Investment Risk Appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. This approach may account for what occurs most of the time in the market, but the picture it presents does not reflect the reality, as the major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we discuss the grounds for classical asset pricing model revision and argue that the demand for relaxed assumptions appeals for another approach to modelling the market environment

Soft computing in investment appraisal

Standard financial techniques neglect extreme situations and regards large market shifts as too unlikely to matter. Such approach accounts for what occurs most of the time in the market, but does not reflect the reality, as major events happen in the rest of the time and investors are ‘surprised’ by ‘unexpected’ market movements. An alternative fuzzy approach permits fluctuations well beyond the probability type of uncertainty and allows one to make fewer assumptions about the data distribution and market behaviour. Fuzzifying the present value criteria, we suggest a measure of the risk associated with each investment opportunity and estimate the project’s robustness towards market uncertainty. The procedure is applied to thirty-five UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange and a neural network solution to the fuzzy criterion is provided to facilitate the decision-making process. Finally, we suggest a specific evolutionary algorithm to train a fuzzy neural net - the bidirectional incremental evolution will automatically identify the complexity of the problem and correspondingly adapt the parameters of the fuzzy network

A methodology for the selection of new technologies in the aviation industry

The purpose of this report is to present a technology selection methodology to quantify both tangible and intangible benefits of certain technology alternatives within a fuzzy environment. Specifically, it describes an application of the theory of fuzzy sets to hierarchical structural analysis and economic evaluations for utilisation in the industry. The report proposes a complete methodology to accurately select new technologies. A computer based prototype model has been developed to handle the more complex fuzzy calculations. Decision-makers are only required to express their opinions on comparative importance of various factors in linguistic terms rather than exact numerical values. These linguistic variable scales, such as ‘very high’, ‘high’, ‘medium’, ‘low’ and ‘very low’, are then converted into fuzzy numbers, since it becomes more meaningful to quantify a subjective measurement into a range rather than in an exact value. By aggregating the hierarchy, the preferential weight of each alternative technology is found, which is called fuzzy appropriate index. The fuzzy appropriate indices of different technologies are then ranked and preferential ranking orders of technologies are found. From the economic evaluation perspective, a fuzzy cash flow analysis is employed. This deals quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainties, as the cash flows are modelled as triangular fuzzy numbers which represent ‘the most likely possible value’, ‘the most pessimistic value’ and ‘the most optimistic value’. By using this methodology, the ambiguities involved in the assessment data can be effectively represented and processed to assure a more convincing and effective decision- making process when selecting new technologies in which to invest. The prototype model was validated with a case study within the aviation industry that ensured it was properly configured to meet the

Fuzzy Real Investment Valuation Model for Giga-Investments, and a Note on Giga-Investment Lifecycle and Valuation

Very large industrial real investments are different from financial investments and from small real investments, even so, their profitability is commonly valued with the same methods. A definition of a group of very large industrial real investments is made, by requiring three common characteristics. The decision support needs arising from these characteristics are discussed and a summary of existing methods to value and to provide decision support for large industrial investments is presented. A model built specifically to support investment decisions of very large industrial real investments and a numerical application of the model are presented. The model is discussed and commented. A note is made on an observation regarding the giga-investment lifecycle and its effect on giga-investment valuation.Large industrial investments; Profitability analysis; Fuzzy corporate finance; Capital Budgeting

Theoretical optimisation of IT/IS investments: A research note

The justification of Information Technology (IT) is inherently fuzzy, both in theory and practice. The reason for this is due to the largely intangible dimensions of IT projects. In view of this, this research note presents the results of on-going research, in the application of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM), as a tool to identify complex functional interrelationships associated with the justification of IT. This paper presents a theoretical functional model which describes these relationships, and by using an FCM, further interrelationships are developed in the context of justifying IT projects. A procedure which would address the optimisation of these intangible relationships in the form of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed as a process for Investment Justification

Capital Budgeting Methods and Performance of Water Services Boards in Kenya

One management practice that has been widely adopted by corporations is capital budgeting. The current study sought to establish the relationship between capital budgeting methods and performance of water services boards in Kenya. The study was guided by the following specific objectives: to identify the capital budgeting techniques employed by the Water Services Boards in Kenya; to assess the factors that influence the choice of the capital budgeting techniques used by the Water Services Boards in Kenya; and to evaluate the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and organizational performance. A review of literature related to the study area was undertaken in order to eliminate duplication of what has been done and provide a clear understanding of existing knowledge base in the problem area. The literature review is based on authoritative, recent, and original sources such as journals, books, thesis and dissertations. A descriptive design was to identity the relationship between capital budgeting techniques and performance in water services boards in Kenya, whose number stood at 8 as at June 2008. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect primary data from the respondents. Since all the Water Boards have websites and reliable internet connection, the researcher sent the questionnaires to the respondents outside Nairobi by email. The Boards whose Head offices are located in Nairobi received their questionnaires by hand delivery. A letter of introduction, stating the purpose of the study was attached to each questionnaire. In addition, the researcher made telephone calls to the respective respondents to further explain the purpose of the study and set a time frame for the completion of the questionnaires. Once completed, the researcher personally collected the questionnaires from respondents in Nairobi, while those from outside Nairobi were received online. Findings of the study indicate that the capital budgeting techniques used by Water Services Boards in Kenya include Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Profitability Index, Average Rate of Return and Payback Period. The findings further show that the Factors that Influence the choice of capital budgeting techniques include: - Cost of debt to the Water Service Board, either from public or private sources; Internal Rate of Return; Average cost of capital for its stakeholders; Average rate of return on equity invested by the Water Services Boards; and Risk associated with the project. The findings also point at a positive relationship between usage of capital budgeting techniques and organizational performance. Improved access to funding to undertake projects and informed decision making were cited by the respondents as being the major benefits of adoption of capital budgeting techniques. Keywords: Capital Budgeting, Performance, Water Services Board

Operational budgeting using fuzzy goal programming

Having an efficient budget normally has different advantages such as measuring the performance of various organizations, setting appropriate targets and promoting managers based on their achievements. However, any budgeting planning requires prediction of different cost components. There are various methods for budgeting planning such as incremental budgeting, program budgeting, zero based budgeting and performance budgeting. In this paper, we present a fuzzy goal programming to estimate operational budget. The proposed model uses fuzzy triangular as well as interval number to estimate budgeting expenses. The proposed study of this paper is implemented for a real-world case study in province of Qom, Iran and the results are analyzed

An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

Fuzzy net present value for engineering analysis

Cash flow analysis is one of the most popular methods for investigating the outcome of an economical project. The costs and benefits of a construction project are often involved with uncertainty and it is not possible to find a precise value for a particular project. In this paper, we present a simple method to calculate the net present value of a cash flow when both costs and benefits are given as triangular numbers. The proposed model of this paper uses Delphi method to figure out the fair values of all costs and revenues and then using fizzy programming techniques, it calculates the fuzzy net present value. The implementation of the proposed model is demonstrated using a simple example

Developing a frame of reference for ex-ante IT/IS investment evaluation

Investment appraisal techniques are an integral part of many traditional capital budgeting processes. However, the adoption of Information Systems (IS) and the development of resulting infrastructures are being increasingly viewed on the basis of consumption. Consequently, decision-makers are now moving away from the confines of rigid capital budgeting processes, which have traditionally compared IS with non-IS-related investments. With this in mind, the authors seek to dissect investment appraisal from the broader capital budgeting process to allow a deeper understanding of the mechanics involved with IS justification. This analysis presents conflicting perspectives surrounding the scope and sensitivity of traditional appraisal methods. In contributing to this debate, the authors present taxonomies of IS benefit types and associated natures, and discuss the resulting implications of using traditional appraisal techniques during the IS planning and decision-making process. A frame of reference that can be used to navigate through the variety of appraisal methods available to decision-makers is presented and discussed. Taxonomies of appraisal techniques that are classified by their respective characteristics are also presented. Perspectives surrounding the degree of involvement that financial appraisal should play during decision making and the limitations surrounding investment appraisal techniques are identifie