Data-Driven Design of On-Demand Multimodal Transit Systems

Across the United States, public transit agencies are facing trends of decreasing ridership. Especially during and since the COVID-19 pandemic, reduced ridership caused many agencies to have significant budget deficits due the to the high-fixed cost of traditional transit systems. Many transit planners are exploring network redesign to address these changing ridership patterns and their budget deficits. On-demand services have previous been used in smaller cities, and more rural areas and for paratransit services, but now larger cities are starting to explore using on-demand services to help supplement their fixed route services to create a more accessible and scalable system. On-demand Multimodal Transit Systems may be an accessible, scalable solution for first and last mile issues that often plague many transportation systems. Chapter 2 presents a novel methodology to help transit agencies with their tactical planning for post-game ridership of large events. The methodology has three main steps: (1) predicting the total post-game ridership; (2) combining the total prediction with historical trends to forecast the passenger flow curve at nearby stations after the game; and (3) estimating the required train frequencies to serve these customers with minimal passengers left behind by each train. Additionally, this chapter proposes a suite of data-driven techniques that together create a data-driven pipeline to exploit Automated Fare Collection (AFC) data for evaluating, anticipating, and managing the performance of transit systems. This chapter includes a case study where the proposed pipeline is used to generate an adjusted train schedule for the post-game period and simulated with the rail ridership data from the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority (MARTA). The simulation results highlight how the proposed schedules based on the estimated required post-game train frequencies could significantly improve post-game congestion and wait time. Chapter 3 studies the resiliency during a pandemic of On-Demand Multimodal Transit Systems (ODMTS), a new generation of transit systems that combine a network of high-frequency trains and buses with on-demand shuttles to serve the first and last miles and act as feeders to the fixed network. A limit is imposed on the number of passenger transfers with a new network design model leveraging a transfer-expanded graph. It presents a case study for the city of Atlanta and evaluates ODMTS for multiple scenarios of depressed demand and social distancing representing various stages of the pandemic. The case study relies on a real data from MARTA, an optimization pipeline for the design of ODMTS, and a detailed simulation of these designs. The case study demonstrates how ODMTS provide a resilient solution in terms of cost, convenience, and accessibility for this wide range of scenarios. Chapter 4 addresses to what extent On-Demand Multimodal Transit Systems (ODMTS) in combination with Dedicated Bus Lanes (DBLs) improve the attractiveness of public transit under various congestion scenarios. Previous case studies have shown that ODMTS may simultaneously improve travel time, reduce system cost, and attract new passengers compared to existing fixed-route systems. However, none of these studies include the effect of congestion on the travel times, adoption, and cost of the ODMTS. This paper introduces new methods to help model the ODMTS under various congestion scenarios as part of a case study in the Metro Atlanta Area, analyzing the system both with and without DBLs. The results show that an ODMTS with DBLs and synchronization could make public transit a viable, accessible option for many more people, especially in currently underserved areas. Higher congestion actually leads an ODMTS with DBLs to be faster than a direct trip by car in some cases by mitigating the negative impact of congestion on the most congested corridor. Chapter 5 presents a novel mixed-integer program (MIP) formulation to incorporate bus line design into the network design problem for On-Demand Multimodal Transit Systems (ODMTS) that allows the model to accurately capture wait time and transfer costs in addition to travel time and vehicle costs. To solve large-scale instances, a two-stage reformulation is presented where the first-stage problem decides which bus arcs to open and decides which arcs immediately follow and the second-stage problem decides the multimodal path for each individual trip. The solution method is based on the Benders decomposition method and uses disaggregated subproblems and Pareto-optimal cuts. This chapter includes a case study of the Metro Atlanta Area with instances that have up to 43,000 unique trips and hundreds of bus arcs for potential lines. The results show there was a significant reduction in number of transfers for individuals when considering the bus lines as part of the network design phase.Ph.D

Doctor of Philosophy

dissertationA safe and secure transportation system is critical to providing protection to those who employ it. Safety is being increasingly demanded within the transportation system and transportation facilities and services will need to adapt to change to provide it. This dissertation provides innovate methodologies to identify current shortcomings and provide theoretic frameworks for enhancing the safety and security of the transportation network. This dissertation is designed to provide multilevel enhanced safety and security within the transportation network by providing methodologies to identify, monitor, and control major hazards associated within the transportation network. The risks specifically addressed are: (1) enhancing nuclear materials sensor networks to better deter and interdict smugglers, (2) use game theory as an interdiction model to design better sensor networks and forensically track smugglers, (3) incorporate safety into regional transportation planning to provide decision-makers a basis for choosing safety design alternatives, and (4) use a simplified car-following model that can incorporate errors to predict situational-dependent safety effects of distracted driving in an ITS infrastructure to deploy live-saving countermeasures

Solving Multi-objective Integer Programs using Convex Preference Cones

Esta encuesta tiene dos objetivos: en primer lugar, identificar a los individuos que fueron víctimas de algún tipo de delito y la manera en que ocurrió el mismo. En segundo lugar, medir la eficacia de las distintas autoridades competentes una vez que los individuos denunciaron el delito que sufrieron. Adicionalmente la ENVEI busca indagar las percepciones que los ciudadanos tienen sobre las instituciones de justicia y el estado de derecho en Méxic

Design and Analysis of Mobility Permit-based Traffic Management Schemes

High demand for mobility has undeniably been causing numerous negative impacts on the economy, the society and the environment. As a potential solution to address this challenge, a rapid transition is taking place in the transportation sector with emerging concepts of mobility marketplace. The basic premise is to treat the transportation system and its use as a collection of commodities or services that can be bought from the transportation market. This concept is increasingly becoming a reality with the technological developments in automotive industry such as connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs). However, there are many policy, design and operation related issues that must be addressed before these traffic management schemes become reality. This thesis research aims at addressing some of these challenges and issues with a specific focus on the two most promising market-driven instruments, namely, mobility permits (MP)- and mobility credits (MC)-based traffic management schemes, which have been proposed to manage travel demand and mitigate traffic congestion by controlling roadway-use right. This research has made several distinctive contributions into the literature. We first conduct a critical review of the state-of-the-art methodological advances on MP- and MC-based travel demand management schemes. We synthesize the relevant body of literature with an in-depth discussion on related studies to provide an improved understanding of the fundamental constructs of these problems, including problem variants, methodologies, and modeling attributes. We also discuss the research gaps and challenges and suggest some possible perspectives and directions for future research. Based on the gaps identified in the literature review, an integrated framework is proposed for implementing various roadway-use right-based traffic management programs such as MP and MC-based schemes. This framework entails a unique construct for integrating the needs of multiple stakeholders (e.g., road users and authorities), diverse network conditions, and traffic control methods. It allows easy incorporation of different components required for implementing a coordinative mobility scheme, taking into account the influence of the participating players and the underlying issues. The framework can be served as a road-map to future studies on different roadway-use right-based solutions for traffic congestion management. With our proposed framework, we then focus on addressing various specific challenges arising in designing and implementing MP-based and MC-based schemes, such as, representation of realistic user characteristics (e.g., utility function, user priorities and cooperation), availability of information on users and traffic conditions, uncertainty in system conditions and user behaviors, and circulation of mobility rights in market place. For the MP-based scheme, we focus specifically on designing a mobility scheme for single-bottleneck roadways. Roads with bridges, tunnels and business districts with limited parking spaces are the most obvious examples of a simple roadway with a single-bottleneck in a transportation network. We deal with observing operational objectives, specifically, balancing efficiency, equity (users priorities), and revenue outcome of distributing mobility permits under the “fairness” constraint. We explore the theoretical properties of the proposed scheme and show that the proposed scheme can achieve an optimal traffic pattern. Particularly, we show that the proposed scheme is a Pareto-improving and strategy-proof scheme capable of achieving efficient and effective market prices suitable for travelers. Our computational results indicate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme as an alternative solution for MP-based traffic management on single-bottleneck roadways. We then investigate the case of traffic congestion management in a general road network through a MC-based scheme. Specifically, we propose a MC-based traffic management scheme in a road network consisting of a mixed-fleet traffic with connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) and conventional vehicles (non-CAVs). The basic premise of the proposed scheme is to regulate or influence travel demand and congestion with regards to the supply (capacity) of road networks, implementing a market-driven traffic management paradigm. A set of revenue-neutral, Pareto-improving MC-based charge and reward policies applicable to stochastic traffic environments are developed, considering different characteristics of users such as cooperative versus selfish routing behaviors, human-associated factors (e.g., level of uncertainty) and interactions due to a shared infrastructure setting. Path-free mathematical programming models are formulated, obviating computationally intractable path enumeration process pertinent to the existing studies. This makes the proposed scheme suitable for examining the theoretical characteristics of large-scale realistic transport networks. We examine several theoretical properties related to the proposed MC-based scheme, including the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium price, and existence of Pareto-improving credit charges and rewards rates that can promote travel decision behaviors of individual travelers towards a network-wide optimal state. Our comprehensive computational results indicate that the proposed MC-based scheme can be an effective tool for managing travel demand and routing decisions in mixed-vehicle traffic settings

Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments

This book presents the collection of fifty two papers which were presented on the First International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY ’08 - Management, Technology and Learning for Individuals, Organisations and Society in Turbulent Environments, held in Ofir, Portugal, from 25th to 27th of June, 2008. The main motive of the meeting was the growing awareness of the importance of the sustainability issue. This importance had emerged from the growing uncertainty of the market behaviour that leads to the characterization of the market, i.e. environment, as turbulent. Actually, the characterization of the environment as uncertain and turbulent reflects the fact that the traditional technocratic and/or socio-technical approaches cannot effectively and efficiently lead with the present situation. In other words, the rise of the sustainability issue means the quest for new instruments to deal with uncertainty and/or turbulence. The sustainability issue has a complex nature and solutions are sought in a wide range of domains and instruments to achieve and manage it. The domains range from environmental sustainability (referring to natural environment) through organisational and business sustainability towards social sustainability. Concerning the instruments for sustainability, they range from traditional engineering and management methodologies towards “soft” instruments such as knowledge, learning, creativity. The papers in this book address virtually whole sustainability problems space in a greater or lesser extent. However, although the uncertainty and/or turbulence, or in other words the dynamic properties, come from coupling of management, technology, learning, individuals, organisations and society, meaning that everything is at the same time effect and cause, we wanted to put the emphasis on business with the intention to address primarily the companies and their businesses. From this reason, the main title of the book is “Business Sustainability” but with the approach of coupling Management, Technology and Learning for individuals, organisations and society in Turbulent Environments. Concerning the First International Conference on BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, its particularity was that it had served primarily as a learning environment in which the papers published in this book were the ground for further individual and collective growth in understanding and perception of sustainability and capacity for building new instruments for business sustainability. In that respect, the methodology of the conference work was basically dialogical, meaning promoting dialog on the papers, but also including formal paper presentations. In this way, the conference presented a rich space for satisfying different authors’ and participants’ needs. Additionally, promoting the widest and global learning environment and participativeness, the Conference Organisation provided the broadcasting over Internet of the Conference sessions, dialogical and formal presentations, for all authors’ and participants’ institutions, as an innovative Conference feature. In these terms, this book could also be understood as a complementary instrument to the Conference authors’ and participants’, but also to the wider readerships’ interested in the sustainability issues. The book brought together 97 authors from 10 countries, namely from Australia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Sweden and United Kingdom. The authors “ranged” from senior and renowned scientists to young researchers providing a rich and learning environment. At the end, the editors hope and would like that this book will be useful, meeting the expectation of the authors and wider readership and serving for enhancing the individual and collective learning, and to incentive further scientific development and creation of new papers. Also, the editors would use this opportunity to announce the intention to continue with new editions of the conference and subsequent editions of accompanying books on the subject of BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY, the second of which is planned for year 2011.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Empirical Game Theoretic Models for Autonomous Driving: Methods and Applications

In recent years, there has been enormous public interest in autonomous vehicles (AV), with more than 80 billion dollars invested in self-driving car technology. However, for the foreseeable future, self-driving cars will interact with human driven vehicles and other human road users, such as pedestrians and cyclists. Therefore, in order to ensure safe operation of AVs, there is need for computational models of humans traffic behaviour that can be used for testing and verification of autonomous vehicles. Game theoretic models of human driving behaviour is a promising computational tool that can be used in many phases of AV development. However, traditional game theoretic models are typically built around the idea of rationality, i.e., selection of the most optimal action based on individual preferences. In reality, not only is it hard to infer diverse human preferences from observational data, but real-world traffic shows that humans rarely choose the most optimal action that a computational model suggests. The thesis makes a set of methodological contributions towards modelling sub-optimality in driving behaviour within a game theoretic framework. These include solution concepts that account for boundedly rational behaviour in hierarchical games, addressing challenges of bounded rationality in dynamic games, and estimation of multi-objective utility aggregation from observational data. Each of these contributions are evaluated based on a novel multi-agent traffic dataset. Building on the game theoretic models, the second part of the thesis demonstrates the application of the models by developing novel safety validation methodologies for testing AV planners. The first application is an automated generation of interpretable variations of lane change behaviour based on Quantal Best Response model. The proposed model is shown to be effective for generating both rare-event situations and to replicate the typical behaviour distribution observed in naturalistic data. The second application is safety validation of strategic planners in situations of dynamic occlusion. Using the concept of hypergames, in which different agents have different views of the game, the thesis develops a new safety surrogate metric, dynamic occlusion risk (DOR), that can be used to evaluate the risk associated with each action in situations of dynamic occlusion. The thesis concludes with a taxonomy of strategic interactions that maps complex design specific strategies in a game to a simpler taxonomy of traffic interactions. Regulations around what strategies an AV should execute in traffic can be developed over the simpler taxonomy, and a process of automated mapping can protect the proprietary design decisions of an AV manufacturer

Housing quality and lost (public) space in Croatia

IN ENGLISH: In the post-socialist period and within the current social transition context, urban and rural Croatia has, just like other transition countries, experienced many changes in the social structure and space. One example is the housing quality which is a replica of the situation in the Croatian society and has also undergone some major changes. Socially oriented housing construction co-financed by the state and the cities is in an unfavourable position compared to private housing construction. In the last twenty years the amount of the social housing construction has been only a minor part of the total contruction work in the country. For instance, out of nine newly planned residential housing developments in Zagreb, the capital city, only three have been completed and the work on the rest of them has stopped and is unlikely to continue. Private construction work prevails especially on the edge of the city and is characterised by high density housing. This type of housing construction doesn't benefit the majority of citizens in search of accommodation (price per square meter is too high, low-quality building). There is also a big problem of the community facilities (primary and secondary infrastructure, schools, kindergartens, playgrounds, green areas, sidewalks, public transport etc.). The existing globalisation-transition circumstances of the Croatian society corroborate the fact which experts of various profiles often point out: ignoring the process of (urban) planning will irreparably damage the space. The city transformation shows the absence of comprehensive urban planning which results in an ever increasing number of random buildings which do not fit in the surroundings. This leads up to yet another important issue – the shrinking and, in some cases, disappearance of public space which becomes the “lost space“. In recent years there has been a lot of building in the city core and on the edge which does not quite fit in the existing urban structure, image or the skyline of the city. The current situation in the process of planning can be characterized as a conflict and imbalance between the powerful actors (mostly political and economic) and less powerful actors (mostly professional and civil). The actors who have the political power and influence and the ones who possess the capital are forming an “alliance” between two important layers of the social structure. The lack of civil and professional actors, “lost spatial actors”, and therefore of civic aggregation is also present and that is also the cause of public space “disappearance” and undermined process of public participation. --------------- IN CROATIAN: U postsocijalističkom razdoblju i trenutnom tranzicijskom kontekstu urbana i ruralna Hrvatska su, kao i ostale tranzicijske zemlje, doživjele mnoge promjene u društvenoj strukturi i samom prostoru. Na primjeru kvalitete stanovanja kao replike stanja u hrvatskom društvu mogu se vidjeti značajne promjene. Društveno usmjerena stambena izgradnja sufinancirana od strane države i gradova je stoga rjeđa i u nepovoljnijoj je situaciji prema privatnoj stanogradnji. Zadnjih dvadeset godina udjel socijalne stambene gradnje je zanemariv u ukupnoj izgradnji na razini zemlje. Primjerice, od devet planiranih stambenih naselja izgrađenih po modelu POS-a u Zagrebu samo su tri i završena. Na ostalima je proces gradnje zastao i ne čini se da će se privesti kraju. Privatna je gradnje prisutnija, posebno na rubovima grada, a obilježava je visoka gustoća gradnje. Ovakav tip gradnje ne odgovara većini stanovnika koji su u procesu potražnje stambene nekretnine (visoka cijena kvadratnog metra, a slaba kvaliteta gradnje). Postoji također i problem nedostatne opremljenosti susjedstva (primarna i sekundarna infrastruktura, škole, vrtići, igrališta, zelene površine, pješačke staze, javni transport itd.). Navedene globalizacijsko-tranzicijske okolnosti hrvatskog društva potvrđuju ono što eksperti različitih profila ističu, a to je da će ignoriranje procesa (urbanog) planiranja nepovratno uništiti prostor gradova. Ovakve transformacije pokazuju nedostatak sustavnog urbanog planiranja što rezultira sve većim brojem zgrada koje se ne uklapaju u neposrednu okolinu. To nadalje dovodi do drugog važnog aspekta – smanjivanja i u nekim slučajevima, nestanka javnog prostora koji postaje „izgubljeni prostor“. Posljednjih je godina izgrađen velik broj zgrada, i u središtu i na rubovima grada, koje se ne uklapaju u postojeću urbanu strukturu, izgled ili vizuru grada. Ovakvu situaciju obilježavaju sukob i neravnoteža između moćnijih društvenih aktera (većinom političkih i ekonomskih) i onih manje moćnih (većinom profesionalnih i civilnih). Politički i ekonomski akteri se često povezuju u „savez“ dvaju najjačih u društvenoj strukturi. S druge strane nedostatak utjecaja civilnih i profesionalnih aktera kao „izgubljenih prostornih aktera“ dovodi do „nestanka“ javnih prostora te smanjenja važnosti procesa participacije (sudjelovanja javnosti)