Binary Classifier Calibration using an Ensemble of Near Isotonic Regression Models

Learning accurate probabilistic models from data is crucial in many practical tasks in data mining. In this paper we present a new non-parametric calibration method called \textit{ensemble of near isotonic regression} (ENIR). The method can be considered as an extension of BBQ, a recently proposed calibration method, as well as the commonly used calibration method based on isotonic regression. ENIR is designed to address the key limitation of isotonic regression which is the monotonicity assumption of the predictions. Similar to BBQ, the method post-processes the output of a binary classifier to obtain calibrated probabilities. Thus it can be combined with many existing classification models. We demonstrate the performance of ENIR on synthetic and real datasets for the commonly used binary classification models. Experimental results show that the method outperforms several common binary classifier calibration methods. In particular on the real data, ENIR commonly performs statistically significantly better than the other methods, and never worse. It is able to improve the calibration power of classifiers, while retaining their discrimination power. The method is also computationally tractable for large scale datasets, as it is $O(N \log N)$ time, where $N$ is the number of samples

Calibrating Deep Neural Networks using Focal Loss

Miscalibration -- a mismatch between a model's confidence and its correctness -- of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) makes their predictions hard to rely on. Ideally, we want networks to be accurate, calibrated and confident. We show that, as opposed to the standard cross-entropy loss, focal loss (Lin et al., 2017) allows us to learn models that are already very well calibrated. When combined with temperature scaling, whilst preserving accuracy, it yields state-of-the-art calibrated models. We provide a thorough analysis of the factors causing miscalibration, and use the insights we glean from this to justify the empirically excellent performance of focal loss. To facilitate the use of focal loss in practice, we also provide a principled approach to automatically select the hyperparameter involved in the loss function. We perform extensive experiments on a variety of computer vision and NLP datasets, and with a wide variety of network architectures, and show that our approach achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration in almost all cases

An Operational Perspective to Fairness Interventions: Where and How to Intervene

As AI-based decision systems proliferate, their successful operationalization requires balancing multiple desiderata: predictive performance, disparity across groups, safeguarding sensitive group attributes (e.g., race), and engineering cost. We present a holistic framework for evaluating and contextualizing fairness interventions with respect to the above desiderata. The two key points of practical consideration are \emph{where} (pre-, in-, post-processing) and \emph{how} (in what way the sensitive group data is used) the intervention is introduced. We demonstrate our framework with a case study on predictive parity. In it, we first propose a novel method for achieving predictive parity fairness without using group data at inference time via distibutionally robust optimization. Then, we showcase the effectiveness of these methods in a benchmarking study of close to 400 variations across two major model types (XGBoost vs. Neural Net), ten datasets, and over twenty unique methodologies. Methodological insights derived from our empirical study inform the practical design of ML workflow with fairness as a central concern. We find predictive parity is difficult to achieve without using group data, and despite requiring group data during model training (but not inference), distributionally robust methods we develop provide significant Pareto improvement. Moreover, a plain XGBoost model often Pareto-dominates neural networks with fairness interventions, highlighting the importance of model inductive bias