Expert Elicitation for Reliable System Design

This paper reviews the role of expert judgement to support reliability assessments within the systems engineering design process. Generic design processes are described to give the context and a discussion is given about the nature of the reliability assessments required in the different systems engineering phases. It is argued that, as far as meeting reliability requirements is concerned, the whole design process is more akin to a statistical control process than to a straightforward statistical problem of assessing an unknown distribution. This leads to features of the expert judgement problem in the design context which are substantially different from those seen, for example, in risk assessment. In particular, the role of experts in problem structuring and in developing failure mitigation options is much more prominent, and there is a need to take into account the reliability potential for future mitigation measures downstream in the system life cycle. An overview is given of the stakeholders typically involved in large scale systems engineering design projects, and this is used to argue the need for methods that expose potential judgemental biases in order to generate analyses that can be said to provide rational consensus about uncertainties. Finally, a number of key points are developed with the aim of moving toward a framework that provides a holistic method for tracking reliability assessment through the design process.Comment: This paper commented in: [arXiv:0708.0285], [arXiv:0708.0287], [arXiv:0708.0288]. Rejoinder in [arXiv:0708.0293]. Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/088342306000000510 in the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Active Collaborative Ensemble Tracking

A discriminative ensemble tracker employs multiple classifiers, each of which casts a vote on all of the obtained samples. The votes are then aggregated in an attempt to localize the target object. Such method relies on collective competence and the diversity of the ensemble to approach the target/non-target classification task from different views. However, by updating all of the ensemble using a shared set of samples and their final labels, such diversity is lost or reduced to the diversity provided by the underlying features or internal classifiers' dynamics. Additionally, the classifiers do not exchange information with each other while striving to serve the collective goal, i.e., better classification. In this study, we propose an active collaborative information exchange scheme for ensemble tracking. This, not only orchestrates different classifier towards a common goal but also provides an intelligent update mechanism to keep the diversity of classifiers and to mitigate the shortcomings of one with the others. The data exchange is optimized with regard to an ensemble uncertainty utility function, and the ensemble is updated via co-training. The evaluations demonstrate promising results realized by the proposed algorithm for the real-world online tracking.Comment: AVSS 2017 Submissio

Generalized belief change with imprecise probabilities and graphical models

We provide a theoretical investigation of probabilistic belief revision in complex frameworks, under extended conditions of uncertainty, inconsistency and imprecision. We motivate our kinematical approach by specializing our discussion to probabilistic reasoning with graphical models, whose modular representation allows for efficient inference. Most results in this direction are derived from the relevant work of Chan and Darwiche (2005), that first proved the inter-reducibility of virtual and probabilistic evidence. Such forms of information, deeply distinct in their meaning, are extended to the conditional and imprecise frameworks, allowing further generalizations, e.g. to experts' qualitative assessments. Belief aggregation and iterated revision of a rational agent's belief are also explored

A general framework for quantifying the effects of land-use history on ecosystem dynamics

Land-use legacies are important for explaining present-day ecological patterns and processes. However, an overarching approach to quantify land-use history effects on ecosystem properties is lacking, mainly due to the scarcity of high-quality, complete and detailed data on past land use. We propose a general framework for quantifying the effects of land-use history on ecosystem properties, which is applicable (i) to different ecological processes in various ecosystem types and across trophic levels; and (ii) when historical data are incomplete or of variable quality. The conceptual foundation of our framework is that past land use affects current (and future) ecosystem properties through altering the past values of resources and conditions that are the driving variables of ecosystem responses. We describe and illustrate how Markov chains can be applied to derive past time series of driving variables, and how these time series can be used to improve our understanding of present-day ecosystem properties. We present our framework in a stepwise manner, elucidating its general nature. We illustrate its application through a case study on the importance of past light levels for the contemporary understorey composition of temperate deciduous forest. We found that the understorey shows legacies of past forest management: high past light availability lead to a low proportion of typical forest species in the understorey. Our framework can be a useful tool for quantifying the effect of past land use on ecological patterns and processes and enhancing our understanding of ecosystem dynamics by including legacy effects which have often been ignored

Iterative Amortized Inference

Inference models are a key component in scaling variational inference to deep latent variable models, most notably as encoder networks in variational auto-encoders (VAEs). By replacing conventional optimization-based inference with a learned model, inference is amortized over data examples and therefore more computationally efficient. However, standard inference models are restricted to direct mappings from data to approximate posterior estimates. The failure of these models to reach fully optimized approximate posterior estimates results in an amortization gap. We aim toward closing this gap by proposing iterative inference models, which learn to perform inference optimization through repeatedly encoding gradients. Our approach generalizes standard inference models in VAEs and provides insight into several empirical findings, including top-down inference techniques. We demonstrate the inference optimization capabilities of iterative inference models and show that they outperform standard inference models on several benchmark data sets of images and text.Comment: International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) 201

A probabilistic reasoning and learning system based on Bayesian belief networks

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:DX173015 / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo