Hole in the wall: informed short selling ahead of private placements

Companies planning a private placement typically gauge the interest of potential buyers before the offering is publicly announced. Regulators are concerned with this practice, called wall-crossing, as it might invite insider trading, especially when the potential investors are hedge funds. We examine privately placed common stock and convertible offerings and find evidence of widespread pre-announcement short selling. We show that pre-announcement short sellers are able to predict announcement day returns. The effects are especially strong when hedge funds are involved and when the number of buyers is high. We also observe pre-announcement trading in the options market

Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change

We study the behavior of U.S. markets both before and after U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, and show that the announcement of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate change causes a financial shock, where the dynamics after the announcement is described by an analogue of the Omori earthquake law. We quantify the rate n(t) of aftershocks following an interest rate change at time T, and find power-law decay which scales as n(t-T) (t-T)^-$\Omega$, with $\Omega$ positive. Surprisingly, we find that the same law describes the rate n'(|t-T|) of "pre-shocks" before the interest rate change at time T. This is the first study to quantitatively relate the size of the market response to the news which caused the shock and to uncover the presence of quantifiable preshocks. We demonstrate that the news associated with interest rate change is responsible for causing both the anticipation before the announcement and the surprise after the announcement. We estimate the magnitude of financial news using the relative difference between the U. S. Treasury Bill and the Federal Funds Effective rate. Our results are consistent with the "sign effect," in which "bad news" has a larger impact than "good news." Furthermore, we observe significant volatility aftershocks, confirming a "market underreaction" that lasts at least 1 trading day.Comment: 16 pages (2-column), 9 Figures, 1 Table; Changes in final version made in response to referee comment

Preliminary Evidence on Takeover Target Returns in Spain: A Note.

This paper measures the share price returns to Spanish takeover targets over the period 1990 to 1994. Using several estimation and testing methods, we show that target shareholders gain significant abnormal returns in the announcement period. In the first part of the year before the announcement period, firms that become targets do not show significant abnormal returns, though there is some significant upturn in the two months before the bid.Takeovers; Target firms; Abnormal residuals; Market model; Spain;

The Discreet Trader

This paper examines insider trading, specifically trades by corporate insiders around quarterly earnings announcements. Announcements were broken up into three categories: earnings above analyst expectations, earnings below expectations, and earnings in line with expectations. Trade data was collected from the thirty companies of the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 2012-’13. The trades were sorted by purchases and sales by date and analyzed with the earnings report of which the trades were made. Only trades in the interval from twenty days before the announcement date to twenty days after the announcement date were considered. The prediction was that corporate insiders would leverage their inside knowledge to delay trading until after the earnings announcement. They would benefit financially by trading after the announcement and draw less attention from the SEC, as they delayed trading until the announcement became public information. However, knowing how the market would react would allow them to make a meditated decision. For an announcement that was below analyst expectations, corporate insiders should buy stock after the market reaction causes the price to drop. Our findings were that corporate insiders did in fact wait until the announcement day and overall were net buyers. The study will give better insights into how corporate insiders trade and how restrictions can be made to stop this insider trading activity

Investment analysts' forecasts of earnings

The literature on investment analysts' forecasts of firms' earnings and their forecast errors is enormous. This paper summarizes the evidence on the distribution of analysts' forecasts and forecast errors using data for all U.S. firms from 1990 to 2004. The evidence indicates substantial asymmetry of earnings, earning forecasts, and forecast errors. There is strong support for average and median earning forecasts being higher than actual earnings a year before the earnings announcement. Such differences between earnings and forecasts also exist across time periods and industries. A month before the earnings announcement, the mean and median differences are small.Investments ; Forecasting

What happens around earning announcements? An investigation of information asymmetry and trading activity in the Saudi market

This paper examines stock returns and trading activities around earnings announcements for listed companies in the Saudi stock market (SSM). Specifically, we examine the levels of stock liquidity, trading activity, volatility, bid-ask spread, asymmetric information and investor trading behaviour around earnings announcements for all firms in the market for the period 2002-2009. Abnormal price and volume reactions around earnings announcements suggest that these announcements produce highly informative contents. The magnitude of the cumulative abnormal returns around earnings announcement is induced by trading activity in the two weeks before the release date. We also show evidence of an increased adverse selection cost around earnings announcement, which is then gradually reduced in the post-announcement period, indicating that earnings announcements reduce uncertainty in the market. We also examine trading behaviour among small and large investors in the market through constructing order imbalance measures. In general, large investors are more sophisticated and show higher informed trading before earnings announcements whereas smaller investors show stronger reaction to news. Moreover, small investors show a buying pattern which is consistent with times-series based earnings surprise. They are net-buyers for good news and net-sellers for bad news portfolios

Market Reaction and Volatility in the Brazilian Stock Market

We perform an event study to investigate stock returns associated to the announcement of equity issues by Brazilian firms between 1992 and 2003 aiming to determine the market reaction before, during, and after the issue announcement. After measuring abnormal returns by OLS, we used ARCH and GARCH models over 70% of the sample. The results show signs of insider information, negative abnormal returns around the announcement, and persistent negative abnormal returns in the long-term after the issue. The results are consistent with the extant empirical literature and show that ARCH/GARCH estimation of abnormal returns is superior to OLS estimation.Brazilian stock market, event study, market reaction, GARCH