Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Driving with Style: Inverse Reinforcement Learning in General-Purpose Planning for Automated Driving

Behavior and motion planning play an important role in automated driving. Traditionally, behavior planners instruct local motion planners with predefined behaviors. Due to the high scene complexity in urban environments, unpredictable situations may occur in which behavior planners fail to match predefined behavior templates. Recently, general-purpose planners have been introduced, combining behavior and local motion planning. These general-purpose planners allow behavior-aware motion planning given a single reward function. However, two challenges arise: First, this function has to map a complex feature space into rewards. Second, the reward function has to be manually tuned by an expert. Manually tuning this reward function becomes a tedious task. In this paper, we propose an approach that relies on human driving demonstrations to automatically tune reward functions. This study offers important insights into the driving style optimization of general-purpose planners with maximum entropy inverse reinforcement learning. We evaluate our approach based on the expected value difference between learned and demonstrated policies. Furthermore, we compare the similarity of human driven trajectories with optimal policies of our planner under learned and expert-tuned reward functions. Our experiments show that we are able to learn reward functions exceeding the level of manual expert tuning without prior domain knowledge.Comment: Appeared at IROS 2019. Accepted version. Added/updated footnote, minor correction in preliminarie

A Model-Predictive Motion Planner for the IARA Autonomous Car

We present the Model-Predictive Motion Planner (MPMP) of the Intelligent Autonomous Robotic Automobile (IARA). IARA is a fully autonomous car that uses a path planner to compute a path from its current position to the desired destination. Using this path, the current position, a goal in the path and a map, IARA's MPMP is able to compute smooth trajectories from its current position to the goal in less than 50 ms. MPMP computes the poses of these trajectories so that they follow the path closely and, at the same time, are at a safe distance of eventual obstacles. Our experiments have shown that MPMP is able to compute trajectories that precisely follow a path produced by a Human driver (distance of 0.15 m in average) while smoothly driving IARA at speeds of up to 32.4 km/h (9 m/s).Comment: This is a preprint. Accepted by 2017 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation (ICRA

Deep Reinforcement Learning and Game Theoretic Monte Carlo Decision Process for Safe and Efficient Lane Change Maneuver and Speed Management

Predicting the states of the surrounding traffic is one of the major problems in automated driving. Maneuvers such as lane change, merge, and exit management could pose challenges in the absence of intervehicular communication and can benefit from driver behavior prediction. Predicting the motion of surrounding vehicles and trajectory planning need to be computationally efficient for real-time implementation. This dissertation presents a decision process model for real-time automated lane change and speed management in highway and urban traffic. In lane change and merge maneuvers, it is important to know how neighboring vehicles will act in the imminent future. Human driver models, probabilistic approaches, rule-base techniques, and machine learning approach have addressed this problem only partially as they do not focus on the behavioral features of the vehicles. The main goal of this research is to develop a fast algorithm that predicts the future states of the neighboring vehicles, runs a fast decision process, and learns the regretfulness and rewardfulness of the executed decisions. The presented algorithm is developed based on level-K game theory to model and predict the interaction between the vehicles. Using deep reinforcement learning, this algorithm encodes and memorizes the past experiences that are recurrently used to reduce the computations and speed up motion planning. Also, we use Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) as an effective tool that is employed nowadays for fast planning in complex and dynamic game environments. This development leverages the computation power efficiently and showcases promising outcomes for maneuver planning and predicting the environment’s dynamics. In the absence of traffic connectivity that may be due to either passenger’s choice of privacy or the vehicle’s lack of technology, this development can be extended and employed in automated vehicles for real-world and practical applications

Motion Planning in Urban Environments: Part I

We present the motion planning framework for an autonomous vehicle navigating through urban environments. Such environments present a number of motion planning challenges, including ultra-reliability, high-speed operation, complex inter-vehicle interaction, parking in large unstructured lots, and constrained maneuvers. Our approach combines a model-predictive trajectory generation algorithm for computing dynamically-feasible actions with two higher-level planners for generating long range plans in both on-road and unstructured areas of the environment. In this Part I of a two-part paper, we describe the underlying trajectory generator and the on-road planning component of this system. We provide examples and results from ldquoBossrdquo, an autonomous SUV that has driven itself over 3000 kilometers and competed in, and won, the Urban Challenge