Building thermal load prediction through shallow machine learning and deep learning

Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty

Short-term Demand Forecasting for Online Car-hailing Services using Recurrent Neural Networks

Short-term traffic flow prediction is one of the crucial issues in intelligent transportation system, which is an important part of smart cities. Accurate predictions can enable both the drivers and the passengers to make better decisions about their travel route, departure time and travel origin selection, which can be helpful in traffic management. Multiple models and algorithms based on time series prediction and machine learning were applied to this issue and achieved acceptable results. Recently, the availability of sufficient data and computational power, motivates us to improve the prediction accuracy via deep-learning approaches. Recurrent neural networks have become one of the most popular methods for time series forecasting, however, due to the variety of these networks, the question that which type is the most appropriate one for this task remains unsolved. In this paper, we use three kinds of recurrent neural networks including simple RNN units, GRU and LSTM neural network to predict short-term traffic flow. The dataset from TAP30 Corporation is used for building the models and comparing RNNs with several well-known models, such as DEMA, LASSO and XGBoost. The results show that all three types of RNNs outperform the others, however, more simple RNNs such as simple recurrent units and GRU perform work better than LSTM in terms of accuracy and training time.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1706.06279, arXiv:1804.04176 by other author

Coding local and global binary visual features extracted from video sequences

Binary local features represent an effective alternative to real-valued descriptors, leading to comparable results for many visual analysis tasks, while being characterized by significantly lower computational complexity and memory requirements. When dealing with large collections, a more compact representation based on global features is often preferred, which can be obtained from local features by means of, e.g., the Bag-of-Visual-Word (BoVW) model. Several applications, including for example visual sensor networks and mobile augmented reality, require visual features to be transmitted over a bandwidth-limited network, thus calling for coding techniques that aim at reducing the required bit budget, while attaining a target level of efficiency. In this paper we investigate a coding scheme tailored to both local and global binary features, which aims at exploiting both spatial and temporal redundancy by means of intra- and inter-frame coding. In this respect, the proposed coding scheme can be conveniently adopted to support the Analyze-Then-Compress (ATC) paradigm. That is, visual features are extracted from the acquired content, encoded at remote nodes, and finally transmitted to a central controller that performs visual analysis. This is in contrast with the traditional approach, in which visual content is acquired at a node, compressed and then sent to a central unit for further processing, according to the Compress-Then-Analyze (CTA) paradigm. In this paper we experimentally compare ATC and CTA by means of rate-efficiency curves in the context of two different visual analysis tasks: homography estimation and content-based retrieval. Our results show that the novel ATC paradigm based on the proposed coding primitives can be competitive with CTA, especially in bandwidth limited scenarios.Comment: submitted to IEEE Transactions on Image Processin