34,333 research outputs found
Normativity, interpretation, and Bayesian models
It has been suggested that evaluative normativity should be expunged from the psychology of reasoning. A broadly Davidsonian response to these arguments is presented. It is suggested that two distinctions, between different types of rationality, are more permeable than this argument requires and that the fundamental objection is to selecting theories that make the most rational sense of the data. It is argued that this is inevitable consequence of radical interpretation where understanding others requires assuming they share our own norms of reasoning. This requires evaluative normativity and it is shown that when asked to evaluate othersâ arguments participants conform to rational Bayesian norms. It is suggested that logic and probability are not in competition and that the variety of norms is more limited than the arguments against evaluative normativity suppose. Moreover, the universality of belief ascription suggests that many of our norms are universal and hence evaluative. It is concluded that the union of evaluative normativity and descriptive psychology implicit in Davidson and apparent in the psychology of reasoning is a good thing
A pragmatic argument against equal weighting
We present a minimal pragmatic restriction on the interpretation of the weights in the âEqual Weight Viewâ regarding peer disagreement and show that the view cannot respect it. Based on this result we argue against the view. The restriction is the following one: if an agent, i, assigns an equal or higher weight to another agent, j,, he must be willingâin exchange for a positive and certain paymentâto accept an offer to let a completely rational and sympathetic j choose for him whether to accept a bet with positive expected utility. If i assigns a lower weight to j than to himself, he must not be willing to pay any positive price for letting j choose for him. Respecting the constraint entails, we show, that the impact of disagreement on oneâs degree of belief is not independent of what the disagreement is discovered to be
Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters : [Version 28 Juli 2011]
This paper proposes a new approach for modeling investor fear after rare disasters. The key element is to take into account that investorsâ information about fundamentals driving rare downward jumps in the dividend process is not perfect. Bayesian learning implies that beliefs about the likelihood of rare disasters drop to a much more pessimistic level once a disaster has occurred. Such a shift in beliefs can trigger massive declines in price-dividend ratios. Pessimistic beliefs persist for some time. Thus, belief dynamics are a source of apparent excess volatility relative to a rational expectations benchmark. Due to the low frequency of disasters, even an infinitely-lived investor will remain uncertain about the exact probability. Our analysis is conducted in continuous time and offers closed-form solutions for asset prices. We distinguish between rational and adaptive Bayesian learning. Rational learners account for the possibility of future changes in beliefs in determining their demand for risky assets, while adaptive learners take beliefs as given. Thus, risky assets tend to be lower-valued and price-dividend ratios vary less under adaptive versus rational learning for identical priors. Keywords: beliefs, Bayesian learning, controlled diffusions and jump processes, learning about jumps, adaptive learning, rational learning. JEL classification: D83, G11, C11, D91, E21, D81, C6
Human-Agent Decision-making: Combining Theory and Practice
Extensive work has been conducted both in game theory and logic to model
strategic interaction. An important question is whether we can use these
theories to design agents for interacting with people? On the one hand, they
provide a formal design specification for agent strategies. On the other hand,
people do not necessarily adhere to playing in accordance with these
strategies, and their behavior is affected by a multitude of social and
psychological factors. In this paper we will consider the question of whether
strategies implied by theories of strategic behavior can be used by automated
agents that interact proficiently with people. We will focus on automated
agents that we built that need to interact with people in two negotiation
settings: bargaining and deliberation. For bargaining we will study game-theory
based equilibrium agents and for argumentation we will discuss logic-based
argumentation theory. We will also consider security games and persuasion games
and will discuss the benefits of using equilibrium based agents.Comment: In Proceedings TARK 2015, arXiv:1606.0729
Polymatroid Prophet Inequalities
Consider a gambler and a prophet who observe a sequence of independent,
non-negative numbers. The gambler sees the numbers one-by-one whereas the
prophet sees the entire sequence at once. The goal of both is to decide on
fractions of each number they want to keep so as to maximize the weighted
fractional sum of the numbers chosen.
The classic result of Krengel and Sucheston (1977-78) asserts that if both
the gambler and the prophet can pick one number, then the gambler can do at
least half as well as the prophet. Recently, Kleinberg and Weinberg (2012) have
generalized this result to settings where the numbers that can be chosen are
subject to a matroid constraint.
In this note we go one step further and show that the bound carries over to
settings where the fractions that can be chosen are subject to a polymatroid
constraint. This bound is tight as it is already tight for the simple setting
where the gambler and the prophet can pick only one number. An interesting
application of our result is in mechanism design, where it leads to improved
results for various problems
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