Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Research Directions in Information Systems for Humanitarian Logistics

This article systematically reviews the literature on using IT (Information Technology) in humanitarian logistics focusing on disaster relief operations. We first discuss problems in humanitarian relief logistics. We then identify the stage and disaster type for each article as well as the article’s research methodology and research contribution. Finally, we identify potential future research directions

Early aspects: aspect-oriented requirements engineering and architecture design

This paper reports on the third Early Aspects: Aspect-Oriented Requirements Engineering and Architecture Design Workshop, which has been held in Lancaster, UK, on March 21, 2004. The workshop included a presentation session and working sessions in which the particular topics on early aspects were discussed. The primary goal of the workshop was to focus on challenges to defining methodical software development processes for aspects from early on in the software life cycle and explore the potential of proposed methods and techniques to scale up to industrial applications

Towards design of prognostics and health management solutions for maritime assets

With increase in competition between OEMs of maritime assets and operators alike, the need to maximize the productivity of an equipment and increase operational efficiency and reliability is increasingly stringent and challenging. Also, with the adoption of availability contracts, maritime OEMs are becoming directly interested in understanding the health of their assets in order to maximize profits and to minimize the risk of a system's failure. The key to address these challenges and needs is performance optimization. For this to be possible it is important to understand that system failure can induce downtime which will increase the total cost of ownership, therefore it is important by all means to minimize unscheduled maintenance. If the state of health or condition of a system, subsystem or component is known, condition-based maintenance can be carried out and system design optimization can be achieved thereby reducing total cost of ownership. With the increasing competition with regards to the maritime industry, it is important that the state of health of a component/sub-system/system/asset is known before a vessel embarks on a mission. Any breakdown or malfunction in any part of any system or subsystem on board vessel during the operation offshore will lead to large economic losses and sometimes cause accidents. For example, damages to the fuel oil system of vessel's main engine can result in huge downtime as a result of the vessel not being in operation. This paper presents a prognostic and health management (PHM) development process applied on a fuel oil system powering diesel engines typically used in various cruise and fishing vessels, dredgers, pipe laying vessels and large oil tankers. This process will hopefully enable future PHM solutions for maritime assets to be designed in a more formal and systematic way

Implementing Energy Efficiency & ESD from a Development Perspective

This note discusses the difficulties currently being experienced in implementing Ecological Sustainable Development (ESD) from a development perspective. It looks at what motivates developers and examines what is needed, either through mandatory measures or incentives to change the development culture in Australia. The note draws on experience from a number of current and recently completed projects and incorporates input from developers. It also includes discussion on the evolving outcomes of current industry initiatives aimed specifically at changing development processes and culture in Australia. The note focuses on new buildings. The way in which new buildings are financed and delivered generally differs significantly from retrofit projects being undertaken by building owners. Building owners can more easily factor long term operational costs of their buildings into their retrofit project financing. Typically, building developers are not the long-term owners, operators or tenants of the buildings that they deliver. Their projects are normally sold before or soon after completion to unrelated parties such as property trusts, superannuation funds, and other investors. It is this discontinuity in development and ownership of new buildings that creates perhaps the single biggest challenge to the uptake of ESD for the property industry

An Adaptive Design Methodology for Reduction of Product Development Risk

Embedded systems interaction with environment inherently complicates understanding of requirements and their correct implementation. However, product uncertainty is highest during early stages of development. Design verification is an essential step in the development of any system, especially for Embedded System. This paper introduces a novel adaptive design methodology, which incorporates step-wise prototyping and verification. With each adaptive step product-realization level is enhanced while decreasing the level of product uncertainty, thereby reducing the overall costs. The back-bone of this frame-work is the development of Domain Specific Operational (DOP) Model and the associated Verification Instrumentation for Test and Evaluation, developed based on the DOP model. Together they generate functionally valid test-sequence for carrying out prototype evaluation. With the help of a case study 'Multimode Detection Subsystem' the application of this method is sketched. The design methodologies can be compared by defining and computing a generic performance criterion like Average design-cycle Risk. For the case study, by computing Average design-cycle Risk, it is shown that the adaptive method reduces the product development risk for a small increase in the total design cycle time.Comment: 21 pages, 9 figure

Business process simulation: An alternative modelling technique for the information system development process

This paper discusses the idea that even though information systems development (ISD) approaches have long advocated the use of integrated organisational views, the modelling techniques used have not been adapted accordingly and remain focused on the automated information system (IS) solution. Existing research provides evidence that business process simulation (BPS) can be used at different points in the ISD process to provide better integrated organisational views that aid the design of appropriate IS solutions. Despite this fact, research in this area is not extensive; suggesting that the potential of using BPS for the ISD process is not yet well understood. The paper uses the findings from three different case studies to illustrate the ways BPS has been used at different points in the ISD process. It compares the results against IS modelling techniques, highlighting the advantages and disadvantages that BPS has over the latter. The research necessary to develop appropriate BPS tools and give guidance on their use in the ISD process is discussed

A dynamic systems engineering methodology research study. Phase 2: Evaluating methodologies, tools, and techniques for applicability to NASA's systems projects

A study of NASA's Systems Management Policy (SMP) concluded that the primary methodology being used by the Mission Operations and Data Systems Directorate and its subordinate, the Networks Division, is very effective. Still some unmet needs were identified. This study involved evaluating methodologies, tools, and techniques with the potential for resolving the previously identified deficiencies. Six preselected methodologies being used by other organizations with similar development problems were studied. The study revealed a wide range of significant differences in structure. Each system had some strengths but none will satisfy all of the needs of the Networks Division. Areas for improvement of the methodology being used by the Networks Division are listed with recommendations for specific action