three main categories of impact: development factors, society, and individuals; and (iii) a set of potential action domains for transdisciplinary follow-up processes, including a case study in Brazil. A content analysis of the propositions and related mechanisms provided insights in the genesis of unseens by identifying 15 interrelated causal mechanisms related to critical issues/concerns. Additionally, a cluster analysis (CLA) was applied to structure the challenges and critical developments in South America. The discussion elaborated the genesis, dynamics, and impacts of (groups of) unseens such as the digital divide (that affects most countries that are not included in the development of digital business, management, production, etc. tools) or the challenge of restructuring small- and medium-sized enterprises (whose service is digitally substituted by digital devices). We identify specific issues and effects (for most South American countries) such as lack of governmental structure, challenging geographical structures (e.g., inclusion in high-performance transmission power), or the digital readiness of (wide parts) of society. One scientific contribution of the paper is related to the presented methodology that provides insights into the phenomena, the causal chains underlying “wanted/positive” and “unwanted/negative” effects, and the processes and mechanisms of societal changes caused by digitalization

Modeling of Advanced Threat Actors: Characterization, Categorization and Detection

Tesis por compendio[ES] La información y los sistemas que la tratan son un activo a proteger para personas, organizaciones e incluso países enteros. Nuestra dependencia en las tecnologías de la información es cada día mayor, por lo que su seguridad es clave para nuestro bienestar. Los beneficios que estas tecnologías nos proporcionan son incuestionables, pero su uso también introduce riesgos que ligados a nuestra creciente dependencia de las mismas es necesario mitigar. Los actores hostiles avanzados se categorizan principalmente en grupos criminales que buscan un beneficio económico y en países cuyo objetivo es obtener superioridad en ámbitos estratégicos como el comercial o el militar. Estos actores explotan las tecnologías, y en particular el ciberespacio, para lograr sus objetivos. La presente tesis doctoral realiza aportaciones significativas a la caracterización de los actores hostiles avanzados y a la detección de sus actividades. El análisis de sus características es básico no sólo para conocer a estos actores y sus operaciones, sino para facilitar el despliegue de contramedidas que incrementen nuestra seguridad. La detección de dichas operaciones es el primer paso necesario para neutralizarlas, y por tanto para minimizar su impacto. En el ámbito de la caracterización, este trabajo profundiza en el análisis de las tácticas y técnicas de los actores. Dicho análisis siempre es necesario para una correcta detección de las actividades hostiles en el ciberespacio, pero en el caso de los actores avanzados, desde grupos criminales hasta estados, es obligatorio: sus actividades son sigilosas, ya que el éxito de las mismas se basa, en la mayor parte de casos, en no ser detectados por la víctima. En el ámbito de la detección, este trabajo identifica y justifica los requisitos clave para poder establecer una capacidad adecuada frente a los actores hostiles avanzados. Adicionalmente, proporciona las tácticas que deben ser implementadas en los Centros de Operaciones de Seguridad para optimizar sus capacidades de detección y respuesta. Debemos destacar que estas tácticas, estructuradas en forma de kill-chain, permiten no sólo dicha optimización, sino también una aproximación homogénea y estructurada común para todos los centros defensivos. En mi opinión, una de las bases de mi trabajo debe ser la aplicabilidad de los resultados. Por este motivo, el análisis de tácticas y técnicas de los actores de la amenaza está alineado con el principal marco de trabajo público para dicho análisis, MITRE ATT&CK. Los resultados y propuestas de esta investigación pueden ser directamente incluidos en dicho marco, mejorando así la caracterización de los actores hostiles y de sus actividades en el ciberespacio. Adicionalmente, las propuestas para mejorar la detección de dichas actividades son de aplicación directa tanto en los Centros de Operaciones de Seguridad actuales como en las tecnologías de detección más comunes en la industria. De esta forma, este trabajo mejora de forma significativa las capacidades de análisis y detección actuales, y por tanto mejora a su vez la neutralización de operaciones hostiles. Estas capacidades incrementan la seguridad global de todo tipo de organizaciones y, en definitiva, de nuestra sociedad.[CA] La informació i els sistemas que la tracten són un actiu a protegir per a persones, organitzacions i fins i tot països sencers. La nostra dependència en les tecnologies de la informació es cada dia major, i per aixó la nostra seguretat és clau per al nostre benestar. Els beneficis que aquestes tecnologies ens proporcionen són inqüestionables, però el seu ús també introdueix riscos que, lligats a la nostra creixent dependència de les mateixes és necessari mitigar. Els actors hostils avançats es categoritzen principalment en grups criminals que busquen un benefici econòmic i en països el objectiu dels quals és obtindre superioritat en àmbits estratègics, com ara el comercial o el militar. Aquests actors exploten les tecnologies, i en particular el ciberespai, per a aconseguir els seus objectius. La present tesi doctoral realitza aportacions significatives a la caracterització dels actors hostils avançats i a la detecció de les seves activitats. L'anàlisi de les seves característiques és bàsic no solament per a conéixer a aquests actors i les seves operacions, sinó per a facilitar el desplegament de contramesures que incrementen la nostra seguretat. La detección de aquestes operacions és el primer pas necessari per a netralitzar-les, i per tant, per a minimitzar el seu impacte. En l'àmbit de la caracterització, aquest treball aprofundeix en l'anàlisi de lestàctiques i tècniques dels actors. Aquesta anàlisi sempre és necessària per a una correcta detecció de les activitats hostils en el ciberespai, però en el cas dels actors avançats, des de grups criminals fins a estats, és obligatòria: les seves activitats són sigiloses, ja que l'éxit de les mateixes es basa, en la major part de casos, en no ser detectats per la víctima. En l'àmbit de la detecció, aquest treball identifica i justifica els requisits clau per a poder establir una capacitat adequada front als actors hostils avançats. Adicionalment, proporciona les tàctiques que han de ser implementades en els Centres d'Operacions de Seguretat per a optimitzar les seves capacitats de detecció i resposta. Hem de destacar que aquestes tàctiques, estructurades en forma de kill-chain, permiteixen no només aquesta optimització, sinò tambié una aproximació homogènia i estructurada comú per a tots els centres defensius. En la meva opinio, una de les bases del meu treball ha de ser l'aplicabilitat dels resultats. Per això, l'anàlisi de táctiques i tècniques dels actors de l'amenaça està alineada amb el principal marc públic de treball per a aquesta anàlisi, MITRE ATT&CK. Els resultats i propostes d'aquesta investigació poden ser directament inclosos en aquest marc, millorant així la caracterització dels actors hostils i les seves activitats en el ciberespai. Addicionalment, les propostes per a millorar la detecció d'aquestes activitats són d'aplicació directa tant als Centres d'Operacions de Seguretat actuals com en les tecnologies de detecció més comuns de la industria. D'aquesta forma, aquest treball millora de forma significativa les capacitats d'anàlisi i detecció actuals, i per tant millora alhora la neutralització d'operacions hostils. Aquestes capacitats incrementen la seguretat global de tot tipus d'organitzacions i, en definitiva, de la nostra societat.[EN] Information and its related technologies are a critical asset to protect for people, organizations and even whole countries. Our dependency on information technologies increases every day, so their security is a key issue for our wellness. The benefits that information technologies provide are questionless, but their usage also presents risks that, linked to our growing dependency on technologies, we must mitigate. Advanced threat actors are mainly categorized in criminal gangs, with an economic goal, and countries, whose goal is to gain superiority in strategic affairs such as commercial or military ones. These actors exploit technologies, particularly cyberspace, to achieve their goals. This PhD Thesis significantly contributes to advanced threat actors' categorization and to the detection of their hostile activities. The analysis of their features is a must not only to know better these actors and their operations, but also to ease the deployment of countermeasures that increase our security. The detection of these operations is a mandatory first step to neutralize them, so to minimize their impact. Regarding characterization, this work delves into the analysis of advanced threat actors' tactics and techniques. This analysis is always required for an accurate detection of hostile activities in cyberspace, but in the particular case of advances threat actors, from criminal gangs to nation-states, it is mandatory: their activities are stealthy, as their success in most cases relies on not being detected by the target. Regarding detection, this work identifies and justifies the key requirements to establish an accurate response capability to face advanced threat actors. In addition, this work defines the tactics to be deployed in Security Operations Centers to optimize their detection and response capabilities. It is important to highlight that these tactics, with a kill-chain arrangement, allow not only this optimization, but particularly a homogeneous and structured approach, common to all defensive centers. In my opinion, one of the main bases of my work must be the applicability of its results. For this reason, the analysis of threat actors' tactics and techniques is aligned with the main public framework for this analysis, MITRE ATT&CK. The results and proposals from this research can be directly included in this framework, improving the threat actors' characterization, as well as their cyberspace activities' one. In addition, the proposals to improve these activities' detection are directly applicable both in current Security Operations Centers and in common industry technologies. In this way, I consider that this work significantly improves current analysis and detection capabilities, and at the same time it improves hostile operations' neutralization. These capabilities increase global security for all kind of organizations and, definitely, for our whole society.Villalón Huerta, A. (2023). Modeling of Advanced Threat Actors: Characterization, Categorization and Detection [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/193855Compendi

Cybercrimes and the Rule of Law in West-Africa: The Republic of Cote d’Ivoire as a Case-Study.

Since becoming independent nations in the 60s, West-African countries have enacted laws and regulations with the goals of ensuring peace and justice within their respective borders. On the paper, there was no difference between the justice systems of those newly independent nations and the justice systems of their former masters. Unfortunately, the rule of law in West-African nations since gaining independence, has not always been followed for a myriad of social, cultural, political, and economic reasons. Most justice systems in West-Africa including in Cote d’Ivoire are deeply corrupted, thus rendering the goal of a peaceful society through a fair justice system mute. With the emergence of a new type of crimes taking place in cyberspace, there has been a logical need to enact new laws to protect the public using the added information and communication technologies (ICT). Over the past few years, multiple cyber-legislations have sprung-up all over Africa including in Cote d’Ivoire. The fundamental question is to ask whether the enforcement of cybercrimes laws is more successful than the enforcement of traditional laws. The problem of the enforceability of these cybercrime legislations is compounded by the very nature of cyberspace which is “borderless.” Faced with the complexity of those computer crimes taking place in the virtual space, do West-African countries in general and specifically Cote d’Ivoire have the infrastructure, the knowledge, and the workforce to efficiently investigate and prosecute cybercrimes? This research tries to investigate, expose the theoretical inadequation between cybercrimes legislations and the enforcement capabilities of the Ivorian state, based on the deficiencies of enforcement of traditional laws and the need to stem the tide of corruption in general and specifically in the justice system. This research uses the case-study method because case studies are in-depth investigations of a single person, group, event, or community. Our findings have confirmed our assumptions that the enforcement of cybercrime laws is flawed due to the lack of proper equipment, skills of law enforcement personnel, even though the country has put in place many agencies to fight against cybercrimes. The social, cultural, political, and economical determinants that have always inhibited the fair and just enforcement of traditional laws is exerting the same kind of pressure on the capabilities of Law enforcement when it comes to the investigation and prosecution of cybercrimes in Cote d’Ivoire. This research, far from being exhaustive, needs a follow-up research in the future when the country retrieves its past stability and social peace which will allow a more open cooperation between researchers and the different authorities leading the fight against cybercrimes