Bayesian Fused Lasso regression for dynamic binary networks

We propose a multinomial logistic regression model for link prediction in a time series of directed binary networks. To account for the dynamic nature of the data we employ a dynamic model for the model parameters that is strongly connected with the fused lasso penalty. In addition to promoting sparseness, this prior allows us to explore the presence of change points in the structure of the network. We introduce fast computational algorithms for estimation and prediction using both optimization and Bayesian approaches. The performance of the model is illustrated using simulated data and data from a financial trading network in the NYMEX natural gas futures market. Supplementary material containing the trading network data set and code to implement the algorithms is available online

The group fused Lasso for multiple change-point detection

We present the group fused Lasso for detection of multiple change-points shared by a set of co-occurring one-dimensional signals. Change-points are detected by approximating the original signals with a constraint on the multidimensional total variation, leading to piecewise-constant approximations. Fast algorithms are proposed to solve the resulting optimization problems, either exactly or approximately. Conditions are given for consistency of both algorithms as the number of signals increases, and empirical evidence is provided to support the results on simulated and array comparative genomic hybridization data

On-the-fly Approximation of Multivariate Total Variation Minimization

In the context of change-point detection, addressed by Total Variation minimization strategies, an efficient on-the-fly algorithm has been designed leading to exact solutions for univariate data. In this contribution, an extension of such an on-the-fly strategy to multivariate data is investigated. The proposed algorithm relies on the local validation of the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions on the dual problem. Showing that the non-local nature of the multivariate setting precludes to obtain an exact on-the-fly solution, we devise an on-the-fly algorithm delivering an approximate solution, whose quality is controlled by a practitioner-tunable parameter, acting as a trade-off between quality and computational cost. Performance assessment shows that high quality solutions are obtained on-the-fly while benefiting of computational costs several orders of magnitude lower than standard iterative procedures. The proposed algorithm thus provides practitioners with an efficient multivariate change-point detection on-the-fly procedure

Joint segmentation of many aCGH profiles using fast group LARS

Array-Based Comparative Genomic Hybridization (aCGH) is a method used to search for genomic regions with copy numbers variations. For a given aCGH profile, one challenge is to accurately segment it into regions of constant copy number. Subjects sharing the same disease status, for example a type of cancer, often have aCGH profiles with similar copy number variations, due to duplications and deletions relevant to that particular disease. We introduce a constrained optimization algorithm that jointly segments aCGH profiles of many subjects. It simultaneously penalizes the amount of freedom the set of profiles have to jump from one level of constant copy number to another, at genomic locations known as breakpoints. We show that breakpoints shared by many different profiles tend to be found first by the algorithm, even in the presence of significant amounts of noise. The algorithm can be formulated as a group LARS problem. We propose an extremely fast way to find the solution path, i.e., a sequence of shared breakpoints in order of importance. For no extra cost the algorithm smoothes all of the aCGH profiles into piecewise-constant regions of equal copy number, giving low-dimensional versions of the original data. These can be shown for all profiles on a single graph, allowing for intuitive visual interpretation. Simulations and an implementation of the algorithm on bladder cancer aCGH profiles are provided

Group-Lasso on Splines for Spectrum Cartography

The unceasing demand for continuous situational awareness calls for innovative and large-scale signal processing algorithms, complemented by collaborative and adaptive sensing platforms to accomplish the objectives of layered sensing and control. Towards this goal, the present paper develops a spline-based approach to field estimation, which relies on a basis expansion model of the field of interest. The model entails known bases, weighted by generic functions estimated from the field's noisy samples. A novel field estimator is developed based on a regularized variational least-squares (LS) criterion that yields finitely-parameterized (function) estimates spanned by thin-plate splines. Robustness considerations motivate well the adoption of an overcomplete set of (possibly overlapping) basis functions, while a sparsifying regularizer augmenting the LS cost endows the estimator with the ability to select a few of these bases that ``better'' explain the data. This parsimonious field representation becomes possible, because the sparsity-aware spline-based method of this paper induces a group-Lasso estimator for the coefficients of the thin-plate spline expansions per basis. A distributed algorithm is also developed to obtain the group-Lasso estimator using a network of wireless sensors, or, using multiple processors to balance the load of a single computational unit. The novel spline-based approach is motivated by a spectrum cartography application, in which a set of sensing cognitive radios collaborate to estimate the distribution of RF power in space and frequency. Simulated tests corroborate that the estimated power spectrum density atlas yields the desired RF state awareness, since the maps reveal spatial locations where idle frequency bands can be reused for transmission, even when fading and shadowing effects are pronounced.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Signal Processin

The Lasso for High-Dimensional Regression with a Possible Change-Point

We consider a high-dimensional regression model with a possible change-point due to a covariate threshold and develop the Lasso estimator of regression coefficients as well as the threshold parameter. Our Lasso estimator not only selects covariates but also selects a model between linear and threshold regression models. Under a sparsity assumption, we derive non-asymptotic oracle inequalities for both the prediction risk and the $\ell_1$ estimation loss for regression coefficients. Since the Lasso estimator selects variables simultaneously, we show that oracle inequalities can be established without pretesting the existence of the threshold effect. Furthermore, we establish conditions under which the estimation error of the unknown threshold parameter can be bounded by a nearly $n^{-1}$ factor even when the number of regressors can be much larger than the sample size ($n$). We illustrate the usefulness of our proposed estimation method via Monte Carlo simulations and an application to real data