Broader Horizons?

For very good reasons, obvious every time we hear the news, it is difficult to separate the future of environmental history from the future of the environment. The long record of our species’ engagement with the global environment offers strong suggestions about the likely consequences of present actions and inactions. We are eager to share our insights with politicians and with the general public. Historians are naturally aware—probably more aware than anyone else—of the force of George Santayana’s well-known comment that "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." But we may be less aware of the frequent force of an alternative comment: that those who can remember the past are nevertheless condemned to repeat it, for one reason or another. Some of the attributes of good historical scholarship may actually undermine its potential as grist for the political mill. These are the same attributes that often produce problems when we try to distill complicated arguments or interpretations into an interview sound bite. (Of course, this predicament is not the exclusive preserve of environmental historians; we share it with academics in many other fields.

Broader horizons for animal personality research

Peer reviewe

Behind the GATE Experiment: Evidence on Effects of and Rationales for Subsidized Entrepreneurship Training

Various theories of market failures and targeting motivate the promotion of entrepreneurship training programs throughout the world. Using data from the largest randomized control trial ever conducted on entrepreneurship training, we examine the validity of such motivations and find that training does not have strong effects (in either relative or absolute terms) on those most likely to face credit or human capital constraints, or labor market discrimination. On the other hand, training does have a relatively strong short-run effect on business ownership for those unemployed at baseline, but not at other horizons or for other outcomes. On average, training increases short-run business ownership and employment, but there is no evidence of broader or longer-run effects on business ownership, business performance or broader outcomes.

Expanding the Area of Gravitational Entropy

I describe how gravitational entropy is intimately connected with the concept of gravitational heat, expressed as the difference between the total and free energies of a given gravitational system. From this perspective one can compute these thermodyanmic quantities in settings that go considerably beyond Bekenstein's original insight that the area of a black hole event horizon can be identified with thermodynamic entropy. The settings include the outsides of cosmological horizons and spacetimes with NUT charge. However the interpretation of gravitational entropy in these broader contexts remains to be understood.Comment: Latex, 19 pgs., To appear in "Bekenstein Issues" of Foundations of Physic

Predicting real growth and inflation with the yield spread

Analysts often use financial variables to help predict real activity and inflation. One of the most popular of these variables is the spread between yields on long-term and short-term government instruments, also known as the yield spread. Researchers have shown the spread is a good predictor of real activity. For instance, in a recent issue of the Economic Review, Bonser-Neal and Morley found that the spread helps predict real activity over the next year, the next two years, and the next three years.> Kozicki examines the predictive power of the yield spread for real growth and inflation in a collection of industrialized countries. She extends the analysis of Bonser-Neal and Morley by examining in greater detail the horizons at which the yield spread helps predict real growth and by investigating whether information on the level of yields contains additional predictive power beyond that summarized by the spread. She also adds to the existing literature by examining a broader collection of countries than has previously been analyzed and a wider array of forecast horizons. In addition, restrictions imposed in earlier studies are relaxed.> For real activity, Kozicki finds that the predictive power of the yield spread largely derives from its usefulness over horizons of a year or so and generally dominates the predictive power associated with the level of yields. For inflation, although the yield spread helps predict inflation at moderate horizons of a few years, the level of yields is a more useful predictor of inflation.Forecasting ; Interest rates ; Inflation (Finance)

On Black Holes in Massive Gravity

In massive gravity the so-far-found black hole solutions on Minkowski space happen to convert horizons into a certain type of singularities. Here we explore whether these singularities can be avoided if space-time is not asymptotically Minkowskian. We find an exact analytic black hole (BH) solution which evades the above problem by a transition at large scales to self-induced de Sitter (dS) space-time, with the curvature scale set by the graviton mass. This solution is similar to the ones discovered by Koyama, Niz and Tasinato, and by Nieuwenhuizen, but differs in detail. The solution demonstrates that in massive GR, in the Schwarzschild coordinate system, a BH metric has to be accompanied by the St\"uckelberg fields with nontrivial backgrounds to prevent the horizons to convert into the singularities. We also find an analogous solution for a Reissner-Nordstr\"om BH on dS space. A limitation of our approach, is that we find the solutions only for specific values of the two free parameters of the theory, for which both the vector and scalar fluctuations loose their kinetic terms, however, we hope our solutions represent a broader class with better behaved perturbations.Comment: 17 LateX page

Are mutual fund investors in jail?

The absence of investor reaction to the poor performance of mutual funds is a widely reported phenomenon. This paper investigates the role of load costs as an explanation for the phenomenon and concludes that back-end load fees are an obstacle to reaction. We find that investors with a high likelihood of undergoing a liquidity crisis, preferring liquidity in decision making, act contrary to the reaction hypothesis, and investors with broader investment horizons do not react to poor performances due to the fact that they are “imprisoned” by back-end load fees.Mutual Fund, Performance Reaction, Load Costs, Investor Behaviour

CLS and Marxism: a history of an affair

This essay explores the relationship between the Critical Legal Studies movement and the Marxist tradition. What role did Marxism play in the formation of CLS's ideological and theoretical horizons? What part was it assigned in the movement's symbolic economy of discursive projects and practices? What kinds of critical challenges did CLS scholars mount against the Marxist legal-theoretic tradition and what sorts of broader lessons can the Marxist tradition extract today from those criticisms? The essay starts by summarising the standard account of the relationship between CLS and Marxism that has historically developed within the CLS's own internal discourse. It problematises a number of basic assumptions underlying this account before turning its attention to the examination of CLS's (potential) contribution to the development of a new wave of the Marxist legal-theoretic enterprise