A pure variation of risk in private-value auctions

We introduce a new method of varying risk that bidders face in first-price and second-price private value auctions. We find that decreasing bidders’ risk in first-price auction reduces the degree of overbidding relative to the risk-neutral Bayesian Nash equilibrium prediction.This finding is consistent with the risk-aversion explanation of overbidding. Furthermore, we apply the method to second-price auctions and find that bidding behavior is robust to manipulating bidders'' risk as generally expected in auction theory.microeconomics ;

THEORY AND MISBEHAVIOR OF FIRST-PRICE AUCTIONS: THE IMPORTANCE OF INFORMATION FEEDBACK IN EXPERIMENTAL MARKETS

This article reports the results of a market experiment designed to test the predictions of the constant relative risk aversion model and to study the importance of information feedback in repeated first-price sealed-bid auctions. The data reveal that introduction of price information feedback implies a significant change of individual behavior. Without price information feedback, the data support the risk neutral Nash equilibrium prediction; with price information feedback, on the other hand, subjects overbid the risk neutral Nash equilibrium significantly. The constant relative risk aversion model is rejected since it predicts overbidding for both feedback conditions.Experimental Economics, First-price Sealed-bid Auctions, Independent Private Value Model, Bidding Theory, Risk Aversion

Vernon Smith's Insomnia and the Dawn of Economics as Experimental Science

This is a commentary on Vernon Smith's contributions to experimental economicsexperimental economics, auctions, public goods, markets, Vernon Smith, ultimatum game, dictator games

A typology of foreign exchange auction markets in sub-Saharan Africa : dynamic models for auction exchange rates

In this analytical sequel to"A Typology of Foreign Exchange Auction Markets in sub-Saharan Africa", the authors compare the micromanagement of different foreign exchange auctions in sub-Saharan Africa. Multi-unit auctions for foreign exchange were introduced in a number of countries in the 1980s and 1990s, in a transitional step toward a credible, sustainable, unified regime, such as efficient interbank market. But there is little understanding of how auction markets function in sub-Saharan Africa, and there has been virtually no research on the causes of frequent policy reversals or of auction failure. One possible cause of failure -- apart from thin markets, macroeconomic laxity, and vulnerability to terms-of-trade shocks and fluctuations in the disbursement of foreign aid -- is the inappropriate design and management of auctions. The authors estimate models for the microdeterminants of the auction rate, using weekly data on foreign exchange auctions for Ghana, Nigeria, Uganda, and Zambia. Among the policy lessons: 1) Nigeria and Zambia failed to unify and stabilize the exchange rate partly because there was no reserve price rule. When bidders learn such a rule, speculative bidding diminishes. 2) The management of a credible, sustainable reserve price policy requires an efficient secondary market. A simple underlying model, synthesized from the theoretical literature on auctions, specifies the auction rate as a function of fundamental variables and structural shift dummies. The repeated, sequential nature of these multi-unit auctions and the nonstationary nature of most of the auction variables are captured empirically by a cointegrated (error connection) framework. In addition to consistently estimating long-run and short-run parameters of auction fundamentals, the error correction model allows asymptotically efficient testing of three policy hypotheses deriving from auction theory: the competitiveness hypothesis, the effect of uncertainty on the auction-determined rate, and the revenue-equivalence hypothesis. In other words, they used these models to test the impact on the level of the auction rate of increased comptetition among bidders, of the effect of uncertainty (proxied by a volatile supply of foreign exchange), and of different pricing mechanisms.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Environmental Economics&Policies

Modeling Carrier Behavior in Sequential Auction Transportation Markets

Online markets for transportation services, in the form of Internet sites that dynamically match shipments (shippers? demand) and transportation capacity (carriers? offer) through auction mechanisms are changing the traditional structure of transportation markets. A general framework for the study of carriers? behavior in a sequential auction transportation marketplace is provided. The unique characteristics of these marketplaces and the sources of difficulty in analyzing the behavior of these marketplaces are discussed. Learning and behavior in a sequential Vickrey auction marketplace is analyzed and simulated. Some results and the overall behavioral framework are also discussed

Emotions in auctions: When and why bidders overbid

The objective of this thesis is to identify situations in which bidders overbid in auctions and to explain overbidding behavior with emotionally motivated bidding behavior. The specific challenge is to identify the comprehensive range of types of emotions that influence bidding behavior based on approaches in emotional psychology. A standard procedure is developed to discuss emotions in auctions and to identify emotional pattern. A special focus is on the design of experiments with real goods

Reducing Risk by Leveraging Information for a Competitive Advantage in Bidding

Sales management is responsible for securing business by submitting bids for contracts to supply their products to wholesalers and retailers. In this case study, the bidding information was organized to improve the process for evaluating each contract using a model. The model is used in daily operations to price products in a frequently repeated, sequential auction environment for contracts awarded to the lowest price. This methodology quantifies three factors in developing a probability distribution describing the potential of winning the contract. These factors include the competitor\u27s reaction to the last winning bid, the second lowest bid and their own bid. Other factors that influence the pricing decision, such as quantity, geography, and number of competitors, are included in the selecting of contracts to build the model. For over a decade, management utilized this technique to maintain over $300 million in sales each year

Online Auctions

The economic literature on online auctions is rapidly growing because of the enormous amount of freely available field data. Moreover, numerous innovations in auction-design features on platforms such as eBay have created excellent research opportunities. In this article, we survey the theoretical, empirical, and experimental research on bidder strategies (including the timing of bids and winner's-curse effects) and seller strategies (including reserve-price policies and the use of buy-now options) in online auctions, as well as some of the literature dealing with online-auction design (including stopping rules and multi-object pricing rules).

Market Experience and willingness to trade: evidence from repeated markets with symmetric and asymmetric information

Many studies have found a gap between willingness-to-pay and willingness-to-accept that is inconsistent with standard theory. There is also evidence that the gap is eroded by experience gained in the laboratory and naturally occurring markets. This paper argues that the gap and the effects of experience are explained by a caution heuristic. This conjecture is tested in a repeated market experiment with symmetric and asymmetric information. The results support the conjecture: people do seem to use heuristics rather than reacting optimally and their behavior adjusts slowly when the environment changes.WTA/WTP disparity, endowment effect, market experience, bounded rationality, asymmetric information