An Evaluation of End of Maintenance Dates and Lifetime Buy Estimations for Electronic Systems Facing Obsolescence

The business of supporting legacy electronic systems is challenging due to mismatches between the system support life and the procurement lives of the systems' constituent components. Legacy electronic systems are threatened with Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS)-type obsolescence, and the extent of their system support lives based on existing replenishable and non-replenishable resources may be unknown. This thesis describes the development of the End of Repair/End of Maintenance (EOR/EOM) model, which is a stochastic discrete-event simulation that follows the life history of a population of parts and cards and operates from time-to-failure distributions that are either user-defined, or synthesized from observed failures to date. The model determines the support life (and support costs) of the system based on existing inventories of spare parts and cards, and optionally harvesting parts from existing cards to further extend the life of the system. The model includes: part inventory segregation, modeling of part inventory degradation and periodic inventory inspections, and design refresh planning. A case study using a real legacy system comprised of 117,000 instances of 70 unique cards and 4.5 million unique parts is presented. The case study was used to evaluate the system support life (and support costs) through a series of different scenarios: obsolete parts with no failure history and never failing, obsolete parts with no failure history but immediately incurring their first failures with and without the use of part harvesting. The case study also includes analyses for recording subsequent EOM and EOR dates, sensitivity analyses for selected design refreshes that maximize system sustainment, and design refresh planning to ensure system sustainment to an end of support date. Lifetime buys refer to buying enough parts from the original manufacturer prior to the part's discontinuance in order to support all forecasted future part needs throughout the system's required support life. This thesis describes the development of the Lifetime Buy (LTB) model, a reverse-application of the EOR/EOM model, that follows the life history of an electronic system and determines the number of spares required to ensure system sustainment. The LTB model can generate optimum lifetime buy quantities of parts that minimizes the total life-cycle cost associated with the estimated lifetime buy quantity

Understanding and Modeling the Life-Cycle Cost Tradeoffs Associated with the Procurement of Open Systems

Acquisition Research Program Sponsored Report SeriesSponsored Acquisition Research & Technical ReportsOpenness (of a system or architecture), though intuitively understood, remains difficult to quantify in terms of its value. Although commonly associated with cost avoidance, system openness can also increase costs. Previous efforts have relied on highly qualitative system analyses, with the results often articulated as an intangible “openness score”, for determining which of multiple system implementations is more open. Such approaches do not provide enough information to make a business case or understand the conditions under which life-cycle cost avoidance can be maximized (or whether there even is cost avoidance). This report presents a multivariate model that quantifies the relationship between system openness and life-cycle cost. A case study that evaluates the Acoustic Rapid COTS Insertion (A-RCI) Sonar System is provided.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Systems engineering and management approach for complex systems

Thesis (S.M. in System Design and Management)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 79-81).Obsolescence mitigation is an increasingly important aspect of large systems development & maintenance that has often only been considered once obsolescence is imminent. For long lifecycle systems, this has become a major concern as the lifecycles of the components that are encompassed within these systems are often far shorter - up to ten times shorter - than the overall system lifecycle. Many defense systems can be characterized in this manner and therefore require obsolescence mitigation approaches to ensure the continuing ability for the system to perform and evolve. Current system-level obsolescence mitigation practices make recommendations for designing new systems to slow the onset of obsolescence and make the system more flexible when change for obsolescence is required. However, currently fielded systems were often not designed with this in mind. Other obsolescence mitigation techniques focus only on the approach to mitigating component-level obsolescence locally without examining the impact of the change on the system as a whole. This thesis combines the recommended approaches for obsolescence mitigation, the experience and lessons learned for obsolescence mitigation on a real-world case study system gained from interviews with key subject matter experts, along with systems engineering techniques for dealing with engineering change in systems to develop a robust systems engineering and management approach for obsolescence in large complex systems. The thesis provides the reader with a flow chart and a clustered DSM of the tasks along with a checklist that could be used with this obsolescence engineering and management approach.by Jaime E. Devereaux.S.M.in System Design and Managemen

A Hierarchical Core Reference Ontology for New Technology Insertion Design in Long Life Cycle, Complex Mission Critical Systems

Organizations, including government, commercial and others, face numerous challenges in maintaining and upgrading long life-cycle, complex, mission critical systems. Maintaining and upgrading these systems requires the insertion and integration of new technology to avoid obsolescence of hardware software, and human skills, to improve performance, to maintain and improve security, and to extend useful life. This is particularly true of information technology (IT) intensive systems. The lack of a coherent body of knowledge to organize new technology insertion theory and practice is a significant contributor to this difficulty. This research organized the existing design, technology road mapping, obsolescence, and sustainability literature into an ontology of theory and application as the foundation for a technology design and technology insertion design hierarchical core reference ontology and laid the foundation for body of knowledge that better integrates the new technology insertion problem into the technology design architecture

Process Mapping a Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Materiel Shortages Reactive Management Strategy: A Case Study

In order to handle its obligations, the Brazilian Ministry of Defense (MoD) will need an information system capable of managing logistics information from all military services. A project to develop an integrated information system to fit the requirements of different, but connected, organizations has inherent challenges. Differences in the organizational structures, cultures and political aspects, are key issues to be observed before the development to assure the project\u27s success. The same is applicable when trying to adapt an already existing information system to fill the needs of another organization. In the new organization, it is mandatory to assess the feasibility of the software\u27s alternatives available. Alternatives can be to adapt an existing information system or to develop a completely new system. This research sought to develop a method for assessing the organizational, cultural, and political considerations affecting the insertion of the Integrated Logistics Information System (SILOMS), developed by the Brazilian Air Force, into the MoD. The research develops a method for assisting decision makers in assessing the risks involved in the implementation of an information system in the MoD

Weaving time into system architecture : new perspectives on flexibility, spacecraft design lifetime, and on-orbit servicing

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, June, 2002.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 203-214).A roadmap for a comprehensive treatment of issues of flexibility in system design is developed that addresses the following questions: 1) What are the characteristic features of flexibility in system design? Can one clearly and unambiguously characterize flexibility, and disentangle it from closely related concepts? 2) What drives the need for flexibility in system design, and what are the attributes of an environment in which flexible designs should be sought and fielded? 3) How can one embed flexibility in a system design? 4) What are the trade-offs associated with designing for flexibility? What is the value of flexibility and what are the associated penalties (cost, performance, risk, etc.), if any? These are the fundamental questions around which this thesis revolves. The first part of this work addresses the first two questions: Flexibility of a design is here defined as the property of a system that allows it to respond to changes in its initial objectives and requirements-both in terms of capabilities and attributes-occurring after the system has been fielded, i.e., is in operation, in a timely and cost-effective way. It is argued that flexibility should be sought when: 1) the uncertainty in a system's environment is such that there is a need to mitigate market risks, in the case of a commercial venture, and reduce a design's exposure to uncertainty in its environment, 2) the system's technology base evolves on a time scale considerably shorter than the system's design lifetime, thus requiring a solution for mitigating risks associated with technology obsolescence.(cont.) In other words, flexibility reduces a design's exposure to uncertainty, and provides a solution for mitigating market risks as well as risks associated with technology obsolescence. One way flexibility manifests its criticality to systems architects is in the specification of the system design lifetime requirement. The second part of this work addresses issues of design lifetime, and ways to provide and value flexibility in the particular case of space systems. First, it is shown that design lifetime is a key requirement in sizing various spacecraft subsystems. Second, spacecraft cost profiles as a function of the design lifetime are established and a cost per operational day metric is introduced. It is found that a cost penalty of 30% to 40% is incurred when designing a spacecraft for fifteen years instead of three years, all else being equal. Also, the cost per operational day decreases monotonically as a function of the spacecraft design lifetime. An augmented perspective on system architecture is proposed (diachronic) that complements traditional views on system architecture (synchronic). It is suggested for example that the system's design lifetime is a fundamental component of system architecture although one cannot see it or touch it. Consequently, cost, utility, and value per unit time metrics are introduced and explored in order to identify optimal design lifetimes for complex systems in general, and space systems in particular. Results show that an optimal design lifetime for space systems exists, even in the case of constant expected revenues per day over the system's lifetime ...by Joseph Homer Saleh.Ph.D

Systems Engineering Leading Indicators Guide, Version 2.0

The Systems Engineering Leading Indicators Guide editorial team is pleased to announce the release of Version 2.0. Version 2.0 supersedes Version 1.0, which was released in July 2007 and was the result of a project initiated by the Lean Advancement Initiative (LAI) at MIT in cooperation with: the International Council on Systems Engineering (INCOSE), Practical Software and Systems Measurement (PSM), and the Systems Engineering Advancement Research Initiative (SEAri) at MIT. A leading indicator is a measure for evaluating the effectiveness of how a specific project activity is likely to affect system performance objectives. A leading indicator may be an individual measure or a collection of measures and associated analysis that is predictive of future systems engineering performance. Systems engineering performance itself could be an indicator of future project execution and system performance. Leading indicators aid leadership in delivering value to customers and end users and help identify interventions and actions to avoid rework and wasted effort. Conventional measures provide status and historical information. Leading indicators use an approach that draws on trend information to allow for predictive analysis. By analyzing trends, predictions can be forecast on the outcomes of certain activities. Trends are analyzed for insight into both the entity being measured and potential impacts to other entities. This provides leaders with the data they need to make informed decisions and where necessary, take preventative or corrective action during the program in a proactive manner. Version 2.0 guide adds five new leading indicators to the previous 13 for a new total of 18 indicators. The guide addresses feedback from users of the previous version of the guide, as well as lessons learned from implementation and industry workshops. The document format has been improved for usability, and several new appendices provide application information and techniques for determining correlations of indicators. Tailoring of the guide for effective use is encouraged. Additional collaborating organizations involved in Version 2.0 include the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), US Department of Defense Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC), and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) Systems Engineering Division (SED). Many leading measurement and systems engineering experts from government, industry, and academia volunteered their time to work on this initiative

Critical Success Factors For Evolutionary Acquisition Implementation

Due to extensive challenges to the efficient development and fielding of operationally effective and affordable weapon systems, the U.S. employs a complex management framework to govern defense acquisition programs. The Department of Defense and Congress recently modified this process to improve the levels of knowledge available at key decision points in order to reduce lifecycle cost, schedule, and technical risk to programs. This exploratory research study employed multiple methods to examine the impact of systems engineering reviews, competitive prototyping, and the application of a Modular Open Systems Approach on knowledge and risk prior to funding system implementation and production. In-depth case studies of two recent Major Defense Acquisition Programs were conducted to verify the existence and relationships of the proposed constructs and identify potential barriers to program success introduced by the new process. The case studies included program documentation analysis as well as interviews with contractor personnel holding multiple roles on the program. A questionnaire-based survey of contractor personnel from a larger set of programs was executed to test the case study findings against a larger data set. The study results indicate that while some changes adversely affected program risk levels, the recent modifications to the acquisition process generally had a positive impact on levels of critical knowledge at the key Milestone B decision point. Based on the results of this study it is recommended that the Government improve its ability to communicate with contractors during competitive phases, particularly with regard to requirements management, and establish verifiable criteria for compliance with the iii Modular Open Systems Approach. Additionally, the Government should clarify the intent of competitive prototyping and develop a strategy to better manage the inevitable gaps between program phases. Contractors are recommended to present more requirements trade-offs and focus less on prototype development during the Technology Development phases of programs. The results of this study may be used by policy makers to shape future acquisition reforms; by Government personnel to improve the implementation of the current regulations; and by contractors to shape strategies and processes for more effective system development. This research may be used by the Government to improve the execution of acquisition programs under this new paradigm. The defense industrial base can use this research to better understand the impacts of the new process and improve strategic planning processes. The research methodology may be applied to new and different types of programs to assess improvement in the execution process over time

Advancing automation and robotics technology for the Space Station Freedom and for the U.S. economy

In April 1985, as required by Public Law 98-371, the NASA Advanced Technology Advisory Committee (ATAC) reported to Congress the results of its studies on advanced automation and robotics technology for use on Space Station Freedom. This material was documented in the initial report (NASA Technical Memorandum 87566). A further requirement of the law was that ATAC follow NASA's progress in this area and report to Congress semiannually. This report is the fifteenth in a series of progress updates and covers the period between 27 Feb. - 17 Sep. 1992. The progress made by Levels 1, 2, and 3 of the Space Station Freedom in developing and applying advanced automation and robotics technology is described. Emphasis was placed upon the Space Station Freedom program responses to specific recommendations made in ATAC Progress Report 14. Assessments are presented for these and other areas as they apply to the advancement of automation and robotics technology for Space Station Freedom

Space Biology Initiative. Trade Studies, volume 2

The six studies which are the subjects of this report are entitled: Design Modularity and Commonality; Modification of Existing Hardware (COTS) vs. New Hardware Build Cost Analysis; Automation Cost vs. Crew Utilization; Hardware Miniaturization versus Cost; Space Station Freedom/Spacelab Modules Compatibility vs. Cost; and Prototype Utilization in the Development of Space Hardware. The product of these six studies was intended to provide a knowledge base and methodology that enables equipment produced for the Space Biology Initiative program to meet specific design and functional requirements in the most efficient and cost effective form consistent with overall mission integration parameters. Each study promulgates rules of thumb, formulas, and matrices that serves as a handbook for the use and guidance of designers and engineers in design, development, and procurement of Space Biology Initiative (SBI) hardware and software