Organizational Fragmentation and the Trajectory of Militant Splinter Groups

Militant organizations commonly break down and split apart, with new groups emerging from the ranks of existing organizations. From Syria to Iraq to Afghanistan, militant groups have splintered and proliferated in this way, creating fragmented oppositions that significantly complicate the conflict landscape. This process of organizational splintering historically has created some of the deadliest and most well known organizations including Al Shabaab, Black September, and the Real IRA. However, at other times the new organizations have quickly disappeared, failing to impact the conflict in any meaningful way.What explains this variation in the trajectory of militant splinter groups over time? Specifically, this dissertation explores why some organizational fractures produce new groups that are durable and increasingly radicalized, while others merely fall apart. This is an important topic that has ramifications for how academics and policymakers alike understand the behavior of specific actors and also the evolution of fragmented conflicts around the globe. I develop a new theory to explain variation in rates of survival and radicalization that focuses on the content and the consistency of internal organizational preferences. I argue that the content of group preferences can explain relative rates of radicalization and tactical change whereas the consistency or alignment of those preferences influences their chances of survival. Splinter groups that attract tactical and strategic hardliners are most likely to radicalize while inconsistent internal preferences lead to feuding, a lack of cohesion, and a lower likelihood of survival. Although impossible to directly observe, I show that different pathways of organizational breakdown, which one can observe, strongly shape the distribution of group preferences. In other words, different pathways of group formation have enduring effects on organizational behavior. I test my theory with a mixed-methods research design. The empirical results from analyzing a new data set provide robust cross-national support for my theory while my case study of republican militants in Northern Ireland - supplemented by three months of field world in Belfast, London, and Dublin - demonstrates the theory\u27s causal mechanisms in action. These findings confirm that the conditions leading to group formation play an enduring role, driving group behavior well into the future

The illicit business of terrorism

This dissertation addresses a key variable determining the threat posed by terrorist groups. It relates the threat posed by terrorist attacks to how capable a terrorist group is to carry out attacks. As such, it links the threat not to the willingness of a terrorist group to conduct attacks but to its ability to do so. I maintain that for any active terrorist group the willingness to commit attacks is a necessary requirement. A terrorist group’s capability, in contrast, depends on a variety of internal and external factors. Study- ing how differences in those endowments or constraints induce varying capabilities offers a tangible approach to understand the threat posed by a specific terrorist group

Living aloft: Human requirements for extended spaceflight

Human psychological and social adjustment to space is investigated. Studies and experiences bearing on human performance capability, psychological well being, and social organization, as they relate to space, were identified and assessed, and suggestions offered as to where further research could ease the Earth/space transition. Special emphasis was given to the variables of crew size, crew diversity, and mission duration, all of which can be expected to increase in future spaceflight. By providing a conceptual framework in which issues and related information can be integrated, the hope is to aid in discovering those conditions under which future space travelers can flourish

Banking regulation in a federal system: lessons from American and German banking history

This dissertation contrasts the development of the regulatory structure of the American and German banking systems until the mid-20th century. It explains why the countries' regulatory structures diverged into diametrically opposite directions, even though both countries had federal political systems and regularly observed the developments in the other country. Furthermore, after the Second World War, the American military government was even able to mold the German banking system into an idealized version of the American one. The thesis also provides an explanation why this assimilation attempt ultimately failed, and why there was a strong institutional persistency between Nazi Germany and West Germany instead. The original contributions to knowledge are the following: (1) This thesis offers a novel perspective on the evolution of the structure of American banking regulation by interpreting it as being largely driven by constitutional conflict (2) it shows that prior to the Banking Crisis of 1931 there was no intention to introduce a comprehensive regulatory structure for the banking sector in Germany (3) It provides a reassessment of the origins of the German Credit Act of 1961 as a non-deterministic process (4) It interprets German banking regulation after the Second World War as a failed Institutional Assimilation, which provides evidence that the decentralized regulatory arrangement of the American banking system was held in place by strong states' rights. In the absence of strong states' rights such a system would not persist and, indeed, in Germany it did not (5) It re-interprets German post-war economic history as being driven by the need of the German federal government to re-establish supremacy over economic matters. This assigns a new important role for Ludwig Erhard in German post-war competition history, as being an enabler of liberalization rather than being a liberalizing force himself

Assessing the Role and Regulatory Impact of Digital Assets in Decentralizing Finance

This project will explore the development of decentralized financial (DeFi) markets since the first introduction of digital assets created through the application of a form of distributed ledger technology (DLT), known as blockchain, in 2008. More specifically, a qualitative inquiry of the role of digital assets in relation to traditional financial markets infrastructure will be conducted in order to answer the following questions: (i) can the digital asset and decentralized financial markets examined in this thesis co-exist with traditional assets and financial markets, and, if so, (ii) are traditional or novel forms of regulation (whether financial or otherwise) needed or desirable for the digital asset and decentralized financial markets examined herein? The aim of this project will be to challenge a preliminary hypothesis that traditional and decentralized finance can be compatible; provided, that governments and other centralized authorities approach market innovations as an opportunity to improve existing monetary infrastructure and delivery of financial services (both in the public and private sector), rather than as an existential threat. Thus, this thesis seeks to establish that, through collaborating with private markets to identify the public good to which DeFi markets contribute, the public sector can foster an appropriate environment which is both promotive and protective of the public interest without unduly stifling innovation and progress