How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models

This paper presents evidence that currency episodes display heterogeneity in terms of their evolution, their impact on the inflicted economy and their links with financial, political and macroeconomic fundamentals. Limited-dependent variable models for ordered and unordered outcomes along with their heteroskedastic and random effects extensions are applied to a large panel of data comprising 40 years of monthly observations on 23 developed countries. Heterogeneity, complemented by indications of self-fulfilling expectations and noise, suggest that time and region specific predictive approaches and policy responses are more useful than trying to base analysis and policy decisions on more general patterns. Results are established with formal specification tests.Money demand; Currency crises; speculative pressure; exchange rate; devaluation; Limited-dependent variable models

Applied statistics: A review

The main phases of applied statistical work are discussed in general terms. The account starts with the clarification of objectives and proceeds through study design, measurement and analysis to interpretation. An attempt is made to extract some general notions.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOAS113 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Query-based Deep Improvisation

In this paper we explore techniques for generating new music using a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) neural network that was trained on a corpus of specific style. Instead of randomly sampling the latent states of the network to produce free improvisation, we generate new music by querying the network with musical input in a style different from the training corpus. This allows us to produce new musical output with longer-term structure that blends aspects of the query to the style of the network. In order to control the level of this blending we add a noisy channel between the VAE encoder and decoder using bit-allocation algorithm from communication rate-distortion theory. Our experiments provide new insight into relations between the representational and structural information of latent states and the query signal, suggesting their possible use for composition purposes

The Emotional and Chromatic Layers of Urban Smells

People are able to detect up to 1 trillion odors. Yet, city planning is concerned only with a few bad odors, mainly because odors are currently captured only through complaints made by urban dwellers. To capture both good and bad odors, we resort to a methodology that has been recently proposed and relies on tagging information of geo-referenced pictures. In doing so for the cities of London and Barcelona, this work makes three new contributions. We study 1) how the urban smellscape changes in time and space; 2) which emotions people share at places with specific smells; and 3) what is the color of a smell, if it exists. Without social media data, insights about those three aspects have been difficult to produce in the past, further delaying the creation of urban restorative experiences.Comment: 11 pages, 18 figures, final version published in the Proceedings of the Tenth International Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM 2016