Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure

An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

Chinese Companies and Foreign Direct Investment in Brazil between 2000 and 2018

The article aims to understand the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the presence of Chinese multinationals in Brazil. To achieve its purpose, the text retrieves theoretical elements about FDI and the theories that explain the process of internationalization of companies, in order to explain the growing presence of Chinese multinationals in the country. We used data from official sources, such as the Central Bank of Brazil (CBB), UNCTAD and the Ministry of Commerce of China (MOFCOM), and from unofficial sources, such as the American Business Institute (ABI) and the Brazil China Business Council. We present some case studies of multinationals such as Sinopec (petroleum sector), Didi Chuxing (Technology/ Startup), State Grid (Electric Power) and Chery Automobile (Auto Industry), with intent to show the modus operandi of companies from different economic sectors. To analyze these companies, we used data from their websites and other information available online. As a preliminary conclusion, it can be stated that Chinese FDI in Brazil increased significantly during the 21st century, when compared to the total direct investment from other countries. The Chinese multinationals in Brazil focus their interests in search for raw materials and sale of products with greater added value

Ride-sourcing compared to its public-transit alternative using big trip data

Ride-sourcing risks increasing\ua0GHG emissions\ua0by replacing public transit (PT) for some trips therefore, understanding the relation of ride-sourcing to PT in urban mobility is crucial. This study explores the competition between ride-sourcing and PT through the lens of big data analysis. This research uses 4.3 million ride-sourcing trip records collected from Chengdu, China over a month, dividing these into two categories, transit-competing (48.2%) and non-transit-competing (51.8%). Here, a ride-sourcing trip is labelled transit-competing if and only if it occurs during the day and there is a PT alternative such that the walking distance associated with it is less than 800\ua0m for access and egress alike. We construct a glass-box model to characterise the two ride-sourcing trip categories based on trip attributes and the built environment from the enriched trip data. This study provides a good overview of not only the main factors affecting the relationship between ride-sourcing and PT, but also the interactions between those factors. The built environment, as characterised by points of interest (POIs) and transit-stop density, is the most important aspect followed by travel time, number of transfers, weather, and a series of interactions between them. Competition is more likely to arise if: (1) the travel time by ride-sourcing <15\ua0min or the travel time by PT is disproportionately longer than ride-sourcing; (2) the PT alternative requires multiple transfers, especially for the trips happening within the transition area between the central city and the outskirts; (3) the weather is good; (4)\ua0land use\ua0is high-density and high-diversity; (5) transit access is good, especially for the areas featuring a large number of business and much real estate. Based on the main findings, we discuss a few recommendations for transport planning and policymaking